BLUE AMERICA TARGET PRACTICE: THE U.S. SENATE

You'll recall that just over a week ago we looked at how House districts get targeted-- and how scarce resources are prioritized in one district instead of another. The Senate is somewhat, though not entirely, different. There are fair fewer seats and, unlike the House, only a third of them come up each 2 years. (In the House, of course, all members have to face their constituents every two years.) Senate campaigns are usually-- 9 times out of 10-- much more expensive because they cover entire states, sometimes with several media markets, instead of just a relatively small piece of a state. Wyoming and Delaware are exceptions, of course, because each, having just one at-large representative, has the same exact voters for a congressional race as for a senatorial race.

There are 33 Senate seats up for election in 2008. As things now stand 12 are held by Democrats and 21 are held by Republicans. Obviously this offers the Democratic Party some great potential for expanding a very narrow margin that depends on the cooperation of one of Bush's closest Senate allies, Joe Lieberman, who has already made it abundantly clear that he considers himself more an independent than a Democrat.

Before looking over the opportunities, let's take a look at the Democratic seats. Are any vulnerable? Two Democrats in nominally "safe seats" are thought to be unenthusiastic about serving another 6 years in the Senate: Kerry and Biden. Each would rather be president. Will they run for office? If they do, will they simultaneously ask voters to re-elect them to the Senate (the way Holy Joe did when he ran for vice president in 2000)? If they don't run for president, will either retire? New Jersey Senator Frank Lautenberg has the lowest approval rating of any Democrat (39%) and no one with that low of an approval rating was re-elected in 2006. (Santorum, DeWine, Talent were defeated and each had even lower approval ratings but Chafee and Burns were also defeated and they both had higher approvals, Chafee's being 51%.)

Mary Landreiu is a special case. Her ratings are borderline (54% approve, 42% disapprove) but her problem is that so many voters from the Democratic base (African Americans) have been displaced by Hurricane Katrina that it is possible that Louisiana has slipped out of the realm of partisan contestability for statewide Democrats. Her conservative and pro-Corporate voting record-- among Democratic senators only Max Baucus and Ben Nelson vote more frequently with Republicans-- pleases many Louisiana voters and alienates others. Will Republicans vote for a classic Republican-lite over a real Republican? The Cook Report rates the seat "lean Democrat," which for means they are judging her in gigantic trouble. Even the seats Cook judges as "likely Democrat"-- Pryor (AR), Harkin (IA), Baucus (MT) and Johnson (SD)-- are very troublesome. In the case of Tim Johnson, of course, his health is the key factor. Baucus and Pryor are both hated by progressives, voting with Republicans on substantive matters almost as frequently as they vote with Democrats. There have been persistent rumors in both Arkansas and Montana that these two could face primary challenges.

According to Cook there are more Republican seats in danger than Democratic seats. They see 2 "lean Republican" seats-- Wayne Allard (CO) and Norm Coleman (MN)-- and 4 "likely Republican"-- Susan Collins (ME), John Sununu (NH), Elizabeth Dole (NC) and Crazy James Inhofe (OK). Among the seats that Cook rates as "solid" for the Republicans are 3 held by potential retirees, Chuck Hagel (NE), Pete Domenici (NM) and John "The Torturer" Warner (VA). There has been some talk about Cochran (MS) retiring but he's squelched that already and declared he is running again. Cook rates Gordon Smith (OR) "solid" and that's insane and he rates Ted Stevens (AK) as "solid" despite the fact the longest-serving Republican in the Senate will be 2 weeks short of 85 years old on election day and despite the fact that it has become more and more difficult for him to hide his dementia from the public.

The Republicans up for re-election with the lowest approval ratings at the moment are Allard (44%), Sununu (47%), Texas whacko John Cornyn (45%), Coleman (48%), Inhofe (46%), Dole (52%) and Kansas' Pat Roberts (51%). Only one Republican survived the 2006 elections with an approval rating under 55%: Jon Kyle (AZ) who had a 46% approval and beat Jim Pederson with 53% of the vote.

Cornyn, Allard and Inhofe are the 3 most extremist far right kooks in the lot but that doesn't necessarily make them the most logical targets. Cornyn and Inhofe are, respectively, from Texas and Oklahoma, two very Republican states. Best known for loud claims that global warming is a "hoax," religionist fanatic Inhofe is an embarrassment for moderates and independents in Oklahoma. The wildly popular conservative Democratic governor there, Brad Henry, could beat him. Henry was just re-elected governor with a two-to-one victory over Inhofe's ideological twin from the House, another over-the-line neo-fascist, Ernest Istook (67%-33%).

For those who want to target an extremist though, Allard is the best bet. He isn't well liked or respected in Colorado--there have even been rumors that he will honor his pledge to retire after 2 terms-- and his obsession with gays has made some wonder about his mental stability. The state has been trending more Democratic and Allard barely won a second term (51%). Kerry in 2004 significantly outperformed Gore in 2000 in the state and in November Bill Ritter pulverized Beauprez in the governor's race (with Beauprez' congressional seat going to Democrat Ed Perlmutter by a heavy margin). Mark Udall, a popular Democratic congressman has already tossed his hat into the ring and smart money says he'll be the next senator from Colorado.

New Hampshire is an interesting state for several reasons. Sununu barely beat Governor Jeanne Shaheen in 2002 and several high ranking Republican operatives are in prison now for tampering with that race. Many people feel Sununu was never actually elected and it is likely that Shaheen will run against him and beat him. The fact that both Republican House incumbents were decisively beaten by little-known grassroots Democrats, while John Lynch, the Democratic governor, won in a landslide (74%) and Democrats also took a majority in the state legislature, says that Sununu is very much on the endangered list.

And speaking of endangered Republicans, Norm Coleman is a special case for several reasons. For me personally he's a special case because I'm very aware of what a sleazy and unscrupulous idiot he is. (We were co-secretaries of our elementary school class at PS 197 in Brooklyn and I hope to help Al Franken or whomever the Democrats put up against this clown by revealing all the dirt from grade school.) Coleman was an accidental senator (unless you believe Paul Wellstone's airplane accident was planned by Rove, as many people do). It is likely that Amy Klobuchar's smackdown of Republican wingnut Mark Kennedy in the Senate race in November-- she kept him well below the 40% threshold-- is a harbinger of things to come for Coleman.

At this moment, these are the 3 seats Democrats are most likely to take. Obviously I'm not taking into account the presidential race, which will be in full swing nor what is going on with the economy, the war and other key factors voters will be looking at. But even without speculating about those factors, there are several other Republican seats which could be vulnerable.

Even if John Warner doesn't retire-- he'll be 81 on election day-- and Virginia has been trending blue. Warner, who has gotten more and more cranky lately, is unlikely to want to face the opprobrium of being reminded that he approved Bush's torture legislation. Wildly popular former Governor Mark Warner could beat him. (If Torturer Warner retires, the Republican primary will be one of the political events of the year, pitting Macacawitz against mainstream conservative Tom Davis, either of whom would probably lose to Mark Warner.)

You've probably noticed that both Gordon Smith and Susan Collins have come out hard against the BushMcCain Escalation Doctrine, Smith even referring to Bush's conduct of the war as "criminal." Both are popular Republicans-- Collins far more so-- in Democratic states. Their situations are something like what did in Chafee. When Collins first ran in 1996 she promised to stick to two terms so if she runs again (which is likely) she runs as a liar, something Congressman Tom Allen, the Democrat who will take her on, will certainly point out. Her approval rating, 73%, is inexplicably high.

Beyond that we're in the wishful thinking range. Elizabeth Dole could be vulnerable-- she's not all that popular; she embarrassed the state by being the worst head of the NRSC in history; and no one really believes she's from North Carolina. There are some rumors she could resign. Maybe ex-Governor Jim Hunt could be persuaded to take her on. New Mexico is a Democratic state but Pete Domenici is very popular, inexplicably so. He's also pretty old and could retire. If he runs he's likely to win again. The rest of the Republicans are probably safe-- unless some of the guys who are rumored to have been having sex with Lindsey Graham have pictures.