ARE THERE ANY DEMOCRATS LOOKING AT CALIFORNIA POPULATION SHIFTS AND THINKING ABOUT TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY POLITICS?

A few days ago I went to visit my friend Rick. He had maps up, ominous maps-- he always does-- that show how more and more counties are blood red GOP electoral strongholds. Whenever I see Rick's maps I always tell myself that so many of those counties have hardly any people living in them... I mean I was involved in Robert Rodriguez' congressional campaign so I'm very aware that Mono and Inyo Counties have, respectively 12,509 and 18,156 people-- no matter how much space they take up on the maps. L.A. County was nudging 10,000,000 in 2005. I don't think any Republicans live in Alameda County and they have a million and a half. Modoc County may be red, red, red but there are only 9,524 people living there. Would it make a difference if every single person in Alpine County voted for a Republican-- all 1,159 of them? Rick's maps look scary but I shrugged them off.

Then today I saw a post by a guy I met last week at Rick's house, D-Day. It was a lot scarier than Rick's maps, although the feeling of nausea I always get when I see those damn maps is because I know precisely how to read a map-- and they're not really about Mono and Alpine and Inyo. Rick's maps and D-Day's posts are about the lightning fast growth counties of Southern California, the counties that have been responsible for some of the worst trash infesting the U.S. Congress-- Jerry Lewis, Gary Miller, Ken Calvert, David Dreier, Buck McKeon, Darrell Issa. San Bernardino County has about 2,000,000 people (more than double San Francisco) with a 15% growth rate (as opposed to 6.7% for the state) and Riverside County has another 2,000,000-- and is growing at 26% per year!

D-Day writes that a report from the California Budget Project shows "job growth n the inland counties of the state grew nearly FIVE TIMES LARGER than job growth in the coastal counties between 1990 and 2005. In fact, they've contributed to more than half of the total job growth in the state, despite having only 1/5 of the jobs currently. What used to be bedroom communities in the Inland Empire of SoCal, for example, are now very much self-sustaining and thriving, particularly in the western edges of San Bernardino and Riverside counties."

D-Day considers this as either a very ominous threat for progressives or an incredible opportunity. "The power bases in L.A. and SF are only going to retain their power for so long. Places like Ontario and Auburn are goin to have more and more importance, and it's time RIGHT NOW to ensure that there's some Democratic infrastructure in place to identify and engage people in those areas who share progressive views."

Let me hearken back to Robert Rodriguez' campaign to unseat far right barnacle Buck McKeon in CA-25. The district includes the northeasternmost chunk of L.A. County (the furthest from the beaches) plus northern San Bernardino, and all of Inyo and Mono counties. McKeon had never had any real Democratic opposition-- nor have Gary Miller, Ken Calvert, Jerry Lewis or most of the rest cited above; there is no Democratic infrastructure and almost no Democratic community. The Democratic Party in CD-41 practically functions as a subsidiary of Jerry Lewis, Inc! But over the last year and a half Rodriguez started bringing Democrats together in CA-25 and putting together an effective campaign organization. He didn't beat McKeon but he knocked down his numbers considerably and beat him-- for the first time-- in parts of the district that have had the most rapid growth rate.

Howard Dean's 50 state strategy is also a multi-decade plan. I spoke with a friend from the DCCC the other day. He told me they're concerned with one thing and one thing only: electing Democrats in this cycle, not in the next cycle or, God forbid, 2 cycles from now. If we don't take long-term political development seriously, the way the GOP does, we'll never be able to compete seriously and take advantage of demographic trends that are favorable to Democrats. CA-25, for example, is now a majority non-white district. McKeon is a crusty, out-of-touch old Mormon with ideas and values that went out of style in the 1930s. Over 45% of San Bernardino County is Latino and about a third of the population is under 18 years old, a much younger population than the state in general (27%). Democrats can win in districts like these-- and they must. But it costs money.

Seriously contested seats in 2006 were all won by candidates who raised at least $1,000,000. No exceptions. In CA-04 we came very close with Charlie Brown (who spent $1,700,000) but he was edged by incumbent Repug John Doolittle's $2,342,000. Jerry McNerney beat Dirty Dick Pombo ($2,385,000 vs $4,539,000), partially because of a great deal of independent environmental money spent narrowing the financial gap.

But let's look at the southern California districts that show up in the red counties on Rick's maps. Buck McKeon spent $1,245,000 against Robert Rodriguez' $207,000. David Dreier spent $2,219,000 this year against Cynthia Matthews' anemic $54,000, after she nearly beat him in 2004. Jerry Lewis spent $1,376,000 to defend his seat against Louie Contreras who spent... nothing at all. The Democrats didn't even put someone up against Gary Miller, a vicious extremist and, by far, the most right wing member of the California delegation. Ken Calvert spent over $900,000 against Louis Vandenberg's $8,000. David Roth did manage to put Mary Bono on the defensive by spending over $700,000-- and she doubled what he spent.

One wonders if there's anyone looking at these Inland Empire districts seriously. I don't wonder. I know there isn't.