With Vern Ehlers Retiring, Will His Grand Rapids District's Political Representation Stay The Same, Get Better Or Get Drastically Worse?

The GOP's two top recruits to run for the central Michigan district being abandoned by Vern Ehlers-- Ken Sikkema and Mark Jansen, respectively former and future state Senate majority leaders-- have both demurred. With a PVI of R+9, Michigan's 3rd CD is considered one of the reddest left north of the Mason-Dixon Line (although Bush's 60-38% win over Al Gore in 2000 shrunk last year to a virtual 49-49% tie between McCain and Obama, one of only 3 districts in Michigan McCain won, all very narrowly). Obama startled Michigan Republicans by winning the city of Grand Rapids-- and winning BIG-- as well as Kentwood, Wyoming, and East Grand Rapids in Kent County, Belding, Portland, Ionia, Ronald Township, and North Plains Township in Ionia County, and Hastings and Castleton Township in Barry County, all former Bush territories (except evenly divided Ionia).

Right now the Grand Rapids-centric district's GOP is faced with the prospect of the leading Republican aspirant being a far right ideologue and teabagger type, first term state Rep Justin Amash, someone who was already challenging Ehlers from the right in a primary and someone the mainstream GOP Establishment is very uncomfortable with. Amash is looked on by Grand Rapids Republicans as a kooky Ron Paul type, not as a practical, mainstream conservative pork barrel earmarkers like Ehlers, Paul Henry before him and Harold Sawyer before him. Mainstream Republicans are urging term-limited out state Senator Bill Hardiman, who, if he were to win, would be the only African-American Republican in Congress, to run or, if he refuses, ex-Lt. Governor Dick Posthumus. It's either that or we're going to win up with a second demented Ayn Rand devotee in Congress!

The most plausible Democrats-- in a very uphill race-- look like Pat Miles, Jr., state Rep. Robert Dean, former state Rep Michael Sak, and former Kent County Commissioner Paul Mayhue.