NEW POLLING SPELLS VERY BAD NEWS FOR NEW JERSEY'S WORST REACTIONARY-- DENNIS SHULMAN CAN TURN THIS DISTRICT BLUE

Before Rahm Emanuel got off his chain and came crashing into the restaurant where I was meeting with some DCCC staffers the other day, everyone was agreeing about how Dennis Shulman was their personal favorite candidate this year. The guy is amazing and you probably noticed if you participated in his Blue America chat at Firedoglake last November. But can he win a suburban, northern New Jersey seat in a district with a PVI of R +4 and where Kerry only managed to pull 43% of the vote? The incumbent is Scott Garrett, the last of the really far right extremists left in the Northeast. His voting record looks like he represents lunatic fringe communities in Alabama or Texas. He's not only out of step with his own constituents, he is breathtakingly to the right of all the other New Jersey Republican House members! To put it in perspective, this guy is so reactionary that even the most notorious partisan loons like Mean Jean Schmidt, Darrell Issa, Gary Miller, Tom Tancredo and Tim Walberg look almost moderate in comparison! As I've mentioned before, every single member of the New Jersey congressional delegation-- Democrats and Republicans-- signed a letter to Bush opposing oil drilling off the New Jersey Coast... except one: Garrett. And Garrett was the only northern congressman of either party to vote against extending the Voting Rights Act.

Still, up against only token opposition in 2006, Garrett only managed 55% of the vote, his worst electoral performance ever. And this year, he has anything but token opposition. From the insiders at the DCCC, to netroots and grassroots supporters like Blue America, there is tremendous enthusiasm for Dennis. And a poll out today from Momentum Analysis confirms what many in northern New Jersey have felt for a long time-- Garrett is not only extreme in his politics but also extremely vulnerable to a backlash from this mostly moderate constituents who are sick and tired of his partisan games and would like to see some results. Some of the highlights from the poll today:

• A key measure of an incumbent's strength is having a "re-elect" number that approaches or exceeds 50%. Garrett doesn't even come close to meeting this threshold-- fewer than a third (31%) of likely voters, and just over a quarter (27%) of unaffiliated likely voters, say they will re-elect Garrett.
• Garrett is extremely poorly known-- only 30% of likely voters were able to name their Member of Congress, including only 17% of Unaffiliateds.
• Despite the Republican leanings of this sample (41% Republican registration, 23% Democratic), the rejection of President Bush is overwhelming. Two-thirds (68%) of likely voters would like to see their Member of Congress change direction from Bush's policies while only 17% would like their representative to continue them. And a full three-fourths (74%) give Bush negative ratings while only 22% give him positive ratings.

The analysis ended with excellent news-- unless you're Scott Garrett or a reactionary supporter of his brand of extremist politics. "These results suggest that given the current political climate and Garrett's history of voting with Bush's policies will hurt him as voters want to look toward a new direction. Garrett is neither well-known nor well-regarded, is struggling to consolidate his own partisan base. Garrett is undoubtedly vulnerable in his re-election for Congress."

Please allow me to recommend that you consider visiting our Blue America ActBlue Page and giving Dennis a hand to overcome the big corporate lobbyists who are pouring money into their pal Garrett's campaign to try to keep him in office where they now know he will continue to serve the selfish desires of special interests regardless of how it effects working families in New Jersey or across the country.