TOMORROW IS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN. THE LAST 12 MONTHS WERE PRETTY MUCH JUST PRACTICE.

And it gets worse for the Republicans according to today's L.A. Times. "I don't think I've ever before been willing to vote for someone just because of their party affiliation," a Virginia voter told The Times. The voter was walking precincts at the time for Democratic challenger Judy Feder, "even though she knew little about her." But she knew enough-- Feder is opposing long-entrenched rubber stamp nonentity Frank Wolf, who supports Bush on everything.

Bloggers have been fighting this campaign all year-- some much longer. That was all dress rehearsal for what starts on Tuesday. The vast majority of Americans traditionally tune in to politics a little right after Labor Day. Until now, they haven't heard much of anything. They just know they don't like the direction Bush has taken the country.

"Early this year, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report identified 42 House Republican seats as competitive; now it lists 55. The analysis sees only 20 House Democrats in competitive races. Democrats, who need to gain 15 seats to win control, also have narrowed Republicans' traditional advantage in fundraising. The mood of the electorate continues to be clouded by deteriorating conditions in Iraq. 'That's a recipe for a GOP disaster, and there is no reason to believe that things will change dramatically between now and election day to improve Republican prospects,' said Stuart Rothenberg, editor of a nonpartisan newsletter that recently predicted a Democratic takeover of the House."

The way the DCCC is running campaigns-- and forcing their candidates to run their races, soft-pedaling opposition to Iraq and trying to blur differences with Bush and Republicans who are so reviled and discredited-- I would say that without a real tsunami effect, the Democrats don't stand much of a chance. Rahm Emanuel is the least competent DCCC head imaginable and races that should have been nailed down and shut tight by now are still neck and neck. He apparently learned nothing whatsoever from Francine Busby's loss in the CA-50 Special Election. Almost every candidate I talk to tells me off the record that Emanuel is as much an obstacle, if not an outright enemy, than their Republican opponent. And then they tell me that if it weren't for the field organizers that are part of Howard Dean's 50 state strategy they would feel completely on their own. I just can't wait for Emanuel to do his victory dance after the Democats take over Congress despite him.


MONDAY MORNING UPDATE: REUTERS WEIGHS IN WITH MORE DOOM AND GLOOM FOR GOP

"I don't think the question any longer is can Democrats win control of Congress, it's can Republicans do anything to stop it?" said Amy Walter, House analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report newsletter. "All the factors and issues are pushing so strongly against Republicans."

Nor is it only Democrats and non-partisan prognosticators asserting this stuff. Even right wingers agree that the Republicans are going to lose at least The House. "It's too late to fix the national mood-- it's not going to be fixed," said Republican pollster Frank Luntz. "The major issues are not playing well for Republicans this year, and Republicans are not playing well with America this year."


OH... WAIT! UPDATE. I FOUND A RIGHT-WING LOON WITH (MOSTLY) GOOD NEWS FOR THE REPUGS-- AT LEAST IN PENNSYLVANIA

Unless you live in Pottstown, Pennsylvania chances are you've never heard of Tony Phyrillas. He writes a column for the Pottstown Mercury and he has an eponymous political comedy site. He's kind of a poor man's Ann Coulter, only more clueless. Since Labor Day is the official beginning of the political campaign season for most Americans, I decided to find the stupidest prognosticator on the entire web.

Meet Tony Phyrillas, whose column from a couple days ago at WebCommunity, is startling for being wrong about almost everything. Maybe he's ingesting the same stuff Limbaugh does, but... wow... I've just never seen someone be so consistently wrong about almost everything. He predicts a Republican sweep in November. "Gov. Ed Rendell will lose to Lynn Swann... Sen. Rick Santorum will defeat Bob Casey Jr. The more you know about Casey, the less there is to like about this clueless ultra-liberal career bureaucrat." And he predicts victory for the faltering campaigns of almost the entire Pennsylvania Republican rubber stamp congressional caucus: Jim Gerlach, Mike Fitzpatrick, Curt Weldon, etc. He's alone in his predictions (which also include defeat for two incumbents: wildly popular Democratic war hero Jack Murtha and-- his one correct prediction-- GOP sexual predator Don Sherwood.)

This is a man whose online biography tries to insinuate, O'Reilly-style, that he won two Pulitzer Prizes-- he hasn't. I don't know if he's using controlled sustances or not, but unless the Pottstown Mercury is thinking of him as a humorist, he must be sharing something with whomever is in charge there!