GUEST BLOG-- THE TROJAN HORSE: THE NED LAMONT IMPERATIVE

Star A. Decise is a fan of DWT and the author of The Engimatic Paradox, where Jon Stewart's "Daily Show" meets The New York Times' "Week in Review." The blog covers media and politics with a keen eye for humor and hypocrisy. It has an insider's knowledge but retains the public's skepticism. If you look on the blogroll you'll see it. Star agreed to cross-post this awesome Ned Lamont story for us. (Oh, and if reading Star gives you the urge to help out our country by helping Ned Lamont get into the Senate, please consider the DWT ACT BLUE Page, where you can become part of a nationwide movement of people chipping in $5 and $10 and $20 contributions that counter-balance the gigantic bribes corporations pay Lieberman to vote for their pet projects and for policies they favor.)

Once a political backwater with little import and even less voice, Connecticut is emerging as a national bellwether in the 2006 campaign with a chance of influencing the outcome of races across the country.

The key is the Nutmeg Senate race. But that’s caught Democrats on the horns of dilemma – whether to support one of the country’s reigning political powers, Senator Joe Lieberman, who was the Democratic vice presidential candidate in 2000, or his primary challenger, the political neophyte Ned Lamont, a Greenwich cable magnate.

The opening rounds in the primary battle have pitted Democratic activists squarely against state and national leaders. The hierarchy sees Lamont’s campaign as a pyrrhic quest that will wreak havoc no matter the outcome. But for Democratic activists, set adrift by the party’s identity crisis and its mushy message, Lamont’s challenge is priceless, Viagra for the party’s backbone and a chance to rediscover what Democratic means.

The Washington and Hartford criticism has twin thrusts: Lamont, who has established surprising momentum, will devour energy and resources needed to defeat the state’s three Republican representatives, all of whom are considered vulnerable. And that, the critics lament, could cost Democrats a chance to retake control of the House. Many Democrats say it’s simply too big a risk, even if 'Elasticman,' as Lieberman is known, has stretched what it means to be a Democrat beyond recognition.

This hyper-cautious approach stems from Republicans’ control of “everything,” to steal Jon Stewart’s memorable phrase. It has turned Democrats into Washington’s equivalent of cheerleaders, functionaries who can kick and shout but can’t directly affect any legislation. But with control of at least one lever of government, Democrats would command committees and have the power to issue subpoenas, making them a check in the constitutionally anticipated ‘checks and balances.’

Control of the House would allow Democrats to brake, if not stop, Republican’s most extreme legislative impulses, participate in drafting the Congressional agenda and investigate the administration’s most egregious ethical and legal lapses. It would open the door to Congressional hearings on Bush’s domestic wiretapping and his use of intelligence as a political cudgel. And, ultimately, it would pave the way for the House to consider the nuclear option – impeachment.

That’s led party officials in Hartford and Washington to line up cheek by jowl with Lieberman. But their attitude seems anachronistic, myopic and overly influenced by a natural hesitancy to turn on a longtime colleague. Rather than devouring resources, Lamont’s campaign is unleashing infectious energy that could propel Democrats to victory – both in Connecticut and across the country. So rather than cost Democrats the House, it’s likely that Lamont boosts their chances of picking up the 15 seats needed to recapture control.

The Greenwich businessman already has started to arouse the base and to attract Connecticut residents whose disgust with Bush in specific and politics in general had led them to turn off and tune out. Like Gene McCarthy in 1968 or Howard Dean in 2004, Lamont’s appeal sprouted among the political dandelions - those so angry that they were unlikely to get involved with – or vote for – anyone else. Lamont undoubtedly will absorb some resources that might have flowed to the Democrats challenging the incumbent Republican representatives. That’s especially problematic for Chris Murphy, the state senator running against the dean of the Connecticut delegation, Nancy Johnson, the pharmaceutical industry’s favorite daughter whose image as a beloved grandmother has survived her metamorphosis into the wicked witch of the far right.

But, at worst, it’s a temporary roadblock. The Lamont challenge is a primary battle: it will flourish or flounder long before the November election. If Lamont loses, as is currently predicted, Connecticut’s Democratic House candidates will have ample opportunity to recoup and to build on the nascent organization established by the defeated Lamont campaign. So their momentary handicap should be balanced by an expected surge from newly animated Lamont workers. And if Lamont wins, his victory will capture national attention and is likely to enthuse legions of anti-Bush voters - both in Connecticut and in other states. A Lamont primary victory will create the closest thing there is to a national bandwagon in an off-year election and will counter the widespread sense that Democrats stand for nothing. And that could be priceless, an incalculably important benefit to Democratic efforts around the country.

Under the Skin

Still, Democratic leaders in Washington and Hartford fret about the local impact of a Lamont victory. They hope that Lieberman, who is more popular among registered Republicans than among members of his party, will attract GOP voters who will then vote for the Democratic slate in what might be called “the flypaper” philosophy of politics. But it’s a desperate idea - probably a fantasy. Lieberman will certainly win many Republican votes. But while a complex ballot may have befuddled elderly Floridians, it’s unlikely that many Connecticut Republicans will make a similar mistake and vote a straight Democratic line. After giving the nod to their ideological soul mate, Republicans will jump across party lines and split their ballot by voting for their incumbent representative.

So Lieberman is more likely to be a Democratic Trojan horse than a tow truck for the party’s ticket: Republican turnout in the general election is likely to climb if the senator heads the Democratic ticket while Democratic turnout probably will fall. So Lieberman’s name at the top of the ballot may help Connecticut’s three Republican incumbent representatives by depressing Democratic votes. In the worst case scenario, it’s reasonable to argue that Lieberman could cost Democrats three House seats in Connecticut and several more in other states.

That’s the real risk of Lieberman’s campaign. It’s serious enough that even Democrats outside Connecticut should ignore the party’s hierarchy and marshal support for Lamont.