So Now We Find Out If Obama Really Wants To Win... Or Not
One would think that even with McCain doing everything possible to make himself completely implausible as a potential president-- from turning his campaign over to the most institutionally corrupt operators Inside the Beltway (lobbyists who seem to have gone so far as to spark a small war in the Caucases to benefit the campaign), to having clearly warned parents that their children would be drafted into the military-- Obama would be wondering why his polling numbers never get beyond 70%, not why he and McCain are in a statistical dead heat. And, maybe if Obama was 100% white instead of 50%, that would indeed be the case. But he's not and this is America and he's got to deal with it.
In the next few days we'll find out if he really wants to win the presidency. If he does he'll choose the obvious candidate who will rally Democrats, inspire millions of already disallusioned voters and send electric waves through the body politic. And her name isn't Kaine, Biden, Bayh or Sebelius. Hillary was anything but DWT's first choice for president. (We were for the adulterer/liar and then switched to Obama.) If Obama's tactic has been to make us absolutely nauseous with a display of how much worse a running mate he could pick than her, it's worked... it's worked 100%... 200%... a million percent. I'm no fan of Ralph Nader but in this case, he's right. Hillary's the one.
Robert Arena, a guy who knows of what he speaks-- big time-- has a post at AmericaBlog today talking about why McCain has been able to keep Obama from breaking out. There are a lot of bullet points. Here are a couple Obama should fix when he and Hillary are in front of a delirious audience in Denver next week:
• McCain has solidified his base and now gets 87% of Republicans to Obama's 82% of Democrats. There has been no shift in Clinton supporters since June - 72% will vote for Obama, 18% of McCain with 10% undecided. Only 6% of Republican primary voters who supported other candidates indicate they will vote for Obama.
• McCain is now over 50% with white voters, 51% overall, leads Obama in all groups other than college graduates where they are tied, and McCain is now at 60% with white voters in the south, a 7 point move in three weeks. These numbers all mirror the same vote breakdown in 2000 and 2004. The only group that has flipped since 2004 is 18-29 where Obama leads with 51% - a 13 point shift since 2000.
But, of course, there is no way that Obama's judgment is ever going to be even nearly as abysmal as McCain's. Listen to him talking to Larry King about the strongest national defense team in the history of the United States-- and who he would have picked as his running mate had he won the presidency he's been lusting for for so many decades: