DC Prognosticators Just Noticed That There's a Tsunami Building

For the whole quarter the lagging indicators who populate the Inside the Beltway political establishment have predicted that the Democrats will probably net 8-12 House seats. The daring ones predicted-- in their giddiest moods-- that the net could be... 20. They're a stupid and clueless as they were in 2006, where the 31 new Democrats came as a shock.

Today Ted Stevens trial wraps up and if he's found guilty his Senate seat is gone. If the jury finds there isn't enough clear evidence to find him guilty he may still lose the election since he is very clearly guilty of having taken bribes and everyone in Alaska knows it. But today's big race shakeup is across Capitol Hill on the House side. CQPolitics altered their ratings on 23 more House races. The 23 races are 23 more that are now less likely to be Republican after November. We discussed 8 races in the Midwest headed in a Democratic direction on Friday. A bunch of lowlife Blue Dogs are safer in Illinois and Indiana and a bunch of Republican Bush rubber stamps are a bit less safe throughout the region; no surprises and... nothing too exciting, although it is looking more and more likely that the robot the GOP has in Cincinnati, Steve Chabot will lose out to a "moderate" Democratic state Rep, Steve Dreihaus. Except one: in Iowa's 4th CD there was something exciting: 7-term incumbent Repug, Tom Latham is no longer considered safe and Becky Greenwald, once considered a "longshot," is now seen as a real contender. You can donate to Becky's campaign on the special ActBlue page targeting GOP hypocrites, like Latham, who voted for Bill Clinton's impeachment.

Today's ratings changes deal with the South and West and many of the changes, at least in the South, presage conservative Democrats replacing fascist-oriented and extremist Republicans. The race with the most national import is in the Orlando CD (FL-08) where two consecutive polls show very progressive and very outspoken Alan Grayson beating tired lard-ass Ric Keller. Still lagging, CQPolitics downgrades Keller's chances by calling it a "toss up." If Grayson does win, his experience and intellect will propel him into a leadership role within the progressive movement. He's another one like Darcy Burner and Donna Edwards who will be important to his own constituents and important to the United States of America. There's not a more important race you can contribute to anywhere. Keeping his powerful TV ads (like this one) are an effective and worthwhile way to spend grassroots contributions.

The one bright spot in Alabama is the 3rd district where far right lunatic fringe Republican Mike Rogers is looking like he could lose to a decent true moderate (not a conservative monstrosity calling himself a moderate), Josh Segall. Last week Josh was added to the DCCC's red to blue program.

Other races where GOP hacks' chances of survival were downgraded include:

FL-24 where Suzanne Kosmas is starting to look like a winner over one of Congress' most corrupt members, Tom Feeney, an Abramoff satellite who hasn't been indicted yet.

KY-02 where David Boswell is gaining on Brett Guthrie is a seat left open by the retirement of Ron Lewis.

LA-01 where Democrat Jim Harlan is looking alive in his battle against far right extremist Steve Scalise, a freshman who won the special election a few months ago to replace Bobby Jindal. I don't see this district changing hands, although Scalise is on the Mean Jean Schmidt/Michele Bachmann level of extremism.

NC-10-- worse even than Scalise is the GOP incumbent, Patrick McHenry, a closet queen, who is being challenged by war hero Daniel Johnson. It's a very red district but Johnson is the right candidate to beat McHenry.

SC-01 where far right zombie Henry Brown is suddenly in jeopardy from Linda Ketner, who has outraised him and out-campaigned him. It's a district where enthusiasm for Obama among African-Americans and young people could propel Ketner to an unlikely win in a district that gave Bush 61% of its vote in 2004.

SC-02 where another Iraq War vet, Rob Miller, is offering a significant challenge to Joe Wilson a congressman who has amassed one of the most disgraceful and radical voting records of anyone in the House.

The West offers far better opportunities for progressives and has more worthwhile races for donors interested in changing the actual conservative bent of Congress. In most of these races, it won't just mean replacing a Republican conservative with a Democratic conservative but replacing a Republican conservative with a real progressive. The new CQPolitics changes include:

AZ-03 where Bob Lord could rid the political system of corrupt hypocrite and bizarre extremist John Shadegg.

CA-03 where extremist Dan Lungren is running neck and neck with very progressive Bill Durston.

CA-26 where Blue Anerica-endorsed Russ Warner is on the verge of making history but replacing right-wing corrupt closet queen David Dreier.

CA-46, where progressive energy maven and Huntington Beach mayor Debbie Cook is virtually tied with one of California's worst representatives from either party, Dana Rohrabacher, who has done more for his pals in the Taliban than he has for Orange County working families.

CA-50 where Nick Leibham is quickly catching up with corrupt GOP lobbyist Brian Bilbray.

ID-01 where the much disliked radical right Bill Sali, who has a well-earned reputation as a liar and a thug, is facing a credible challenge-- and a tied race-- from Walt Minnick.

Now, remember, these were just the changes CQPolitics, looking through their rearview mirror, published today. It doesn't take into account quick moving developments, like Michele Bachmann's national unmasking as a McCarthyite, like Dennis Shulman beating Scott Garrett in last night's debate, or like a shocking endorsement from the staunchly conservative Oakland Press in Michigan's 9th CD for Gary Peters or even Mario Diaz-Balart's psychotic episode. Yes, this is going to be a very good year for Democratic congressional candidates-- and the insiders are just starting to get a sense of the magnitude. It's not coming from the efforts of the DCCC or from any insider groups. It's coming because Americans are tired of being lied to and ripped off by Republicans and their corporate allies. Our program with SaysMe.tv allows netroots activists to pick out ads and TV networks and times of the day they want to run their own advertising for their own campaigns. Please check it out and see if there's a candidate or an ad in the system you'd like to see on local TV. Here's one for Debbie Cook that I particularly like:



For all the talk about how Democrats have a cash advantage over Republicans this cycle, when you look at the ten top-raising House challengers, half of them are Republicans:

1. Multimillionaire Sandy Treadwell (NY-20)- $5.4 million, all but a million of it from his own deep pockets, will be decisively beaten by moderate Democratic freshman Kirsten Gillibrand.

2. Multimillionaire Jim Oberweis (IL-14)- $5 million ($3.8 million from himself), is eager to be beaten by conservative Democrat Bill Foster again.

3. Deborah Honeycutt (GA-13)-- $4.4 million-- is challenging a reactionary corporate Democrat, David Scott, by being far more reactionary and far more corporate. They did this in 2006 as well and he'll beat her again.

6. Multimillionaire Chris Hackett (PA-10)-- $2.7 million, about half from her own deep pockets-- is probably going to be beaten by reactionary Blue Dog Chris Carney who is well financed from the lobbyists and corporate buddies he's made by voting like a Republican.

8. William Russell (PA-12)-- $2.5 million-- has no chance against Jack Murtha but insists on running a scurrilous vanity campaign anyway. He doesn't appear to have filed the paperwork with the FEC that would indicate where he's getting all that money from.