REPUBLICANS FINALLY HAVE A SHOT-- THOUGH A LONG SHOT-- AT PICKING UP A "DEMOCRATIC" SEAT IN CONGRESS

Alabama Blue Dog Bud Cramer retiring

In 2006 the Democrats won 31 new seats in the House of Representatives, pushing the GOP into minority status for the first time in a dozen years and forcing Bush and the Republicans to go to reactionary Blue Dogs to move their toxic agenda forward. Twenty two rubber stamp Republican incumbents were defeated and the Democrats also picked up 9 seats where Republicans incumbents had resigned or were in prison or were driven from office for molesting young boys Some of the most startling and political significant changes happened when voters chucked out Dick Pombo for Jerry McNerney (CA), Nancy Johnson for Chris Murphy (CT), Anne Northup for John Yarmuth (KY), Jeb Bradley for Carol Shea-Porter (NH), Jim Ryun for Nancy Boyda (KS), Charlie Bass for Paul Hodes (NH), Curt Weldon for Joe Sestak (PA), Mike Fitzpatrick for Patrick Murphy (PA), and Sue Kelly for John Hall (NY). Not a single Democratic seat, in either House, was lost to a Republican; in fact, it was the first time since 1948 that no Republicans won any Democratic seats. And it has been looking like 2008 might see a repeat of that feat.

In 2006 the Republicans didn't bother putting up an opponent to Bud Cramer in northernmost Alabama's 5th congressional district (the TVA part of the state). Even though Kerry only managed 39% of the vote in 2004, local politics is pretty Democratic. In 2004 and 2002 Cramer did have GOP challengers; he won re-election with 73% each year-- down from his 89% in 2000, but still one of the best margins for a district targeted by the opposition anywhere.

The GOP didn't have many real policy problems with Cramer, though. When it comes to tough substantive votes, Cramer votes with Republicans more frequently than with Democrats. One of the founders of the Blue Dogs, Cramer has always been among the 20 Democrats who vote most frequently to rubber stamp Bush's heinous agenda. He surprised everyone today by announcing he isn't running for re-election. "This was a difficult decision, but after 28 years of public service it is time for me to step aside, spend more time with my family and begin another chapter in my life," he said. "I believe that this is a good time for me to step aside and transition to new leadership."

His bombshell threw local politics-- on both sides of the aisle-- into a tizzy, just 3 weeks before the filing deadline. The Huntsville Times looks at potential candidates from both parties in what will no doubt he a highly contested race. Left in Alabama has an excellent appraisal of what we can expect to see there now.

Madison County Democratic Party Chairman Doug Dermody declined to name any likely candidates but said "There will be a strong Democrat running and I'm confident we will hold this seat."

...Given the political climate and the excitement level of local Democrats, there's no way this will be a Republican pickup unless there's a major disaster on the Democratic side. For whatever reason, Cramer has not given much notice, but there are a number of qualified, well-known Democrats who could run a strong campaign in the 5th District.  One of them will likely be the next Congressperson from North Alabama.  Bud Cramer was a founder of the Blue Dog Caucus and was also a Bush Dog, so this is a perfect opportunity to elect an even better Democrat.

...Some names being tossed out by local Democrats:
• Steve Raby - Huntsville political consultant and former aide to the late Sen. Howell Heflin.  His lobbyist ties might be a handicap this year.
• Dr. Parker Griffith - Huntsville resident and State Senator for District 7 elected in 2006.
• Tom Butler - Madison resident and State Senator for District 2, currently serving in his 4th term in the Alabama Senate.  It's worth noting that Butler is one of the Senate Democrats who caucuses with the Republican minority.
• Randy Hinshaw - Meridianville resident and State Rep. for District 21, currently in his second term.
• Susan Parker - Currently serving as Public Service Commissioner, Parker ran a strong campaign for Senate against Jeff Sessions in 2002.  I'm not 100% sure that she still lives in the district, but she's widely known and well liked and would be a very strong candidate if she's interested.