Power Politics In Washington And Tehran

Although neo-con con artists and right-wing opportunists in this country are doing their best to pour fire on, to mix a couple of metaphors, the Iranian powder keg-- positively gleeful at the prospects of spilling innocent blood, of whomever, and of embarrassing President Obama for his cautious, diplomatic reaction-- even solid conservatives like George Will and Dick Lugar were repulsed yesterday when extremists in the GOP started howling for "regime change." Lindsey Graham (R-SC) was especially flaming inflammatory and sure to cause grief to the Iranian patriots struggling against a brutal and paranoid regime increasingly prepared to shoot down its own citizens. Florida's extreme right Senate candidate, Marco Rubio, looked at the troubles there as an opportunity to endear himself to the NRA and to suggest that Iranians ignore Mahatma Gandhi and Martin Luther King and turn to violence (something all hard right Republicans love), exactly the kind of excuse that could save the tottering fascist regime.

[UPDATE: Looks like Politico picked up on Rubio's barbaric twittery indescretion.]

Yesterday as the rift within the ruling elite grew even wider, 5 members of ex-President Hashemi Rafsanjani's family, including his 46 year old daughter Faezeh, were arrested and taken into custody (and then released), a clear warning to the senior ayatollah and Chairman of the Assembly of Experts to not make a move against the Supreme Leader, which the Iranian Constitution empowers the Assembly of Experts to do.

The protests, which started out as a demand for new elections by middle class Iranians in North Tehran has started spreading to labor unions and has split the political and religious elites. Yesterday Ali Larijani, the speaker of Iran’s Parliament and no reformer, urged the Guardian Council to "thoroughly" investigate complaints about the election and said that "a majority of people are of the opinion that the actual election result is different from what was officially announced." At the same time he denounced interference in domestic Iranian politics by the U.S., Britain, France and Germany. The military appears firmly behind the Khamenei-Ahmadinejad clique. The acting head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Gholam Ali Rashid, came down on Mousavi like a ton of bricks yesterday: "We are determined to confront plots by enemies aimed at creating a rift in the nation."

This week, Time Magazine has a good analysis of the Iranian political system and a who's who for beginners. They make the point that "the conflict in Iran thus far has been not so much a wholesale revolt of the masses against the system, as it is a complex struggle for power within Iran's ruling establishment, and a battle over the country's direction." Here's how they rate 'em:

1- Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader for the last 2 decades. "Lacking the charisma, religious rank and founding-father prestige of his predecessor, he sought to bolster his authority by supporting radical Islamic causes and appearing as the avuncular head of the Iranian family."

2- Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a radical right populist-- their version of a teabagger-- who won the presidency in 2005, "styling himself as a populist champion of the little guy against a corrupt establishment, and as a nationalist who flexes Iran's muscle on the world stage... close to the powerful, shadowy political factions and security organizations behind Iran's Supreme Leader."

3- Mir Hossein Mousavi, a former prime minister who has never shown much inclination towards reform until now. He's "promising greater democracy and sober economic management in Iran, and improved relations with the West. Having mounted a remarkable challenge to Ahmadinejad's re-election, his accusation of election fraud and denunciation of 'dictatorship' represents an unprecedented challenge to the status quo by the forces of reform."

4- Mohammed Khatami, a two term president who won a landslide victory in 1997 as a reformer. The Supreme Leader cracked down on his reforms big time and that is probably why he decided to steal the election for Ahmadinejad this time.

5- Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani, one of Iran's richest men, former speaker of parliament and two-term president, current head of the Assembly of Experts, which-- at least theoretically-- could depose Khamenei.

6- Mehdi Karroubi, a former parliament speaker and the only real reformist in the presidential race.

7- Grand Ayatollah Ali Montazeri, has greater religious authority than Khamenei. He was one of the first in the elite to denounce the election results as fraudulent and he's a believer in separation of church and state.

8- Ali Larijani is the current parliament speaker, close to Khamenei but at odds with Ahmadinejad.

9- Major General Mohammed Ali Jafari, head of the 300,000 strong Revolutionary Guard, "the most powerful element in the regime's security forces, running everything from the country's missile systems to the basij militia, whose hundreds of thousands of young men enforce domestic order and have been at the forefront off attacks against those protesting the election result. Reporting to the Supreme Leader, the IRGC, is listed by the U.S. government as a terrorist organization-- and also maintains an extensive business empire in Iran.

10- Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, is the radical right extremist head of the Guardian Council and a close ally of Ahmadinejad. He's in charge of looking into election fraud; he's to Iranian politics as Ann Coulter is to American politics-- except he wields power (and never had a sex change operation).