Best Bets For November 3: Mike Siegel (TX-10)

 

Behind the scenes Republican operative gave up on winning back the House early in the campaign. Lately they're realizing that even the "easy" wins are beyond their grasp. They should be able to take back seats from Blue Dogs in deep red districts like SC-01 (R+10), UT-04 (R+13), OK-05 (R+), NY-22 (R+6), MN-07 (R+12), VA-07 (R+6), respectively Joe Cunningham, Ben McAdams, Kendra Horn, Anthony Brindisi, Collin Peterson and Abigail Spanberger, half dozen of the worst incumbents from the Republican wing of the Democratic Party. Their records are unabashedly opposed to everything Democratic voters want. But this is another one of those "any blue will do" years.

Now that Republican operatives have come to realize that the White House and their Senate majority are gone too, they are also seeing something even more scary than not being able to take back seats like the 6 listed above. And that's losing more deep-red districts like them that the DCCC didn't even target.

Here's how that works: the DCCC now routinely destroys progressive candidates when they try to run in primaries in "winnable" district primaries. In "impossible" districts they rarely bother-- or only make a half-assed attempt. In a tsunami year like this one, suddenly some of those "impossible" districts become very winnable. Progressive candidates like Julie Oliver (TX-25, R+11), Adam Christensen (FL-03, R+9), Audrey Denney (CA-01, R+11), Nate McMurray (NY-27, R+11), Liam O'Mara (CA-42, R+9), J.D. Scholten (IA-04, R+11) and Mike Siegel (TX-10, R+9) are all the kinds of progressives the DCCC would normally try to sabotage-- but in districts like those? Why bother?

Winning in the relatively close districts, the top DCCC targets-- like in NY-24 (D+3), NJ-02 (R+1), TX-23 (R+1), PA-01 (R+1), NY-02 (R+3), IL-13 (R+3), and MN-08 (R+4) aren't that big a deal. Republicans will shrug those losses off. It isn't going to make them reexamine what Trump and other neo-fascists have done to their party. But when "safe" GOP incumbents in deep red districts like Roger Williams (TX-25), Doug LaMalfa (CA-01), Ken Calvert (CA-42) and Michael McCaul (TX-10) start losing their seats... that's when it's time for talks about existentialism and for a general party shakeup. If Brian Fitzpatrick loses, it doesn't mean much; if Michael McCaul does... scores of Republican incumbents know they are no longer safe. But can McCaul lose? Two polls show him and Mike Siegel within the margin of error and with all the momentum belonging to Siegel. Dan Solomon did a deep dive for the Texas Monthly last week-- Can a Bernie-Style Democrat Unseat Longtime Republican Representative Michael McCaul in TX-10? And, believe me, that prospect scares the Democratic establishment every single bit as much as it scares the Republican establishment... which is a lot.

"Redistricting did a number on TX-10," wrote Solomon. "It was one of several districts redrawn in 2003 to dilute Democratic-voting Austinites by dividing them among multiple districts dominated by GOP-leaning voters in rural parts of the state (see also: TX-17, TX-21, and TX-25). The Tenth now includes a tiny sliver of Travis County, where Austin is located, as well as parts of Harris County, home of Houston, and stretches through the rural areas between those two cities. The dynamics of the Tenth have flipped: in 2004, after Doggett was redistricted out of TX-10, Democrats declined to put up a challenger to Republican Michael McCaul, who’s held the seat ever since. Democrats have run in the Tenth since then, but for most of McCaul’s tenure, their presence on the ballot barely registered in the ultra-red district. But in 2018, Mike Siegel, running as a progressive Democrat, came within 4.3 points of unseating McCaul. In 2020, Siegel won the Democratic primary again, setting up a rematch of one of 2018’s more surprisingly competitive races."

[McCaul] has cast votes with the current president more than 95 percent of the time, including on the border wall and the Trump tax cuts. He also found himself at the center of the mask-wearing debate earlier this month after Trump tested positive for COVID, when photos and video surfaced of him going without a face mask on a United Airlines flight. (McCaul claimed the mask fell off while he was sleeping, though subsequent video indicates he didn’t wear it while awake, either.) McCaul, whose father-in-law is the founder and former chairman of radio and advertising giant Clear Channel Communications, is one of the richest members of Congress, with a net worth estimated at $113 million. He’s also well funded, having raised more than $2.5 million this cycle, $1.3 million of which he had on hand at of the end of the year’s second quarter.

Many of the Democrats looking to flip traditionally red districts in Texas are running as moderates and trying to court conservative suburban voters who may feel alienated by the Trump-era GOP. Not Mike Siegel, a labor lawyer and former public school teacher, whose platform touts issues including the Green New Deal, racial justice, and Medicare for all. Siegel is also focused on labor reform-- especially ending “at-will” employment, which allows workers to be fired for any (or no) reason-- and dramatically reshaping U.S. housing policy amid the COVID-19 pandemic. He boasts a trio of high-profile endorsements from former Democratic presidential candidates-- Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and Beto O’Rourke-- as well as those of prominent national organizations including the AFL-CIO and Planned Parenthood, and a slew of local politicians, organizations, and newspapers (including the Houston Chronicle).

Siegel has raised $900,000 according to his most recent FEC filing. It’s money he’s been spending at a steady clip: just $164,000 remained as cash on hand at the end of Q2.

The Tenth is changing. Mitt Romney won the district by twenty points in 2012, Trump won by nine points in 2016, and Ted Cruz lost by two-tenths of a percent in 2018. Much of this change has been driven by growth in the urban parts of the district over the last decade, a trend that seems to have kept up after Siegel’s close loss in the 2018 contest: in the last two years, Travis County has added more than 70,000 new voters, while Harris County has added 111,360 to its rolls. (Not every newly registered voter in either county lives in TX-10, of course, but enough of them do to identify the district as one that’s rapidly changing.)

Siegel won Austin by a huge margin in 2018, while McCaul won over voters in the Houston suburbs that year by a narrower (but still comfortable) amount. The rural middle part of the district, meanwhile, also favored McCaul—but 2018 Libertarian party candidate Mike Ryan pulled a whopping 8 percent of the vote outside of Harris and Travis Counties. Siegel could win this year if he runs up the numbers in Austin, keeps it closer in the Houston suburbs, and if the Libertarian on the ballot, Roy Eriksen, can pull votes from McCaul outside of the two cities. (The possibility that third-party candidates could have an impact on close House races led the Texas GOP to sue to keep 44 Libertarians off the ballot earlier this year, though they lost the suit.)

...If Austin turns out in big numbers, and the Houston suburbs prove receptive to a Democrat in the Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez mold, Siegel could win.

Austin is turning out in large numbers... unprecedented large numbers. Conservative prognosticators who have written off Siegel's chance to flip this district may be in for a huge shock a week from tomorrow. And if you want to help, you can click on the Blue America congressional thermometer above or just hit this Turning Texas Blue link. Electing conservative Democrats of the DCCC ilk accomplishes nothing for the American people-- no reform, no systemic change of any kind. Electing men and women like Mike Siegel and Julie Oliver in Texas... that's what makes the Democratic Party worthwhile and a legitimate vehicle for working families. This cycle, it is only by electing candidates like Siegel and Oliver that can cause a genuine GOP reexamination of what kind of sewer they have slipped into over the past few decades.

No One Was Watching TX-10-- Except Mike Siegel's Grassroots Campaign-- And Now Cook Says It's Flippable

Mike Siegel's campaign got some good news and some... well, mixed news, today. The tweet below is the mixed news. Cook Report staffer Dave Wasserman, who gets incredibly more credit as a pundit than he comes close to deserving, mentioned that the very gerrymandered 10th district in Texas-- stretching from north Austin into the far suburbs west of Houston-- is an example of a district that could flip but is also an example of DCCC recruitment failure. The DCCC should be recruiting more top notch candidates like Siegel, not fewer. A keen legal mind and strong progressive, he was never contacted by Wasserman and after he won his primary with over 70% of the vote, the DCCC ignored his campaign entirely so they could concentrate on the kinds of Blue Dog, New Dems, multimillionaires and ex-Republicans they think make better candidates-- the Republican wing of the Democratic Party. When the DCCC doesn't target tough districts, that when good candidates can get in and put together strong campaigns without DCCC interference, the way Randy Bryce did in Wisconsin, J.D. Scholten did in Iowa, Nate McMurray did in western New York and the way Ammar Campa-Najjar did in the sprawling district west of San Diego. DCCC interference has been the death blow for dozens and dozens of campaigns... It's why the contemporary Democratic Party only wins in anti-red wave cycles. Dave Wasserman has never understood that. Perfect for Cook.

The good news was an endorsement from Ted Lieu who is hoping to work with Siegel on the Judiciary Committee, holding Trump accountable. ""Mike Siegel," he wrote, "is committed to protecting our social safety net programs and restoring common decency to our government. With the support of unions, environmental groups, progressive organizations and grassroots advocates, he is running hard across the nine counties of the Texas 10th, letting folks know they will have a strong representative in Congress. I'm happy to endorse Mike Siegel in TX-10 and look forward to serving with him in the next session."



The 3 videos in this post are all being used in Mike's social media campaign between now and election day, along with 9 others. After raising $177K in the previous 3 quarters-- no corporate PAC money of course-- Mike raised $162K in the one quarter that just ended last week. But, he's running against the 4th or 5th richest man in Congress, Trump enabler Michael McCaul, and he's not going to be ouspend him... so he has to out-work him. He told me that the campaign plans "to reach as many as 160,000 persuadable Texans by promoting these ads on digital platforms, sending each message to a specific voter profile. I had a strong 3rd Quarter in fundraising, almost doubling the previous three quarters." To get each of these messages to its intended audience-- including seniors who are starting to vote by mail in Texas-- he needs to raise an additional $25,000 by October 10. Blue America is committed to helping him do just that. The thermometer on the right leads to a page for progressive Democrats, like Mike, who have won their primaries and were then abandoned by the DCCC. Let Dave Wasserman "watch" TX-10 "closely on Election Night," while we help Mike bring this one home for TX-10.

After I posted Ted Lieu's endorsement on Twitter and my Facebook page, people have been asking me why Ted, the DCCC regional vice chair for the West Coast, endorsed a candidate in Texas. That's an easy one to answer. Immediately after being elected as regional vice chair for Texas and the Rocky Mountain states, Jared Polis decided to run for governor of Colorado so he resigned as vice chair. Pelosi and Lujan said they would replace him "soon." It's been just about two years. They abandon parts of the country, the same way they abandon candidates. Texas candidates have never experienced a DCCC vice chair working on their behalf. Ted Lieu and his staff try to lend a hand for exceptional candidates like Mike when he can. And, no, Pelosi's House Majority PAC has not spent a nickel trying to help Mike beat McCaul. That's just the way DC works.

For Texas, It's Just A Matter Of Time-- Meet Mike Siegel

Some of the best candidates running for Congress in Texas lost out to conservatives in the primary or the primary run-offs. But not all. Mike Siegel, running in a bizarrely gerrymandered district (TX-10) that goes from northern Austin and Pflugerville to Bastrop, La Grange, Columbus and Sealy right into Prairie View, Cypress, Tomball and the suburbs northwest of Houston. The district has a PVI of R+9 and Trump beat Hillary 52.3% to 43.2%, not as badly as Romney had beaten Obama. It's only a matter of time before TX-10 is purple. And Mike Siegel, this year's Democratic nominee thinks 2018 could be the year.

One of the best of the Texas candidates who didn't make it through primary season, Derrick Crowe, is enthusiastic about Siegel. He told us that "As the Assistant City Attorney of Austin, Mike fought hard against Texas Senate Bill 4, the racist and dehumanizing 'show me your papers' bill advanced by Gov. Abbott and Lt. Gov. Patrick last year. I was proud to stand with him last Friday as we rallied, marched and protested Ted Cruz and Mike McCaul over Trump's appalling family separation policy."

McCaul, who married into the Clear Channel family-- and voted for the estate tax to perpetrate the idea of aristocracy on America-- is either tiger richest or one of the 3 richest members of the House. He first bought the district in 2004 with $1,907,000 from the family fortune. As of March 31, he had raised $1,063,419. Mike Siegel had raised $105,998 by them, most of which he had to span on the primary and runoff. There were 6 Democrats in the primary and he came in first with 40.3%. The runner-up, Tawana Cadien, was a serial vanity candidate and Siegel beat her in the May 22 runoff 70-30%. He knows beating McCaul will be a lot more difficult. I asked him to introduce himself to DWT readers. If you like what you read, please consider contributing to his campaign by clicking on the ActBlue Making Texas Blue thermometer on the right.


Why I’m Running for TX-10
by- Mike Siegel

I’m a progressive Democrat raised in a union family with work experience as a public school teacher, community organizer, civil rights lawyer, and assistant city attorney. Michael McCaul is my “representative,” but he refuses to meet with any of my neighbors, and he is more concerned with raising his national profile and appeasing Donald Trump than with fighting for the needs of his constituents.

I live in north Austin, in a 10th District that was represented by Lyndon B. Johnson, and that was represented by Lloyd Doggett before the big Texas gerrymander of 2003. McCaul won the next election and six more. In the intervening years, he has become exceedingly wealthy, reporting personal wealth as high as $300 million. Because of his money and the favorable map, McCaul is often described as being “safe.”

But here in the 10th, we aren’t safe.

McCaul is Chairman of Homeland Security, and a proponent of the Border Wall, Family Separation policies, and similar cynical and hateful attacks on our immigrant community. He voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act-- and celebrated afterwards as millions of Americans faced a loss of care. He voted for the 2017 tax cuts that put tens of million dollars in his own pockets while setting up the right-wing push for austerity. He is an “A”-rated NRA candidate, a recipient of Koch Brothers support, and an opponent of unions, reproductive rights, social security, clean air and clean water.

If we are not safe under McCaul, why should he be?

In fact, McCaul is not. Even though the 10th was gerrymandered to be a 60/40 District in favor of the Republicans, Texas cities keep growing, and Austin and Houston continue to sprawl towards each other. In the 2016 presidential election, Trump beat Clinton by nine points in the 10th.

And since that time, McCaul has only inflicted harm on his constituents, by cutting our healthcare and transferring a trillion dollars from working families and essential government programs to the richest among us.

McCaul has also neglected the most basic aspects of representation. The 10th includes Katy, Cypress, and Tomball, three Harris County cities that were dramatically impacted by Hurricane Harvey. McCaul has done little to nothing to help those affected. And instead of obtaining federal support to fund fixes to decrepit flood control facilities, McCaul trumpeted his demand for $20 billion to fund a useless Border Wall.

McCaul’s base of support is brittle, and can be dislodged by a strong field campaign supplemented by targeted outreach across the nine counties of the 10th. We can motivate volunteers because we are fighting for the needs of our friends and neighbors.

We are fighting for healthcare for all and a reversal of the 2017 cuts; for fair immigration policies that keep families together; for a living wage and a retirement with dignity. We are fighting to keep corporate and NRA money out of politics.

To win the primary in a field of seven Democrats, I recruited 250 volunteers from diverse constituencies, including labor organizations, Indivisible activists, and the immigrant rights community.

To win the general, we will need to multiply efforts and reach out to additional communities who are suffering under the Trump-McCaul paradigm.

The 10th is not first on the “flippable” lists, but McCaul is not invincible, and his disdain for regular Texans is an Achilles heel.

We are running a hard campaign that will join forces with all of the activated groups in Texas, from Beto’s campaign for Senate to the grassroots organizations that have sprouted under Trump. We can take back the 10th and, in the process, strike a blow against this Republican reign of terror.

Mike Siegel Is Working To Begin The Green New Deal In Texas

On September 21, at Huston-Tillotson University, an historically-black college in Austin, progressive congressional candidate Mike Siegel convenes a conference on the Green New Deal with representatives from political organizations, youth and environmental movements and labor unions to address dealing with the climate crisis. Aside from Siegel, speakers include Green New Deal researcher and AOC advisor Andrés Bernal, climate reporter Kate Aronoff, environmental professors Raj Patel and Amanda Masino, Rep Gina Hinojosa (D-Austin) Austin City councilman Greg Casar, and Ginny McDavid, Harris County Labor Assembly. Sponsors include Extinction Rebellion, Our Revolution Texas, the local DSA chapter, and pro-GND unions.

You might scratch your head and ask how a candidate running in a district that includes Houston area "oil patch" towns like Katy and Tomball could be running so prominently on the Green New Deal-- but you wouldn't have to ask if you already know Mike Siegel, the intrepid progressive Democrat who, without an ounce of encouragement, let alone a nickel in support, from the DCCC managed to hold entrenched conservative Republican Michael McCaul down to a 51.1% in a district where Obama lost by wide margins both times he ran and where Trump beat Hillary 52-43%. Mike's 144,000 votes was the third biggest total of any of Texas' 36 House candidates, significantly outpolling incumbents like Joaquin Castro, Filemon Vela, Marc Veasey and Henry Cuellar and victorious freshman Lizzie Fletcher, Sylvia Garcia and Veronica Escobar.

Mike's new cycle is off to a strong start with early endorsements from local Democratic officials and activists, Ted Lieu, the IBEW, the National Union of Healthcare Workers, Progressive Democrats of America and Blue America.

As you probably know, Blue America is supporting progressive candidates across the country, whether they're running in solid blue districts, solid red districts, or anywhere in between. And we often meet progressives in places like Texas who say they can’t always message their policies in the same way as AOC or Ro Khanna, because the conversation is starting in a much different place. But in the TX-10, Mike Siegel, a strong, openly-progressive candidate, doesn't look for any excuses and is unafraid to tell it like it is-- on guns, voter suppression and impeachment, and on Medicare-for-All and the Green New Deal. Mike is out there fighting the good fight-- far more progressively than the DCCC "suggests" and has a great chance to win.

Siegel has made a big deal about a coal plant in rural Fayette County in his district– the Fayetteville Power Project-- and how it must be shut down, but also how the plan must provide a just transition for the workers and include clean-up to remedy environmental injustice. He's hoping the town hall he's organizing for September will help catalyze that movement.

"We have strong environmental community in Austin," Siegel explained. "And we have a progressive labor community that recently got the Texas AFL-CIO to pass a strong resolution in support of the environmental movement. This town hall will help unite these forces, and work towards answering the question: Why can’t Austin, and the 10th congressional district, create a national model project, to show what the Green New Deal looks like?"

I asked Mike to pen a guest post about how he's working to bring this about while campaigning for Congress and with-- once again-- no help from the DCCC, which has, in fact, been trying to recruit a more conservative candidate against him despite how he took McCaul’s advantage down from 19% to 4%. Blue America has been supporting him since the beginning, and we hope you will join us and give Mike a boost. We need his voice in Congress, fighting for a more progressive Texas. So read his guest post and if you think you'd like to help him replace Michael McCaul in Congress, consider clicking on the Taking Back Texas thermometer on the right and contributing what you can to his campaign.



Austin Can Create a National Model for the Green New Deal
-by Mike Siegel

Austin is often called “the blueberry in the tomato soup” of Texas, and many of us here are proud to display a progressive identity in a red state. But for all of the conscious, well-meaning people we have here, most don’t realize that our electricity is generated by a killer coal plant just 90 miles to the east.

The Fayette Power Project in Fayetteville, Texas, is a 40-year old coal plant that is killing people, plants and animals, poisoning the ground water, fouling the air and otherwise creating a toxic stew impacting every life form for miles around. But because of a complex mixture of Republican political might, urban-rural relations, and missing political will, the plant continues to operate with impunity, despite its disastrous repercussions.

As a progressive Democrat running for Congress in the Texas 10th, which includes parts of nine counties including north Austin, Fayetteville, and even the “oil patch” of the west Houston suburbs, I am making the closing the coal plant a major part of the campaign. To do that, we are organizing in multiple counties, pushing policy changes at the local government, and developing a legislative record that will support a broad movement for plant closure.

It may be baffling to you that Austin would be complicit in dirty energy. As a city, we own our own electric utility (Austin Energy), and have made substantial investments in renewable energy generation. The City Council recently approved a resolution in support of the Green New Deal, and last election cycle we replaced the last remaining Republican on the council dais. Austin is a city pushing the limits of progressive local governance: challenging anti-immigrant policies at the state level, pushing to reduce the incarceration of low-income and marginalized communities, protecting our local aquifers and promoting sustainable living. But at the same time, we have not yet done the work to undo a deep legacy of environmental destruction that started with the creation of the coal plant in the late 1970s.

Of course, the context is challenging. Most of our national environmental laws, including the Clean Water Act and the Clean Air Act, delegate to the states the job of issuing industrial permits, including those that relate to coal plant operations. So, even though the plant has caused dozens of cancer cases, corridors of early-onset Alzheimer’s, tragic asthma rates and likely lead poisoning of local children; even though plantations of pecans have withered and died, multiple creeks are carrying carcinogens to a major river, coal ash deposits overflow with every storm, and livestock and wildlife are dying at an alarming rate-- despite all of this, Texas state agencies continue to bless the continued operation of the coal plant, toxic warts and all. And under the CAA and CWA, once a state permit is issued, governmental immunity to any lawsuit must follow.

Over the years, organizing drives and lawsuits have failed, because the state agency that co-operates the plant with Austin Energy has both legal immunity and immense political power. Austin Energy owns one-third of the coal plant, but the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) owns two-thirds. The LCRA is run by state (Republican) appointees, along with appointees from affected rural (Republican) counties. And the operating agreement for the coal plant basically says that, even if Austin wants to close down its portion of the plant, LCRA can take it over and keep polluting our air and water.

Without direct political control or legal avenues for redress, our choices are basically: give up, or get in the streets. We are choosing the latter.

Next month, in concert with Austin environmental groups, Fayette landowners, and a coalition of concerned individuals, we will push the Austin City Council to fund a comprehensive study of the human and environmental impacts of the coal plant. Austin may not be able to unilaterally close the plant, but it can use its resources (and, in fact, the proceeds from this destructive facility) to create a political wedge in support of the movement.

And then, in September, my campaign has organized a town hall on the Green New Deal, featuring a panel of local and national experts to push this conversation further. We hope to engage hundreds of local residents in the work to close the coal plant and build the alternative.

The Green New Deal has three core elements-- addressing climate change, providing a just transition for workers, and remedying the legacy of environmental injustice-- and we have the opportunity to accomplish all three right here, deep in the heart of Texas. My campaign is uniquely positioned, given our network of 1000+ volunteers, support from key industrial unions including the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, alliances with environmental groups such as Sierra Club and Clean Water Action, and our commitment to running a progressive campaign that not only seeks to elect a candidate, but also accomplishes good things along the way.

Stay tuned for the struggle to come. Austin has a chance to take a leading role in the national conversation, showing that a Green New Deal is not just possible, but is essential to our future health and success.

Join us! Together, we can win.

Mike Siegel Heads To A TX-10 Runoff

As of the last FEC filing deadline in the TX-10 3-way primary-- February 12-- about $2 million had been spent by the Democrats' campaigns.

• Shannon Hutcheson- $915,411, of which $361,550 was self-funded
• Pritesh Gandhi- $772,486
• Mike Siegel- $348,908

The only outside sewer money that seeped into the race was $364,440-- much of it used to smear Hutcheson on behalf of Gandhi-- from the 314 Action PAC, a sham outfit pretending to care about Science while really devoted almost exclusively to lining the pockets of their principles. But as you can see, votes went to candidates inversely from money spent:

Mike Siegel's haul at the ballotbox Tuesday was significantly ahead of the 314 runner up-- but not enough to avoid a May 26th runoff. This isn't good. Siegel should be spending the next 3 months hammering Trump ally Michael McCaul, not being drawn into a battle with 314 and its anti-Medicare-for-All, anti-Green New Deal candidate. Please consider contributing what you can to Mike's campaign, which you can do by clicking on the Turning Texas Blue thermometer on the right.

"This campaign, Mike told me today, "continues to show how Democrats win in Texas: with people power! In 2018, we shocked countless observers when we held ultra-wealthy GOP incumbent Michael McCaul to 51% of the vote and turned the Texas 10th into a battleground district. And on Election Day we did the same: facing two well-funded opponents and an outside 'super PAC' who, together, spent over $2.5 million, we claimed a resounding victory. This is campaign is the only one that can beat the wealth and gerrymandered advantage of Rep. McCaul. We will keep working the district, knocking doors, and building an unstoppable coalition to demand real political change here in TX-10."

On Wednesday, Intercept politics editor Ryan Grim noted that "In 2018, the 10th Congressional District-- which stretches from the Austin suburbs to the Houston suburbs-- was written off by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, having gone to incumbent Michael McCaul in 2016 by 19 points. But Siegel, with a focus on organizing a major field operation, closed it to within 5 points. That drew the attention of deep-pocketed donors, who fielded corporate management lawyer Shannon Hutcheson to challenge Siegel for the nomination. Pritesh Gandhi, a doctor who is running to the left of Hutcheson but to the right of Siegel, also jumped into the race, setting up what looked like it could be a rerun of a knockdown, drag-out primary in California that followed a similar trajectory... The two other candidates spent the final weeks of the race attacking each other. A hybrid Super PAC backing Gandhi spent big attacking Hutcheson. Hutcheson, meanwhile, was the clear Washington favorite. She has been dogged in the primary by her corporate law work, particularly her defense of a prison guard accused of assaulting migrants, among other controversial cases. She voted in the 2010 Republican primary, the year of the tea party backlash to President Barack Obama, and has the strong support of her husband’s law firm, which is connected to the Texas GOP machinery."

Voters Want Revenge-- This Is What An Anti-Red Wave Looks Like

Very few voters give a damn about the shitload of crap candidates the DCCC has recruited from coast to coast. The only thing worse than the garbage candidates the DCCC has manufactured-- from ex-CIA spy Abigail Spanberger, who uses Trump talking points in her vomit-inducing anti-immigrant ad, to "ex"-Republican multimillionaires on the West Coast-- are their dreadful Republican opponents. But that difference makes all the difference in the world right now. Voters are angry-- angry at Trump and angry at the congressional Republicans who have enabled him and who have advanced a toxic agenda that is hurting people and threatening their families. See that picture up top? That's what this election is all about. That's why the Republicans are going to lose dozens of seats, not just to GREAT candidates like these, but to worthless, anti-progressive candidates the DCCC took great pains to get into place. No one is excited to vote for these candidates aside from they being the weapons to use against Trump and his rubber-stamps. It's not a blue wave; it's an anti-red wave.

As Ally Mutnick reported yesterday for the National Journal, more than 90 Republican incumbents were outraised by their Democratic opponents. Democratic candidates, she wrote, "aren’t just beating Republicans at the fundraising game-- they’re annihilating them." Luckily for the GOP, they have corrupt, self-serving billionaires like Sheldon Adelson, the Kochs, etc, to make up the gap, at least in part. But it's not enough... at least so far.

Ninety-two Republican incumbents were outraised by a challenger in the third quarter of 2018, a sharp increase from the 56 outraised in the second quarter. And that topline doesn’t even fully capture the scope of Democrats’ cash advantage. More than 50 of those members [I think she meant "candidates," not "members"] were outraised at least 2-to-1 and 31 were outraised 3-to-1 or more.

It’s been clear for weeks that Democrats would notch a record-breaking fundraising period, buoyed by small-dollar online donations from a grassroots base eager to defy President Trump. But Republicans revealed a staggering disparity as they filed their third-quarter reports at the Monday deadline... And these statistics have no recent precedent.

...This cycle, Democrats’ advantage is evident in nearly every top House battleground. In the 69 districts, including open-seats, deemed most competitive by the Cook Political Report, just two Republicans posted a higher third-quarter fundraising than their Democratic opponent: Reps. Mia Love of Utah and George Holding of North Carolina.

...In a Los Angeles-area district, Katie Hill raised $3.8 million, eight times more than Republican Rep. Steve Knight. And in Orange County, Harley Rouda raised $3.1 million, more than seven times as much as Republican Rep. Dana Rohrabacher. In suburban Chicago, Lauren Underwood hauled nearly five times more than Republican Rep. Randy Hultgren. And in northern New Jersey, Tom Malinowski quadrupled the fundraising of Republican Rep. Leonard Lance.

But, as history has shown us, in a wave election, challengers can beat incumbents without even outraising them at all. That's what 2006 and 2010 showed us, in the later when Democrats clobbered Republicans who had 2 and 3 times cash then they did and in 2010 when GOP candidates came along with virtually no money and took out cash-rich Democrats. This year, as long as a Democratic candidate has enough money to get out a message they can beat a much better financed Republican.



There are districts all around the country where the DCCC saw "no chance" and ignored the primaries there-- and are still ignoring them. In many cases-- like in CA-50 (Ammar Campa-Najjar) and TX-10 (Mike Siegel)-- progressives were able to win because of no DCCC interference and now, with a wave, they have a shot in prohibitively red districts. Last week Mike Siegel, the progressive running against entrenched Republican Michael McCaul in a super-gerrymandered red district, was on Maddow's show twice, saw a huge uptick in contributions and, shockingly was endorsed yesterday by the Houston Chronicle.

The DCCC wrote their districts off, so now progressives Dayna Steele and Mike Siegel may ride the wave to wins  in red Texas districts

It’s a challenge for any candidate to run in Texas’ 10th Congressional District, which stretches from Houston’s suburbs all the way to Austin. It’s even harder when one of your staffers gets locked up for trying to ensure that young people in the district can vote.

Jacob Aronowitz, a field director for Democratic candidate Mike Siegel’s campaign, was arrested at the Waller County Courthouse last week. He was there to deliver a letter disputing a decision that would have prevented students at the historically black Prairie View A&M University from voting on campus in the 2018 election. The Waller County Sheriff’s Office said Aronowitz was arrested for failure to identify, a Class C misdemeanor. He was released after two hours.

This is the same county where Sandra Bland died in jail after being pulled over for failure to signal a lane change.

Aronowitz’s brief arrest received national attention, and a day later Texas’ secretary of state announced that students will be allowed to vote on campus without having to fill out change of address forms and observers will be on site.

Consider us impressed with a campaign that fought for and succeeded in protecting voting rights even before winning an election.

This is a tough call because we’re fans of incumbent U.S. Rep. Mike McCaul, but in this race Siegel has our endorsement.

An assistant city attorney in Austin, Siegel, 40, wants to strengthen the Affordable Care Act, though he told us ideally he’d prefer single-payer health care.

He thinks the federal government has failed to make the proper investments in flood control infrastructure. That includes a coastal storm surge protection at the Port of Houston, which is outside his district but, as he recognizes, is key to the national economy. He’s also pushing for a pragmatic immigration plan similar to the 2013 bipartisan Senate bill.

Siegel has a specific focus on helping the rural parts of this district. He pointed to preventing rural hospitals from closing and expanding high-speed Internet access outside cities. Overall he’s running on a New Deal-style policy and wants to see the return of national public works projects.

Even if he doesn’t win. Siegel’s robust campaign may help turn out voters in areas that Democrats often don’t reach, such as Austin, Bastrop, Burleson, Lee, Waller and Washington Counties, and that statewide candidates.

...We’ve routinely endorsed [McCaul] for office, but he didn’t meet with the editorial board this cycle.

Despite his impressive record, McCaul has spoken all too softly over the past two years when it came time to put his foreign policy toughness to the test... he’s failed to step up and call out the president with the same honest voice we’ve heard from Republicans like U.S. Sens. Ben Sasse (R-NE), and Jeff Flake (R-AZ).

The nation could use McCaul’s voice right about now. In a 60 Minutes interview aired over the weekend Trump yet again gave Russia a pass for interfering in the 2016 election.

McCaul is acting like supporting the White House is worth a massive foreign policy surrender, contrary to everything we’ve seen him advocate for over the years. He wouldn’t put up with what he’s tolerating from Trump if Barack Obama were still president.

Early voting as been beyond what anyone inside the Beltway could have possibly predicted. Normal Americans are matching to the polls to defeat the fascist threat. It would seem impossible, but in some states turnout is on track to be higher than it was in the 2016 presidential election, which would be a first in American history. But, of course, Trump is a first in American history too. For example, in the last midterm (2014), 2,080,071 Coloradans voted with advance ballots. So far this year Coloradans have requested 3,297,951 advance ballots. And... this is what disdain for Trump and his rubber-stamps in Congress-- and love for our country-- looked like in California for the last 3 months. Amazing!

"Texodous" Is A Real Thing Now-- McCaul Doesn't Want Anything To Do With It

"Texodous" isn't in any dictionaries yet; it's just being written about and discussed by talking heads... and it's a hashtag on Twitter. But for Texas Republicans it's frightening real. Texas is hemorrhaging congressional Republicans. Last year the Democrats stumbled into two victories over "entrenched" GOP incumbents. The DCCC added nothing to the equation but Beto's energetic, charismatic Senate campaign-- far more progressive than his actual voting record-- helped Democrats straight down the ballot. A weak stands-for-nothing garden variety Dem, Lizzie Fletcher, ousted John Culberson in Houston 127,959 (52.5%) to 115,642 (47.5%) and a similar stands-for-nothing candidate, Colin Allred, ousted powerful Republican leader Pete Sessions in the Dallas area 144,067 (52.3%) to 126,101 (45.8%).

The otherwise useless DCCC and its allies put over $8,000,000 into Fletcher's race ($6,249,182 of it in negative ads roasting Culberson) and about the same amount into Allred's campaign ($7,750,056 in blistering negative attacks against Sessions). In the Austin to Houston district held by Michael McCaul, the DCCC was in see no evil/hear no evil/say no evil mode and didn't put a nickel into Mike Siegel's race against McCaul. And yet, despite McCaul spending $1,754,122 to Siegel's $481,417, Siegel's progressive grassroots campaign managed to win more votes than Fletcher's stands-for-nothing corporate campaign and tie Allred's stands-for-nothing corporate campaign (and for a fraction of the cost):

• Mike Siegel- 144,034 votes ($3.32 per vote)
• Colin Allred- 144,067 votes ($39.91 per vote, not counting massive outside spending)
• Lizzie Fletcher- 127,959 votes ($47.96 per vote, not counting massive outside spending)

Meanwhile Siegel forced McCaul to spend $11.16 for every vote he got. McCaul wasn't used to having to even campaign for his reelection bids. In 2016 he won 57.3%, 62.2% in 2014 and 60.5% in 2012. Siegel held him down to 51.1%. Alex Rogers' piece for CNN.com yesterday, One Republican's quest to stave off joining the 'Texodus', noted that last year was the worst election for him in his 15 year political career. "McCaul could be forgiven for retiring," wrote Rogers. "In the past four weeks, four of his fellow Texas Republican colleagues have done so-- a political phenomenon nicknamed 'Texodous'-- including two members who represent suburban districts similar to McCaul's. The Democrats flipped the House in 2018, suddenly making life miserable for GOP members now in the minority, and targeted half of the members of Congress in Texas, including him. To win, McCaul has to, for the first time, actually try; His once-safe district stretching from Austin to Houston is changing faster than he expected, threatening to throw him out."

McCaul is far more conservative than the district-- and a die-hard Trump enabler. As chair of the House Homeland Security Committee in 2018, he authored the congressional version of Trump's children in cages policy. Trump is way underwater in TX-10 and Beto beat Ted Cruz in the district last time. Siegel's platform-- Medicare-for-All, the Green New Deal, raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour, free public colleges, etc. are all opposed by McCaul but popular in the district. McCaul tried blaming Ted Cruz's unpopularity for his bad performance and Cruz's office responded that "McCaul raised more than triple the amount of his Democratic opponent and still 'almost lost.'"

But when faced with fight or flight, McCaul chose the former. He changed his campaign staff, including hiring Corry Bliss, who led the top Republican-affiliated super PAC for House races in 2018, as a general consultant. Last quarter, McCaul claimed a personal fundraising record. His team boasted the earliest field program of any incumbent Republican in America, one it says has already knocked on 10,000 doors. In the past week, McCaul met with local chamber of commerce officials, AARP constituents and local journalists. He toured car dealerships. He led a consortium on how to address human trafficking. And he hit three barbecue joints in three days.

"I decided if I'm going to do this again, I'm going to work it hard, maybe harder than I ever have," McCaul told CNN.

...On Election Night, McCaul was shocked, confident in the polling that showed him winning with about 57% of the vote against Mike Siegel, an attorney for Austin and first-time congressional candidate, rather than the four-point nail biter it was. "Ignorance is bliss," joked McCaul.

...McCaul's actions suggest he knows his previous campaigns were a little listless. He hasn't had to campaign much in the past: He won his first race in 2004 in a newly gerrymandered district by defeating a Libertarian candidate by over 60 points. He won his next seven races by an average of 20. One former McCaul campaign staffer told CNN, "I never saw him knock on a door." Now his campaign sends out photos of him doing it.

In his interview with CNN, McCaul did not mention the name of a potential Democratic opponent; his campaign manager Evan Albertson said that he or she would either be a "Pelosi liberal or AOC extremist."

But at a local Chamber of Commerce event this week, the issues that may illuminate his campaign came into focus-- improving child cancer research, addressing the scourge of human trafficking and touting the benefits of the 2017 tax overhaul.

Siegel told us that "CNN is right to call out McCaul for failing to 'actually try' to meet the voters of the district. He’s been an absentee representative, cashing millions of dollars in corporate PAC contributions while ignoring rural hospital closures, crumbling infrastructure, and specific local needs. His attempt to show engagement (by hiring paid canvassers to drop literature and calling it a 'field campaign') is too little, too late."

McCaul isn't really that interested in Congress. He even admits he thinks he should be Secretary of State instead. Rogers wrote that "Democrats are targeting McCaul for good reason. There are about a thousand new Texans each day, about half of which are babies, about a quarter are domestic migrants, and about a quarter are international migrants... Between 2017 and 2018 four of the top 10 counties with the largest growth in the country were in the Lone Star state, areas that include Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio or its suburbs... In recent years, the populations of Latinos, African Americans and Asians in McCaul's district have boomed. Between 2012 and 2017, Latinos grew from 26% to 29% of the population as over 60,000 moved there or were born... The white population increased but more slowly than other races, and shrunk as a percentage of the district from 58% to 52%."

"Our campaign worked hard to turn this district into a national battleground," said Mike Siegel. "Now, we are ready to finish the job. We are fighting for progressive values and standing up for working people, and showing what it takes to win. Stay tuned for more innovative tactics here in the heart of Texas."

He's the progressive in the race and the more independent-minded on the three primary candidates. The other two, Pritesh Gandhi and Shannon Hutcheson, are just running for the sake of it and don't actually stand for much-- typical DCCC/EMILY's List types. Please consider contributing to Mike's campaign by clicking on the 2020 Take Back Texas thermometer on the right.

Democrats are confident that the mix of Trump at the top of the ticket, fundamental demographic changes and a message centering on health care and protecting the Affordable Care Act will flip the seat.

The Democrats also don't think McCaul is well-known even after winning eight terms in office and call his claims of a reinvigorated field campaign overblown. According to a copy of McCaul's schedule of the past two weeks obtained by CNN, the congressman had one door-knocking event but canceled it. When CNN toured the block, which included a home hoisting a Trump flag out front, a couple potential voters said they didn't recognize McCaul's name, but they would vote for him so long that he was Republican.

Democrats pledge to out-work McCaul since they can never out raise him; He's one of the wealthiest members of Congress. In the stifling August heat one recent evening in Austin, Hutcheson took her two daughters and brother-in-law to knock on dozens of doors. Hutcheson described her pitch as a mother motivated to run by the election of Trump and the desire to finally give women a seat at the table.

"This is a tough thing to do," said Hutcheson. "It is not for the faint of heart, but I'm doing it because I absolutely believe that we have to stand up. We have to stand up against hate. We have to stand up for the working families who aren't being listened to and aren't being represented-- families like the one I grew up in."

She's going to have a lot of catching up if she thinks she can compete with Siegel, although EMILY's List and the DCCC are steering money her way because of her less policy-oriented perspective and her lack of interest in anything remotely progressive.

Turning Texas Bluer-- For Real

Sane people don't think of the Green New Deal as "Fools Gold"

As you may recall, Mike Siegel fought a tireless grassroots battle in the gerrymandered 10th Texas congressional district, which goes from northern Austin through the city's northern suburbs, across Bastrop, Lee, Fayette, Colorado, Washington, Austin and Waller counties all the way into the exurbs (Tomball, Bridgeland and Cypress) northwest of Houston. The DCCC braintrust declared the district unwinnable and ignored the race entirely, even going so far as to urge local organizations to not contribute to Mike and help them in other districts instead. So, with no help from the DCCC at all, Mike held the incumbent Trump puppet-- architect of the family separation policy-- down to a 51.1% win. Two years earlier, Trump won the district by 11 points.

Mike decided to finished what he had begun, building of the grassroots energy of 2018 to defeat Michael McCaul in 2020. The DCCC decided he is too progressive for the district and has been surreptitiously supporting a Republican-voting elite EMILY's List creation named Shannon Hutcheson who is running a DCCC-approved GOP-lite campaign. That helped Mike win every single local endorsement in the race, most recently, the Harris County and Austin Tejano Democrats, the representation of the old guard in the Mexican-American community.

This people power has enabled Siegel's campaign to knock 34,000 doors to date and identify a huge number of likely supporters before the upcoming March 3 primary.

Recently, though, another wealthy non-grassroots candidate with virtually no chance to win, Pritesh Gandhi, has come out very negatively against Hutcheson, his SuperPAC allies at 314 Action spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on mailers like these two, hammering home a message by a candidate who doesn't have an inspiring positive message of his own:

As far as I can tell, the piece has had an impact in a district that hasn't seen negative campaigning like this since before the 2003 Texas gerrymander. Seems to have the combined effect of turning some voters away from Gandhi (for going negative), and turning some away from Hutcheson. The mailer was sent only to women Democratic voters. Gandhi is not only attacking Shannon but also attacking Siegel-- but for progressive policies. After originally claiming he supports progressive healthcare solutions, Gandhi (like his favorite presidential candidate, Mayo Pete) has now explicitly disavowed Medicare-for-All. He recently referred to both the Green New Deal and Medicare-for-All-- major planks in Mike Siegel's platform-- as "fools' gold" and "pipe dreams." Strangely, he considers FDR-- whose New Deal was referred to by conservative Democrats as "fools' gold and a "pipe dream"-- his favorite president.

Blue America has a page exclusively devoted to helping turn Texas blue. You can contribute to our progressive candidates by clicking on the thermometer above. Another one of the candidates on that page, as a matter of fact, has a spectacular new video I hope you'll watch. This shows who Jessica Cisneros is much better than I've ever seen before. Like Mike Siegel, she's what me need in Congress if we want to get serious about fundamental change in our country.

Green Day/Blue Texas-- Insomniac Platinum Award Plaque Contest For Mike Siegel

March 3 isn't just Super Tuesday for the presidential candidates, it is also the big day for many congressional candidates all over the country. One of the best candidates Blue America has endorsed, Mike Siegel-- who has the best chance to replace a toxic Trump enabler (Michael McCaul)-- needs some help with his field campaign. Blue America wants to help him raise some money for that and we're going to offer the double platinum Green Day Insomniac award you see pictured here. (Green Day released their 13th studio album, Father of All Motherfuckers, on Friday.)

This is an RIAA-certified award for 2 million albums sold and it was awarded to their label president Howie Klein, now the treasurer of the Blue America PAC. The simple version of the rules: donate any amount to Mike Siegel's campaign on this page between today and 9pm (PT) on Valentine's Day (February 14) or send a check, made out to Mike Siegel for Congress, to Blue America, P.O. Box 27201, Los Angeles, CA 90027. Any amount... what ever you want to contribute. We will randomly select one winner regardless of the amount of the contribution.

The much longer, FEC-demanded rules in legalese are here for any masochists.

Mike grew up in Oakland, California in the 1980s and 90s, and he told us that Green Day was part of the soundtrack for his crew in high school. "Their album art and videos," said Mike, "acknowledged life in the East Bay, from walking the streets of Berkeley to riding BART. And their energy gave expression to our rebellious spirit!" And now he's a Texas civil rights attorney and a married man with two children... and a great congressional candidate.

Mike told us he and his team "have built the coalition to carry us to victory, and now the last piece is the gather the resources we need to communicate with every voter between now and Election Day. This is a campaign that is running hard on labor issues and the Green New Deal, which has not only earned me the support of folks like the Sunrise Movement and 350 Action, but also the Texas AFL-CIO, even though many of the workers in the Texas 10th are a part of the fossil fuel industry. We are taking a strong stand on climate change and voting rights, on justice for Rodney Reed (a Texas death row prisoner who grew up in TX-10), on Medicare for All in a region with closing rural hospitals, on a living wage and a retirement with dignity."

Early voting in Texas starts on February 18, four days after the contest ends. The money we raise for him will help his campaign bring voters to the polls and help keep getting his message out to voters. Please consider kicking in by tapping on the Insomniac ActBlue thermometer on the right and help make sure TX-10 replaces a reactionary Republican with a progressive Democrat.

A Duty To The Country? To The American People? To History? To Your Own Conscience?

 

Like by Nancy Ohanian

Everyone has to make those decisions for him- or herself. If you've heard me on Nicole Sander's or David Feldman's shows recently, you've probably heard me talking about A French Village, and about how each of us may have to decide where we are on a spectrum that goes from enthusiastic collaboration with fascism to violent resistance to it, just as the characters in the TV series were forced to. History Professor Walter Moss noted that Americans, "never having lived under military occupation by a hostile foreign power... have little appreciation for how complex everyday life could become under such conditions. Although most people would like to think that they would resist the Nazi invaders and not cooperate with them in any way, the reality for occupied peoples-- under the Germans and other occupiers-- was usually much more varied. FV depicts this well. Some collaborated; some cooperated partly; only a small minority engaged in active resistance."

It becomes even more nuanced, of course, when it isn't a foreign occupation but a fascist coup we have to decide how to position ourselves for or against. It hasn't come to that yet... but for many ex-Trump staffers, there is a decision they have to make now... or not make. AP reporter Jill Colvin wrote yesterday that "With just weeks left before the Nov. 3 election, now is the moment of truth for current and former Trump administration officials debating whether they, too, should step forward and join the chorus of Republican voices trying to persuade on-the-fence voters to help deny Trump a second term." After all, according to former chief of staff at the Department of Homeland Security, Miles Taylor, Trump was routinely asking aides to break the law, using his former agency for explicitly political purposes, and wanting to maim and shoot migrants trying to cross the southern border. Taylor said that "Those who witnessed the president’s unfitness for office up close have a moral obligation to share their assessment with the electorate."

Other prominent “formers” have spoken out independently-- or are considering it.

Former national security adviser John Bolton wrote a scathing book in which he said Trump “saw conspiracies behind rocks, and remained stunningly uninformed” on how to run the government. Former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis broke a self-imposed vow of silence in June with an op-ed slamming Trump’s response to racial justice protests. He and former director of national intelligence Dan Coats also were quoted extensively in a new book by journalist Bob Woodward calling Trump dangerous and unfit for office.

But Mattis and Coats, like former White House chief of staff John Kelly and former national security adviser H.R. McMaster, have refrained from more explicit condemnations, often citing a “duty of silence” or a long tradition of military officials staying out of politics, according to people who’ve spoken with them.

Efforts to draw them out are ongoing. While former Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen appears disinclined to step forward, there are hopes that former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson might be persuaded to comment and that Coats might be urged to say more. And Kelly, a retired four-star general, is said to be on the fence and torn about the decision.

“I think that he loves his country and he wants to do what’s best for the country,” said Neumann, who served as Kelly’s deputy chief of staff at DHS and is hopeful he’ll speak out, even as others don’t think it will happen.

Officials like Kelly, with long careers and hefty pensions, would seem to have less to lose by doing so than more junior staffers like Olivia Troye, a former counterterrorism adviser to Vice President Mike Pence who last week joined the campaign against Trump and said she’d be voting for Biden.

In a video and interviews, Troye has accused Trump of mishandling the coronavirus and being more concerned about his reelection prospects than saving lives. The White House punched back with an aggressive attack campaign aimed at discrediting her through a barrage of statements, interviews and denunciations from the lectern in the White House briefing room.

“These are not profiles in courage, but these are profiles in cowardice,” White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said of Troye and Taylor, dismissing them as part of a “fringe club of, quote, ‘Never Trumpers’ who are desperate for relevancy.”

Taylor said it was clear the White House was “coming after” those who speak out as a warning to others who are considering doing likewise.

“The White House knows if they show this is a very costly thing to do they will scare people from going forward,” he said.

He added that while more people are still considering coming forward, the White House tactics have worked to some extent-- dissuading one senior official who had been on the cusp of speaking out.

Rick Wilson, a longtime Republican strategist who co-founded the anti-Trump Lincoln Project, stressed that time is running out.

“There will be a cottage industry when Trump is out of office of people who say, ‘Oh, I fought from the inside, I fought the good fight, I kept so many bad things from happening.’” he said. “It doesn’t matter. There’s only one moment in time where it matters. And that’s now.”





...Anthony Scaramucci, who turned against the president last year after a short stint as White House communications director, has also been in discussions with those on the fence and is using every channel he can find to spread his message, including a new anti-Trump documentary.

“We have to keep the pressure on, and so for me it’s a multimedia approach. It’s radio, it’s podcasts, it’s Twitter, it’s television and it’s movies,” he said. “As a citizen all I’ve tried to do is provide a surgeon general’s warning... This guy is a threat to the institutions of democracy, and I worked for him and I think it’s important to send a signal to other people,” he said, that it’s OK to speak out.

And a lot is going to fall on Biden's shoulders, shoulder's I'm afraid not up to the task. In his NY Times OpEd yesterday, How To Debate Someone Who Lies, psychiatrist Richard Friedman offered Biden some advice: "Don’t waste your time fact-checking the president. If you attempt to counter every falsehood or distortion that Mr. Trump serves up, you will cede control of the debate. And, by trying to correct him, you will paradoxically strengthen the misinformation rather than undermine it. (Research shows that trying to correct a falsehood with truth can backfire by reinforcing the original lie.) Instead, Mr. Biden should use more powerful weapons that will put Mr. Trump on the defensive-- and also tell the audience that the president is a dishonest narrator. The first weapon may be the most effective: humor and ridicule. A derisive joke can defuse tense and outrageous situations. In 2007, for example, protesters dressed as clowns confronted a 'white power' march in Charlotte, N.C., holding signs that read 'wife power' and throwing white flour in the air. It made the white nationalists look ridiculous and avoided a violent confrontation, which would have served the interests of the racists."

I doubt Biden would dare, but he should only refer to Trump as "Donald," which drives him up the wall and would cause a complete crackup tomorrow night.

Trump Biden Debate by Nancy Ohanian

Last night I was talking with Mike Siegel, the progressive working to replace Trump ally Michael McCaul in a gerrymandered central Texas district. Defeating Trumpist enablers like McCaul is what's going to make all the difference in 2021. Mike told me his team is "this close to defeating one of the wealthiest and most reactionary members of Congress because we are running a people-powered, populist campaign that speaks to the needs of the people in this moment of overlapping crises. We are fighting for universal health care during a pandemic, a Green New Deal in response to massive unemployment and climate disasters, a renewed Voting Rights Act to battle massive voter suppression, and other programs to guarantee equality, dignity and justice for all. This poll will help us raise additional resources and win new sources of support, all in support of a transformational movement to flip a seat and usher in a new era of representation that is close to the ground and responsive to the people."

YES!!! We're in! Please contribute to Mike's campaign here. But how does Mike know he's close to beating McCaul? Once you leave Austin, it's a pretty red district. He shared a polling memo with me and said it was ok to run it on DWT. These are the key findings-- and from a relatively conservative sample of voters:

The TX-10 rematch between Mike Siegel and Michael McCaul is very close as we head into the final 5 weeks of the 2020 election. There has been notable movement in the race since our previous poll conducted at the beginning of August. Siegel has gained 4 points during these past 7 weeks, and now trails McCaul 45 to 43 percent (with Libertarian Roy Eriksen receiving 6 percent). The 2-point gap also reflects a narrowing of the 2018 result when McCaul won by 4 points, and Siegel is well-positioned to continue making gains as voters engage and the statewide environment further improves for Joe Biden.

The movement in the Congressional race is consistent with movement taking place at the top of the ticket in this rapidly changing district. In fact, TX-10 is a reflection of what is happening around the country as voters of color and college educated voters are forming a powerful Democratic coalition that is transforming districts that have been held for years by Republicans and are now becoming Democratic. While Obama lost the district by 21 points to Romney in 2012, Clinton cut that margin to 9 points against Trump in 2016, and O’Rourke tied against Cruz in 2018. In our latest poll, Biden is tied with Trump and has gained 4 points since August.

The following findings are based on a survey of 400 registered voters who are likely to cast ballots in the November election. The survey was conducted September 21-September 24, 2020 with live dialers to both landlines and cell phones, and is subject to a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence interval.

Key Findings:

• The political environment has improved for Democrats over the past 7 weeks, and the Presidential and House races are shifting toward Biden and Siegel. Biden gained 4 points in his race with Trump, and Siegel gained 4 points in his race with McCaul. Biden is now tied with Trump in the district, and Siegel is down by 2 points against McCaul (45 to 43 percent).
• Siegel’s coalition reflects the power of the political and demographic changes in the district. TX-10 has a very diverse electorate that is comprised of white (69 percent), Hispanic (13 percent), African American (11 percent), and AAPI voters (3 percent). Siegel is winning by large margins among voters of color, as well as with white college educated voters.

• College educated: Siegel 48 / McCaul 42
• College educated women: Siegel 57 / McCaul 35
• Voters of color: Siegel 60 / McCaul 26
• Independents: Siegel 46 / McCaul 36

• Siegel demonstrates his durability by maintaining positive favorability amid McCaul launching television and digital ads attacking him. Siegel has a +6 favorability rating (32 percent favorable / 26 percent unfavorable), which is particularly notable given the advertising on broadcast television that McCaul has run against him prior to Siegel launching his own television campaign. Siegel entered this race with high name ID for a challenger, which has helped him sustain his strength against McCaul’s efforts.
• The bottom line: this is a very close race, and real movement is taking place in a state undergoing profound political change. The survey shows that healthcare remains a very powerful issue, just as it had been in 2018 when two Texas districts flipped to Democrats and several others – such the Siegel-McCaul race – were decided by only a few points. McCaul is particularly vulnerable on his votes to repeal the Affordable Care Act, and voters express strong opposition to his healthcare positions that continue in the middle of this pandemic. Once again, Siegel is in a neck-and-neck race with McCaul-- and this time with a stronger wind at his back-- and TX-10 is a serious pick-up opportunity for Democrats.

As Rich Benjamin reminded Intercept readers yesterday "In order to win this presidential contest, liberals need to accept that Trump supporters do not care if he were to scrap millions of mail-in votes or to welcome, and even solicit, Russian interference for his cause. Not only do some Trump supporters understand that he is an autocrat who will cheat the rules to stay in power, that’s precisely what they like about him. The left should understand that many Trump supporters inherently believe that they would fare better under an autocratic system of white supremacy than under a multiracial democracy... Questioning all that fervent, widespread Trump support would force them to question how their neighbor, their cousin, their uncle, their co-worker, their favorite vendor is complicit to a regime that prioritizes their well-being and social privilege as white people, second only to Trump’s greed. To acknowledge your aunt’s or your own complicity in Trump’s nationalist autocracy might make you feel accountable for what this country is. And that accountability to the problem damns you to an accountability to the solution... Wealth redistribution to the top, privatization, extreme incoming inequality, and ruling kleptocracy: Such are the hallmarks of this regime’s totalitarian capitalism, one that exploits catastrophe to further undercut a fair economy, a robust middle class, and truly representative democracy."