How Did Jerry McNerney Win Reelection?

This week, in one of only two congressional races too close to call, Rep. Jerry McNerney was finally declared the winner in the 11th CD, a swing district east of San Francisco. His opponent, David Harmer, was having too much fun in DC, at the Republican freshman orientation week, to concede.

The latest ballot-tallying updates from the most populous part of the district showed McNerney, D-Pleasanton, again had widened his lead over Republican challenger David Harmer to a margin of 2,475 votes, or about 1 percent of the 237,808 ballots counted. The Associated Press reported fewer than 1,900 ballots remained to be counted.

...McNerney, having secured his third term in the House of Representatives, leads Harmer in Alameda County by about 15.5 percentage points and in Santa Clara County by 8.2 percentage points.

Harmer leads McNerney by 0.15 of a point in Contra Costa County and by 3.6 percentage points in San Joaquin County; that latter number decreased from a 4.3 percentage-point lead as of Nov. 10. San Joaquin County is also where David Christensen, the American Independent nominee for the seat, fared best, with almost 7.1 percent of the votes cast; districtwide, he took about 5.2 percent.

McNerney first ran for Congress, against a very powerful and very corrupt incumbent, Richard "Dirty Dick" Pombo in 2004. McNerney didn't do very well-- scoring just 39% (103,587 votes) to Pombo's 61% (163,582). But McNerney-- and California activists-- sensed a path to victory in 2006 and McNerney never really stopped running. He was unquestionably the grassroots fave for the whole state of California and, primarily because Pombo was something of a caricature of a pollution-loving, sleazy pol, the race took on tremendous national significance. But before McNerney could get to a rematch with Pombo, there was a problem: Rahm Emanuel.

Inexplicably, the junior House Member-- who was widely loathed for his role in forcing enough Democrats to vote for NAFTA to pass what was basically a deadly Republican policy-- was appointed to head the DCCC. He set about recruiting corporate friend, conservative-oriented hacks like Tim Mahoney and Heath Shuler... from sea to shining sea. In California, Emanuel worked through conservative corporate shill, former stock trader and fellow New Dem, Ellen Tauscher in the neighboring 10th CD. Tauscher and Emanuel recruited a less grassroots-oriented, more corporate quasi-Democrat like themselves, Steve Filson, and then worked to drum up institutional support for him (including Nancy Pelosi) and cut off funding and support from McNerney. It was at that point that progressives started flocking to McNerney's banner in a major way. Local unions and the California Democratic Party supported him. Here's part of a post I wrote at the time:

... [U]nlike in many districts where their tactics have worked, Democrats in the 11th CD are too independent and feisty for them and have only pushed back harder against the anti-grassroots, anti-progressive, Inside-the-Beltway Democratic power elite. Filson's pathetic candidacy, despite all the big name Beltway-ites behind him, just has not taken off. McNerney just keeps getting stronger and stronger.

And today something really healthy for the 11th CD and for the California Democratic Party happened. The State Democratic Party Convention told Rahm Emanuel, Nancy Pelosi, Ellen Tauscher and all the other power-for-power's sake Democrats to go screw themselves, voting overwhelmingly to endorse Jerry McNerney. Party rules-- not the ones Emanuel ignores by declaring war on grassroots candidates everywhere in the country, but California Democratic Party rules-- require 60% of the delegates' approval to endorse a candidate in a contested primary. 75% of the delegates voted to endorse McNerney, making it unclear whether or not Emanuel and Tauscher will tell their puppet candidate to pack it up now.

In the end, Emanuel's ex-Republican shill, Filson, only managed to get 28.5% of the primary vote, a stunning defeat for the Inside-the-Beltway Establishment and a major victory for grassroots Democrats and progressives. At that point Emanuel and the DCCC lost all interest in CA-11 and, having forced McNerney to spend $300,000 of the $449,000 he had raised, abandoned him. Independent grasssroots PACs, like Blue America, stepped in, as did-- more importantly-- environmental groups like Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund, Sierra Club, League of Conservation voters, and Clean Water Action. Pouting, Emanuel insisted McNerney had no chance to defeat Pombo. That proved to be a great incentive for progressives to work even harder. In the end Pombo spent $4,629,983 and McNerney spent $2,422,962. McNerney won 109,868 votes (53.2%) to Pombo's 96,396 (46.73%) despite separate campaign appearances by both George W. Bush and Laura Bush. It was one of the sweetest victories on a very good night for grassroots Democrats and progressives around the country.

McNerney had asked people in the district to make a choice. "Do we want more of Richard Pombo protecting Big Oil or do you want to join me and start down a path that leads to energy independence and clean air? Do you want a congressman who continues to subsidize Big Oil or do you want someone who's going to stand up and demand that the oil companies actually pay their fair share? Here in the 11th district, do we want to continue to send Richard Pombo to Washington to cut shady deals that make him and his powerful friends richer, or do we want to restore honesty, integrity and accountability to Congress?"

But then a funny thing happened after election. Jerry McNerney went from a progressive grassroots poster boy to... well... someone who's better than a Republican. He voted to continue Bush's Iraq war policies (then backed away from that position momentarily) and then just sank into a shocking series of positions that alienated virtually all of his most energetic grassroots supporters. By the 111th Congress his ProgressivePunch score was only 52.03, indicating he had voted slightly more frequently with Democrats on contentious, substantive issues than with Republicans. He never joined the Blue Dogs but he voted more conservatively than some of them, including all the California Blue Dogs, Mike Thompson (79.03), Adam Schiff (78.23), Loretta Sanchez (77.78) Joe Baca (68.03), Dennis Cardoza (60.16) and Jim Costa (54.62). In fact, McNerney slipped across the aisle to vote with the Republicans more frequently than any other California Democrat!

Predictably, progressives and activists who had helped propel McNerney into Congress in 2006, were not very enthusiastic about his race this year. He had stopped communicating with progressives entirely and told Bay Area activists to stay away from his campaign. They did. So did plenty of Democratic and left-leaning independent voters.

In 2006 McNerney beat Pombo's support in the district's exurban Republican heartland (San Joaquin County) by racking up big leads in the suburban counties more in sync with the Bay Area. While he only took 49% of San Joaquin, the biggest part of the district, he managed to win with 62% in Alameda, 54% in Contra Costa and 61% in Santa Clara.

In 2008-- with Obama 10 points ahead of McCain (and 9 points ahead of what both Gore and Kerry had done in the district)-- McNerney increased his vote significantly in his first reelection bid. He beat Dean Andal 164,500 (55%) to 133,104 (45%) and won in all four counties, including an unlikely 52-48% win in San Joaquin! He took 64% in Alameda, 56% in Contra Costa and 59% in Santa Clara.

This year, many Democratic voters just stayed home, disillusioned or disinterested. McNerney's percentage went down in every county and he didn't just lose San Joaquin County, but Contra Costa as well. McNerney scored 56% in Alameda, 48% in Contra Costa, 44% in San Joaquin and 52% in Santa Clara.

Harmer outspent him $1,945,407 to $1,752,441 (as of October 13, the last FEC report available), although they each raised about $2.5 million. The DCCC spent $1,031,192.02 attacking Harmer and AFSCME spent ad additional $149,998.80 against him. Harmer didn't get the mega outside spending explosions that could have done to McNerney what they did to Alan Grayson, Mary Jo Kilroy and Carol Shea Porter. Rove ignored the race and the U.S. Chamber only spent $415,184.00. The NRCC's Independent Expenditures in CA-11 only amounted to $357,843.59 and the Club For Growth came to the table with $65,148.88, just barely above what Defenders of Wildlife spent helping McNerney. A GOP anti-choice PAC (Susan B. Anthony List) put up $5,924.08 against McNerney while Planned Parenthood spent $47,911.30 defending him. What was missing was the enthusiasm and activism that money can't buy. It nearly cost McNerney the reelection. The closeness this time guarantees a major effort to defeat him in 2012. The GOP will recruit a strong opponent and make sure he is well-financed. If I were McNerney, I would be seeking to mend some fences with progressives right now.

UPDATE: Someone Knows The Answer To The Question In The Title

This is an e-mail I just got from a very knowledgeable insider who's never steered me wrong:

Jerry survived because he still had the activists working for him - no one wanted that right-winger to win.

His former Chief of Staff, Angela Kouters, who was a Rahm underling was the reason for his turn to the right in his first term in office. She was the one pushing the Blue Dog agenda. She chased off all of the people that got him there.

Well she left Jerry after that first term as it wasn't a good fit for either of them. She went to work for Glenn Nye and they were Blue Dogs to the extreme. Nye is such as asshole that after losing he still refuses to extend unemployment insurance for the 99ers even though he has nothing to lose, and hell he and Kouters might even need UI soon enough.

If you haven't seen this blog posting from a local blogger in Nye's district, it gives you a good overview of Nye and Kouters disasterous political positioning. Basically what she did to Nye, was what she was doing to McNerney, luckily they got rid of her, and Jerry was no longer going around co-sponsoring legislation on immigration from Tom Tancredo, etc.