HOW BLUE WILL INDIANA BE IN 2009?

Last year Indiana, the reddest state-- by far-- in the Midwest, saw the defeat of 3 Republican incumbents by Democrats. This was the greatest percentage of any state's delegation to change from red to blue. (There wasn't a single blue to red change anywhere in the U.S., not even in the Old Confederacy.) This year Indiana Republicans are looking for a little payback. They can look as hard as they can, though. 2008 is just not shaping up to be a good year for them. The best news they're likely to get is that all 3 of the newly elected Democrats tend to vote with Republicans more than all but a few hardcore Dixiecrats. Baron Hill, Joe Donnelly, and Brad Ellsworth all have almost identical voting records and when Progressive Punch's Chips Are Down roll call tracking is examined the 3 show up at the very bottom of the barrel.

Republicans hoped they might pick up a seat when Julia Carson announced her retirement due to ill health. Of the 5 Democratic-held congressional seats, IN-07 (Indianapolis and much of surrounding Marion County) has the strongest Democratic registration advantage, Cook Partisan Voting Index of D +9 and can boast of having given Bush only 42% of it's vote in 2004, slightly less than he got in 2000. Carson won the seat last year with 54% of the vote. The Democrats are thinking about running Carson's grandson, City Councilman Andre Carson, although former Indian Democratic Party Chairman Robin Winston is also thinking of running, as are 3 state reps, Carolene Mays, David Orentlicher and Gregory W. Porter, and the recently defeated Indianapolis Mayor, Bart Peterson. The probably GOP nominee will be state Rep Jon Elrod. In giving up his state house seat, Elrod presents the Democrats with a nice gift, since they are sure to take that one back. It is highly unlikely he will be able to beat any viable Democrat in the 7th. And, in fact, Indiana Republicans have something much more serious to worry about. Mitch Daniels is one of the least popular governors in America.

Monday the Indianapolis Star reported that half the voters in Indiana think Daniels, Bush's former failed Budget Director, is doing a poor job, as bad in fact as he did when he worked for Bush. And that's bad. "Half of Hoosiers likely to vote in next year's election disapprove of Gov. Mitch Daniels' performance, and the two Democrats vying for Daniels' job have at least as much voter support as he does, according to a new Indianapolis Star-WTHR (Channel 13) poll."

Rising property taxes, their personal finances, the lease of the Indiana Toll Road and the state's switch to daylight saving time all contributed to Daniels' disapproval rate, the poll of 600 Hoosiers found.

If the election were held today, former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson and Indianapolis architect Jim Schellinger could edge Daniels out, the poll found.

In a head to head match-up with Jill Long Thompson, she beats him 44% to 43% and Jim Schellinger is also ahead, 44% to 40%. Even Republicans are sick of him and hope he loses. Obviously a Republican Party ticket with Daniels up top will be bad for Republicans across the state. It could impact the dim hopes Republicans harbor to pick up any congressional seats and it could give hope to a progressive Democrat, Barry Welsh running an aggressive campaign against far right extremist and Bush rubber stamp Mike Pence (IN-06).


UPDATE: MORE AND BETTER DEMOCRATS

I want to share part of an e-mail I just got from a friend in Indiana, the part about IN-07.

As for IN-07, I am personally pulling for either Robin Winston or David Orentlicher to get into the race. They are both great progressives and Winston has fantastic contacts and fundraising acumen. He led the state party and was a very popular chair when he was there, then left under sunny circumstances to start a political consulting firm. He recently joined the board of the Indiana Progressives organization which is the Indiana DFA affiliate.

David Orentlicher is a state rep from the Northside, old money section of Indy. He is a populist economically and a pragmatic and well respected legislator who has been leading the Democrats on the response to the property tax crisis in Indiana. He is probably my favorite legislator in the General Assembly. He is very even tempered, a doctor by trade and really has great ideas for the health care crisis nationally. I think he has the most potential of any of the folks mentioned as possible Carson replacements. He has in the past and could in the future turn Republican voters into supporters. His district is one of the reddest districts in Indianapolis yet he managed to win by a decent margin in his reelection fight last year.