Senate 2010 (continued): In closely balanced Missouri, will third parties imperil the reelection of Sen. Kit Bond, or the hopes of another Republican?

Sen. Kit Bond and Minoriy Leader Mitch McConnell

by Ken

We talked earlier about the 2010 Senate race shaping up in Texas. Now we move on to:

MISSOURI
seat currently held by Christopher Bond

Earlier we talked about Texas. If Missouri remains a tough state for Democrats, it's no garden paradise for Republicans either. The obvious question for 2010 is, will Sen. Christopher Bond run for reelection? (Bond is a horror show, and by rights ought to be one of the most appalling Republicans in the Senate. It just happens that by the standard of the caliber of Republicans who've been elected, he barely sticks out.) Even if he doesn't, is there any reason to be optimistic about the kind of Democrat who might make the race? In any case, who stands to be helped and hurt by the state's conservative third parties?

The estimable Senate Guru walks us through the 2010 race as it shapes up now:

MO-Sen: Conservative Third Parties Will Play a Significant Role
by: Senate Guru
Mon Dec 15, 2008 at 18:11 PM EST

Missouri's last Senate race was in 2006. According to the official results, Democratic then-state Auditor Claire McCaskill defeated Republican Jim Talent by 48,314 votes. The margin of victory was almost identical to the 47,792 votes earned by Libertarian candidate Frank Gilmour. It can't quantifiably be said that Gilmour's absence alone would have shifted the race to Talent; but, clearly, the presence of a conservative third Party candidate had an impact on the race that could have been pivotal.

Fast forward to the 2010 cycle. The incumbent is Republican Kit Bond, who turns 70 in March. Surely, he may be weighing retirement, but it would not be a shock to the system if he ran for re-election. On the Democratic side, the strongest potential opponent for Bond is Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, who won re-election to her office last month while garnering more votes in a single election than any previous Missourian ever.

The most recent public polling on a potential Bond-Carnahan match-up shows the Republican incumbent in a very vulnerable position. The poll showed Bond leading Carnahan by only 4 points (47-43), equal to the margin of error -- in other words, a statistical dead heat. It is indeed a bad sign for the incumbent that, after three decades serving Missouri in three different statewide offices (state Auditor, Governor and, now, Senator for over two decades), he can't break 50%. Further, the poll showed Bond and Carnahan with nearly identical approval rates, 49% for Bond, 48% for Carnahan; but, Bond's disapproval rate was nearly double that of Carnahan's (43 to 26). In a nutshell, Carnahan starts off basically tied with Bond, and she has also more room for positive growth.

But that's not the end of the bad news for Kit Bond. Missouri's 2006 Senate race featured a conservative third Party candidate whose tally nearly equaled the margin of victory for the Democrat over the Republican. While not every one of Gilmour's votes would have gone to Talent, surely a majority of them likely would have. So what would happen if two conservative third Party candidates ran in Missouri's 2010 Senate race? Kit Bond may find out.

Glenn Nielsen, Chair of the Missouri Libertarian Party, informs me via e-mail:

The Missouri Libertarian Party has run a candidate for every US Senate race since 1988. There is no announced Libertarian candidate for the 2010 US Senate race yet but I know of several Missouri Libertarians who are considering running.

Given the very early stage of the cycle, it's not a surprise that there are no announced Libertarian candidates for Senate yet. However, that several potential candidates are already considering bids suggests that it will be extremely likely that the Missouri Libertarian Party will field a candidate for Senate like they did in 2006. But it doesn't end there.

Donna Ivanovich, Chair of the Constitution Party of Missouri, relays to me via e-mail:

The Constitution Party absolutely is considering this race in 2010 along with that of State Auditor. These are the only 2 statewide races open in 2010 that help us maintain ballot access.

The conservative Constitution Party will likely run a candidate not only to promote its platform but also to maintain ballot access -- in other words, they need to run a candidate.

In 2006, one conservative third party candidate roughly matched the Democrat's margin of victory over the Republican. In 2010, should the race evolve into a match-up between Kit Bond and Robin Carnahan, we could expect a similarly close race. However, instead of one conservative third Party candidate shaving votes from the right flank of the Republican, we will have two such candidates. In a race that could come down to a difference of just a couple of percentage points one way or the other, having two right-leaning third Party candidates each potentially earning a couple percent apiece would mean curtains for Bond.

Given these additional obstacles to the success of Bond's potential re-election bid, perhaps this would further encourage Bond to consider retirement.

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