DO ENDORSEMENTS FROM POLITICIANS MEAN ANYTHING IN THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE?

Some endorsements do more harm than good

Florida's two uber-establishmentarian U.S. senators, conservative Democrat Bill Nelson and reactionary Republican Mel Martinez have decided to endorse-- surprise, surprise-- their parties' establishmentarian candidates, Hillary and McCain. Do you think anyone cares? Do you think anyone says, "Oh, look, Bill Nelson has endorsed Hillary. I was going to vote for John Edwards because he's the most progressive and the one who would stand up to Insider interests but I better switch to Hillary?" Or perhaps, "Ugghhh... I was a huge Hillary booster with a sign on my lawn and I was going to do phone banking for her Monday but now that I see that that awful Republican-supporting creep Nelson, who wants to give Bush, Cheney and the telecom criminals retroactive immunity, has endorsed her, I'm switching to Obama?" Or--even a somewhat more plausible scenario: "Martinez is for McCain; isn't McCain the one who wanted to give amnesty to millions of undocumented workers, just like Martinez does? I better switch to that friendly Huckleberry character who wants to round them all up and ship them back to Ireland or wherever they come from?" Uh... no; none of that's too likely.

Perhaps a few undecided Republican Cubans will get the signal that McCain is "good for" the Cuban community and swing in that direction after being impressed with Martinez' "This is a man que habla claro. He talks straight... He's going to be Castro's worst nightmare." And maybe that will help offset the ranting and raving from the most vicious and extremist faction of the GOP screaming about how McCain wants open borders.

Perhaps a slightly more significant endorsement comes from a governor. Florida's very popular governor, Charlie Crist, was widely expected to endorse his buddy McCain but has demurred after McCain came out against his catastrophic hurricane insurance proposal. [UPDATE: Crist just endorsed McCain after all; I guess he meditated about Willard for a couple minutes and figured he'd have to do something to put a stop to that horror.] But two dozen governors-- not counting the ex-governor of New Mexico who endorsed Ron Paul and legalized marijuana-- have endorsed in the presidential primary. Governors, like senators, tend to be pretty establishment characters, And most of the Democrats (10) have gone to Hillary, including the governors of home state New York, neighboring states Pennsylvania and New Jersey and election-key Ohio. Among Republicans McCain and Romney are both super establishmentarian and McCain has attracted 4 endorsements to Willard's 3. Everyone hates Giuliani but Texas' clueless governor Rick Perry has endorsed him-- with ideology far from the fore-- and it has made zero difference in Giuliani's bottom of the barrel poll rankings.

A governor's endorsement can be campaign gold since governors have a built-in bully pulpit they can use to promote a candidate and their own grass-roots organizing and fundraising networks to share.

Come the general election, it's natural for governors to support their party's nominee, and voters take it for granted. That makes governors' backing particularly important now, in the primary and caucus stage of the campaign.

"Voters in the primaries and caucuses are trying to make decisions among candidates that they generally prefer, so those choices tend to be harder," said Paul Beck, an Ohio State University political scientist. "There, a governor's endorsement can be useful."

Here's which governors have endorsed so far:

For Hillary: Ruth Ann Miner (DE), Jon Corzine (NJ), Eliot Spitzer (NY), Martin O'Malley (MD), John Baldacci (ME), Mike Beebe (AR), Jennifer Granholm (MI), Ted Stickland (OH), Ted Kulongoski (OR), and Ed Rendell (PA).

For Obama: Deval Patrick (MA), Rod Blagojevich (IL), Tim Kaine (VA), Jim Doyle (WI), and Janet Napolitano (AZ).

For McCain: Mitch Daniels (IN), Jon Huntsman (UT), Tim Pawlenty (MN), and Jim Douglas(VT).

For Willard: retiring Matt Blunt (MO), Don Carcieri (RI), and Dave Heineman (NE).

For Huckabee: Mike Rounds (SD)

For Giuliani: Mike Perry (TX)

It is expected to all be over after Super Tuesday (February 5). That day there are primaries in Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (Democrats only), Illinois, Kansas (Democrats), Missouri, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Utah, and caucuses in Alaska, Colorado, Minnesota, Montana (Republicans only), New Mexico (Democrats), North Dakota, West Virginia (Republicans). Later in February there are also primaries or caucuses in Louisiana, Kansas, Nebraska, Washington, Maine, Maryland, Virginia, DC, Hawaii, and Wisconsin. The last voting before the national conventions (August 25-28 for the Democrats and September 1-4 for the hapless Republicans in Minneapolis-St. Paul where one of their prominent senators was recently caught soliciting sex from a male undercover policeman) will be on June 3 when Montana Democrats and all South Dakotans have their primaries and New Mexico Republicans caucus.

It's likely that Lou Dobbs' endorsement-- if he makes one-- will have a greater impact on more Republican voters than any of the governors or senators. But in terms of members of Congress, Hillary's got 82 (if you count Bill Nelson), Obama's got 46, Willard has 39, McCain has 35, Giuliani has 25, Edwards has 15, and Huckabee has 5. A note: it would be nice if Hillary and Obama, both of whom swear up and down that they oppose retroactive immunity being included in the FISA bill, used some leadership to convince the senators who support them, to vote with the Democrats on this. Hillary could prove she's a leader by bringing in Evan Bayh, Daniel Inouye, Bill Nelson, Barbara Mikulski, and Mark Pryor, and Obama could do likewise with Tim Johnson, Claire McCaskill and Ben Nelson.