Thursday, November 02, 2006



I know I'm always goofin' on the goofy Inside-the-Beltway rearview mirror prognosticators like Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato. But that doesn't mean they don't sometimes stumble on some good answers. My problems with their work go much deeper-- like how their cosnervative (as in overly cautious, not as in partisan or fascist) POV leads clueless organziations like the DCCC to target badly-- and dishonestly.

Anyway, today I just want to point out that even these guys are now convinced-- finally-- that the magnitude of the wave about to hit the Republicans is huge. Sabato just put out his Last-Minute Predictions; they're not what Rove wants to see.

As hard as he's tried, he "cannot identify a single election for Senate, House or Governor in which a Republican is likely to succeed a Democrat in office. Just imagine how devastating an absolute shutout would be in the eyes of history if this proves to be true!... If little changes between now and Tuesday, there remains little question that the GOP is headed towards devastating losses. And though candidates continue to stress various issues, only one has truly come to define our politics this year: war. Future historians may well look back on this wave election as 'The Iraq Midterm,' much we look back on the 1966 and 1974 elections as 'The Vietnam Midterm' and 'The Watergate Midterm' respectively."

I see it more as the Bush Regime Midterm but... well, why quibble?

He predicts that the Democrats will gain 6 Senate seats leading to a 51 seat majority with Harry Reid as Leader. And what makes it even sweeter is that his predictions include a loss for reactionary fake-Dem Harold Ford. A Democratic majority without Ford! He predicts Democratic victories in Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia and Washington. Is is also predicting that Lieberman will win in Connecticut but that's the one he'll hopefully get wrong after all the votes are counted.

He's reverted to his overly cautious self for his House predictions only claiming a net gain of 27 seats for the Democrats. And he clearly sees that as the fault of Rahm Emanuel's sheer and absolute incompetence. Sabato has a "creeping suspicion: the decision of both parties to go to bat in the neighborhood of 50 target districts means that Democrats will likely win more than enough races to take control (+23 to 30), but will end up leaving several of their 2nd or 3rd tier candidates stranded on 2nd or 3rd base with 47 or 48 percent of the vote on Election Night."

Sabato sees 81 Republican seats in play, an accurate number. He is now predicting defeats for the following Republicans: J.D. Hayworth (AZ-05), Randy Graf (AZ-08), the nut running against Perlmutter (CO-07), Rob Simmons (CT-02), Chris Shays (CT-04), Nancy Johnson (CT-05), Joe "Foley" Negron (FL-16), Clay Shaw (FL-22), Peter Roskam (IL-06), John Hostettler (IN-08), Mike Sodrel (IN-09), Mike Whalen (IA-01), Geoff Davis (KY-04), Michele Bachman (MN-06), Heather Wilson (NM-01), Charlie Taylor (NC-11), Tom Reynolds (NY-26), Deborah Pryce (OH-15), Joy Padgett (OH-18), Gerlach (PA-06), Curt Weldon (PA-07), Don "The Choker" Sherwood (PA-10), Shelly Sekula-DeLay-Gibbs (TX-22), John Gard (WI-08).

Still too close for Sabato to call is Chocola's seat in Indiana but he must have been smoking crack when he looked at the numbers and, similarly, the open seat in NY-24 looks to me like a done deal for Arcuri.

Republicans whole are losing ground and can still be defeated include Pombo (CA-11), Musgrave (CO-04), Northup (KY-03), Bass (NH-02), Sweeney (NY-20), Chabot (OH-01), Schmidt (OH-02), Fitzpatrick (PA-08). Less likely but with momentum making them more vulnerable by the day are another couple dozen Republicans including Renzi, Doolittle, Kirk, Leach, Ryun, Lewis (KY), Gutknecht, Porter (NV), Ferguson, Kuhl (another example of excessive crack use; Massa is up by double digits and will trample Kuhl), Kelly, Hayes, Cubin and Wolf. There is only one "Democrat" with negative momentum, reactionary fake Dem John Barrow (GA-12) who is unworthy of progressive support.

On Monday I'll show where and why Sabato is off base on quite a few races, although-- alas-- not always to the benefit of Team Blue.


At 4:11 PM, Blogger NoMoreArcuri said...

The BS and desperation are getting thick around here!

You and Sabato must be smokin' some good crack and a lot of it. In fact, it looks like the only way you could smoke any more crack is if you started using a tuba for a stem.

Unlike you and Sabato, I'm here on the ground in the 24th, and Arcuri, despite the twisted polls, is sucking wind.

There is a large get out the vote plan afoot, and Arcuri and Meier are by most estimates, neck in neck.

Further, Mike's alignment with Bill "Sept 11th" Clinton hasn't made his case very well. Mke has 12 years of ignoring and being out of touch with people to overcome.

Its funny how you dismiss what Sabato says except when it fits your smoke and mirrors agenda!

So c'mon, tell us how far Sabato and you are from the 24th?

Your crystal ball, once again, need new batteries!

See you at the vote!

At 4:30 PM, Blogger raven said...

Good call on Barrow, he's a scumbag.

At 4:55 PM, Anonymous teach said...

I just watched them on Hardball, and they sure tried to be a little more optimistic for the Republicans, but it was not convincing to me.

At 10:23 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The pollsters aren't on it yet, but David Roth is positioned to shock the hell out of Palm Springs. The CA-45th hasn't had a viable Democrat these past thirty years (I'm told). Roth is campaigning in person all day, every day, everywhere in the district.

Mary Bono appears in public only if the venue is safely canned, just like Bush. Mary Bono's counting on the usual suspects coming out to vote, and taking her on face value, again.

Thanks to Roth, and you and the rest of the netroots and grassroots, our Rubberstamper is wrong again.

A hundred thousands thanks for what you're doing! It falls to the artists to articulate certain political truths, and thank god you're on it.



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