11 Points Is Very Big

 

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll of registered voters shows Trump losing in a 53% to 42% election-- an 11 point deficit. That's a lot. In the 1968 presidential election, the first time I was allowed to vote, Nixon beat Hubert Humphrey by seven-tenths of a point, about half a million votes. Carter beat Ford by 2 points. Four years later, Reagan's landslide win over Carter was 9.7 points. Clinton beat George HW Bush by 5.6 points and then beat ole Bob Dole by 8.5 points. Gore actually beat George W Bush 50,999,897 (48.4%) to 50,456,002 (47.9%) but the Republican Supreme Court blatantly stole the election for Bush. Four years later, Bush beat Kerry by 2.4 points. In 2008 Obama beat McCain by 7.2 points and then beat Romney by 3.9 points in 2012. Hillary beat Trump 65,853,514 (48.2%) to 62,984,828 (46.1%) but was denied the presidency because of the purposely anti-democratic electoral college (which should have been abolished long ago-- and would have been if it ever worked against a Republican or if the Democratic Party ever grew a pair).





Wall Street Journal reporter Eliza Collins wrote that "The poll holds warning signs for Republicans down-ballot, as well. Democrats came out ahead of Republicans by 8 points when voters were asked which party they planned to support for Congress... Biden continues to gain with groups that backed Mr. Trump in 2016, such as seniors and white women. At the same time, Mr. Trump’s lead has weakened among some core parts of his base, including white men without college degrees. A majority of voters are unhappy with the president’s response to the coronavirus pandemic. Some 41% approve of his handling of Covid-19 in the latest poll, compared with 57% who disapprove."

Even in states where a statewide loss is not likely for Trump, his unpopularity in suburban districts is going to kill his GOP enablers from coast to coast. It's what the silly Beltway prognosticators-- including at the DCCC-- don't understand about a wave. Even the very worst and least-deserving-of-reelection Democrats, like Blue Dogs Anthony Brindisi (NY), Kendra Horn (OK), Joe Cunningham (SC), Ben McAdams (UT) and Abigail Spanberger (VA), are all probably going to be reelected because of widespread antipathy towards Trump and his lackeys.

Progressive challengers in deep red districts who the DCCC wrote off early in the cycle, are now on the verge of defeating powerful entrenched Republican incumbents-- and some have even been embraced, albeit reluctantly, by the DCCC! Look at these 7 candidates. All are running in prohibitively red districts gerrymandered to elect Republicans; all were entirely ignored by the Democratic establishment; all are in districts where Trump's support is collapsing; and all are pulling even or surpassing their Republican opponents. These are the candidates whose campaigns we should be pouring resources into right now:

• Adam Christiansen (FL-03) R+9
• Audrey Denney (CA-01) R+11
• Nate McMurray (NY-27) R+11
• Julie Oliver (TX-25) R+11
• Liam O'Mara (CA-42) R+9
• J.D. Scholten (IA-04) R+11
• Mike Siegel (TX-10) R+9

7 races with an average PVI of about R+10... all once considered out of reach and absolutely impossible, but all now very much within reach and very much possible and worth investing in. For example, Julie Oliver's "impossible race" has now been endorsed by the DCCC, which is starting to get excited about seeing her replace one of the most vile of the Trump enablers in the House. "Everyone knows big money and the ultra-wealthy have too much power in Washington," Julie told me this morning, "and I’m a political outsider who has refused all PAC money and isn’t afraid to stand up to corrupt special interests and leaders in both parties. We need to end the culture of corruption in Washington, and Roger Williams has shown a disturbing pattern of unethical behavior-- whether it’s being investigated for amending a bill to support car dealerships by letting them rent out dangerous vehicles under active safety recall, cutting to the front of the line to take millions in bailouts for his car dealership while Texas small business owners lost everything and voting to keep that hidden from the public, or abusing his position to make backroom deals on behalf big money donors."

Progressive Democrat J.D. Scholten is running a campaign in Iowa based on the same kinds of ideas. Last night he told me that "All farmers can agree that we need to enforce our antitrust laws in agriculture because right now corporations are controlling the inputs, outputs, and choices for farmers. In my first year in Congress, my goal is to introduce legislation to modernize the Packers and Stockyards Act, level the playing field for farmers, and hold corporations accountable. Meanwhile, my opponent takes corporate PAC donations from Tyson, Smithfield, and Syngenta-- the very corporations that are helping to push farmers off the farm and into bankruptcy. My strong, unwavering support for enforcing antitrust laws has earned me support from farmers across the political spectrum."

This morning California progressive Audrey Denney told me that she has "consistently been running on: 1) Forest health and fire prevention, 2) Truly universal healthcare and an emphasis on rural health, 3) COVID recovery and economic growth, 4) Rural broadband. All with the underlying theme of the essential need to get money out of politics and fire corrupt self-serving politicians. Our message is getting through to voters and we are going to win... Since we sent Rep. LaMalfa back to DC for his 4th term:

• He voted against HR 968 that would have protected people with pre-existing conditions.
• He voted against HR 3 that would have lowered prescription drug prices.
• He voted against HR 1 which among many other things, would have strengthened ethics rules for members of Congress.
• He voted against S47 wildly bipartisan public lands funding bill-- when half of his district is public lands.
• He voted against the HEROES Act twice-- even though besides desperately needed COVID relief it would have provided: $500 million for Safer Grants (Fire emergency response), $500 million for Fire Fighter Assistance grants, assistance to livestock producers (we are now losing 4th generation cattle ranches), money for rural hospitals, and rural broadband.

Trump And His GOP Enablers Have Killed 222,000 Americans With COVID-- And They're Not Even Close To Being Done Yet

 

"Don't Let It Dominate Your Life" by Nancy Ohanian

Confirmed reports of new COVID cases on Thursday confirmed that the whole world is in the midst of a raging-- not petering out-- pandemic. There were over 390,000 confirmed new cases, spread out worldwide in countries that resist mask wearing. There were just 11 new cases in China, 570 in Japan, 110 in South Korea, 13 in Thailand, 27 in Cuba, 3 in Singapore, 2 in Vietnam, 12 in Hong Kong and just 1 in Taiwan. People in these countries don't whine that masks taking away their freedom. They know a lot better than some ugly bearded freak with a gun collection in Ohio what an infringement of their freedom looks like-- and they know it isn't wearing masks to protect society from a deadly viral plague.

In the parts of the world unwilling or incapable of protecting themselves from the coronavirus, new case counts were horrific on Wednesday (along with number of cases per million residents:

• U.S. +64,312 (24,775 cases per million residents)
• India +60,365 (5,322 cases per million residents)
• France +30,621 (12,397 cases per million residents)
• Brazil +29,498 (24,278 cases per million residents)
• U.K. +18,980 (9,908 cases per million residents)
• Argentina +17,096 (20,944 cases per million residents)
• Russia +13,754 (9,278 cases per million residents)
• Spain +13,318 (20,807 cases per million residents)
• Czechia +9,720 (13,907 cases per million residents)
• Italy +8,804 (6,314 cases per million residents)
• Belgium +8,271 (15,642 cases per million residents)
• Poland +8,099 (3,962 cases per million residents)
• Netherlands +7,791 (11,895 cases per million residents)
• Germany +7,074 (4,159 cases per million residents)
• Colombia +6,823 (18,358 cases per million residents)
• Ukraine +5,062 (6,442 cases per million residents)
• Iran +4,616 (6,143 cases per million residents)
• Indonesia +4,411 (1,273 cases per million residents)
• Mexico +4,056 (6,413 cases per million residents)
• Romania +4,013 (8,776 cases per million residents)
• Nepal +3,749 (4,157 cases per million residents)
• Iraq +3,587 (10,297 cases per million residents)
• Morocco +3,317 (4,419 cases per million residents)
• Peru +2,977 (25,887 cases per million residents)
• Switzerland +2,613 (8,223 cases per million residents)
• Jordan +2,423 (2,986 cases per million residents)
• Canada +2,345 (5,067 cases per million residents)
• Philippines +2,261 (3,170 cases per million residents)
• Portugal +2,101 (9,157 cases per million residents)
• South Africa +1,770 (11,730 cases per million residents)
• Israel +1,701 (32,639 cases per million residents)

European cities are moving back into lockdowns. MarketWatch reported that "London has joined a raft of other European cities plunged into tighter COVID-19 restrictions, while in Germany there are further controls on gatherings, and nighttime curfews are being implemented in nine French cities. Millions of households in London will be banned from mixing indoors with other households on Saturday, as European leaders battle to prevent the spread of a second wave of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus."

Mayor of London Sadiq Khan, who has been pushing hard for tighter restrictions, warned on Thursday that the virus was spreading rapidly “in every corner of our city”-- a large number of boroughs now has an average of 100 cases per 100,000 people.

The U.K. has one of the highest death tolls from the disease in Europe, at 43,155, because of the high density of people in its cities and its high level of overweight citizens.

The U.K. has implemented restrictions in three tiers, with the third tier the most severe. London, which has a population of nine million and is Europe’s wealthiest city, has been moved up to Tier 2, which bans the mixing of households. Schools, shops, and pubs remain open.

Khan warned the capital has “a difficult winter ahead … But, just as we’ve always done throughout our city’s great history, I know we’ll get through this dark time by pulling together.”

In France, starting tonight, Paris, Marseille, Lyon, Lille, Toulouse, Aix-en-Provence, Grenoble, Montpellier, Saint Etienne and Rouen have curfews from 9pm to 6am. Violators will be fined $160 for a first offense, $1,760 for a second offense.

As for tourists or, more likely, would-be tourists... "Despite the holiday season now being in full swing, some [EU countries] are now shutting down again." Tourists are allowed in from Australia, Canada, Georgia, Japan, New Zealand, Rwanda, South Korea, Thailand, Tunisia, Uruguay and China.

Reporter Jennifer Calfas tried explaining to Wall Street Journal readers why COVID is on the rise again in the U.S. Short answer: fatigue, colder weather, eased restrictions. We just experienced a 7th consecutive day of reported new cases over 50,000 daily. She spoke with epidemiologists and public-health researchers about what's causing the spike.

The virus has spread to more rural counties and other communities, exposing vulnerable populations that hadn’t yet experienced it significantly and who are now reacting instead of taking steps to prevent the virus, public-health researchers said.

Some people have grown tired of restrictions on their movements and might be taking more risks than they did in the spring, they said. Mixed and inconsistent messaging over preventive measures has sowed confusion and complacency. Some local governments have eased restrictions on businesses and requirements to wear masks. Meanwhile, college students returned to campuses, leading to some spreading of the virus, and the onset of cooler weather has led many Americans indoors, where the virus is more transmittable, the public-health researchers said.

...Daily case-count tallies are likely to increase or remain at high levels without concerted use of such strategies as enhanced testing, widespread mask-wearing and clear, consistent messaging, epidemiologists and public-health researchers said.

“It doesn’t have to be this way,” said Jewel Mullen, the associate dean for health equity at the Dell Medical School at the University of Texas at Austin. “The longer it takes for us to adopt behaviors to lower collective risk, the longer it’s going to take for us to recover socially, economically from a pandemic standpoint.”





New case counts are high nationally, but it is far from uniform across the country; often one area surges when another improves. While cases have ebbed in Sunbelt states like Arizona, they have gone up throughout parts of the rest of the country, especially the upper Midwest. And community transmission has persisted in states like Florida and Texas where cases have dropped recently.

“It’s almost like we never ended the first wave,” said Marissa Levine, a professor at the University of South Florida College of Public Health. “We may be going into the third hump of the first wave.”

On a national scale, the U.S. never saw the same substantial drops in cases experienced in European countries before infections rose there again.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a recent report that divisiveness and mixed messages over mask-wearing might have contributed to a rise in coronavirus cases among younger people in a Wisconsin county. Another CDC report found increases in positivity rates among older age groups followed surges in younger populations. This week, a judge upheld Gov. Tony Evers’s mask mandate and public-health emergency after three residents challenged the actions.

Without a vaccine or a therapeutic breakthrough, prevention tools are the best approach for controlling the spread. Precautions like wearing masks and maintaining distance help lower risk of transmission but don’t entirely eliminate it, especially without full compliance, according to health officials.

“We have been saying it for months now that if everybody doesn’t do it, we’re not going to have this huge, overwhelming success,” said Jasmine Marcelin, an assistant professor at the University of Nebraska Medical Center and infectious-diseases physician. “It’ll be in fits and starts.” Communities might continue to slide back and forth between phases of the pandemic, Dr. Marcelin warned.

Compliance fatigue has been seen as a contributing factor to the second wave of infections that has spread across Europe in recent weeks. Across the Continent, restrictions are snapping back into place as cases rise and hospitals once again fill up.

In the U.S., swelling cases have already spurred record-high hospitalizations in states including Wisconsin, the Dakotas, Montana and Utah. The U.S. recorded the highest number of patients hospitalized with Covid-19 since the end of August on Wednesday, according to data from the Covid Tracking Project.

More deaths and hospitalizations are likely to follow as cases edge higher and potentially shift from younger people to more vulnerable populations, a situation that is already playing out in Europe. The latest projections from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation indicate that nearly 180,000 additional deaths could occur in the U.S. by Feb. 1.

Health-care professionals are able to provide better care when not overwhelmed with patients or short on critical supplies, said Ryan Demmer, an epidemiologist and associate professor at the University of Minnesota.

“If we get back to 70,000 a day and we get beyond that, then the system probably is not really prepared to absorb those additional hospitalizations,” he said. “And then when you can’t provide adequate care, the death rates get worse.”

Epidemiologists and public-health leaders have continued to urge Americans to stay vigilant to avoid this outcome.

“The most frustrating thing for me as an epidemiologist is to know that we can make a change and we can make a difference in the trends. We know what to do,” said Loren Lipworth, an epidemiologist at Vanderbilt University Medical Center. “The virus is not going away.”

We're NOT All Gonna Die-- But Far More Of Us Than Need To Will-- Unless Trump Gets It First

Americans' instincts would be to rally around the president in a time of crisis. Yesterday Digby warned that the exception to that rule is when the president is an incompetent, self-serving sociopath. "Some feel," she wrote, "that one should fall in line behind the president when something like this happens, just as a matter of principle. Others think it’s wrong to cast doubt on his abilities and make members of the public even more nervous than they already are. And then there’s the view that criticizing him may backfire politically on the Democrats because the public doesn’t want to see partisanship during a time of crisis." Digby feels that all those arguments are wrong.

Holding an elected official accountable at any time is the right thing to do in a democracy, and pointing out that he is doing a terrible job-- when he is obviously doing a terrible job-- makes people less nervous. Of course the president’s allies will complain about partisanship if their political opponents point out his failures. But unfortunately, they will refuse to hold him accountable themselves no matter what he does.

In any case, we have enough lies in our political culture already. We are drowning in them. If we can do nothing else in this surreal situation, we must strive to adhere to the truth as we see it or we’ll lose all sense of reason. And the reality, of course, is that President Trump is making things worse.

This should come as no surprise. As Maggie Haberman and Peter Baker of the New York Times put it:

Trump’s performance on the national stage in recent weeks has put on display the traits that Democrats and some Republicans consider so jarring-- the profound need for personal praise, the propensity to blame others, the lack of human empathy, the penchant for rewriting history, the disregard for expertise, the distortion of facts, the impatience with scrutiny or criticism. For years, skeptics expressed concern about how he would handle a genuine crisis threatening the nation, and now they know.

... His now-daily press conferences have become an anxiety-producing cacophony of lies and confusion, exactly the opposite of their intended purpose. To pretend that this president is behaving normally, or is even vaguely trustworthy, so that people won’t be nervous, or won’t think one is being partisan, would only make this terrifying crisis worse. Telling the truth is all we’ve got.

And not just anxiety-producing. Even worse is that they are producing bad policy-- bad as in policy that will kill hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of Americans who do not need to die. 2.2 million and ten million are figures that are being tossed around now as the number of deaths if Trump follows through with the back-to-work agenda he and Kushner have cooked up.

Let me make this really simple. It takes 8 weeks (minimum) after a total-- as in mandatory and enforced-- shutdown/lockdown before the curve gets flattened enough so that the pandemic is under control. At this point, the U.S.-- entirely because of T.R.U.M.P. hasn't even started that countdown. Here in California, one of the "best" states fighting this, there are more loopholes than shutdowns. At my local grocery stores, about half the customers and half the cashiers are not wearing masks-- meaning they are part of the chain spreading the pandemic.

You know when you'll know the just-eight-more-weeks kicks in? When it is mandatory that anyone out of their house is wearing a mask. Mandatory means that if they don't wear a mask there is social retribution. Now people give them the evil eye. I witnessed a fight on a supermarket line on Monday when a guy with no mask got online behind a guy with a mask and the guy with the mask forced him to stand 6 feet away from him. In Europe, people without masks get steep fines. At some point, people may have to be arrested. In Trump states, where the response so far is to have Corona beer parties and laugh at the liberals, people will start dying in large numbers. At that point, the Corona beer partiers will probably start enforcing a mask policy with their guns.

Yesterday NY Times reporters Jim Tankersley, Maggie Haberman and Roni Caryn Rabin wrote that Trump is hankerin' to re-open the (not yet even sufficiently shut down) economy, despite his own medical experts' advice. Instead of his medical experts, he's consulting fake epidemiologist Jared Kushner, a handful of craven Wall Street cronies and some conservative pseudo-economists. "Consensus," they wrote, "continues to grow among government leaders and health officials that the best way to defeat the virus is to order nonessential businesses to close and residents to confine themselves at home. Britain, after initially resisting such measures, essentially locked down its economy on Monday, as did the governors of Virginia, Michigan and Oregon. More than 100 million Americans will soon be subject to stay-at-home orders. Relaxing those restrictions could significantly increase the death toll from the virus, public health officials warn... resuming normal activity prematurely would only strain hospitals and result in even more deaths, while exacerbating a recession that has most likely already arrived."

The Trumpist Regime announced on Monday that it is "reassessing" the shutdown that he never had the political will or the personal guts to even put in place. Clown: "Our country wasn’t built to be shut down. America will, again, and soon, be open for business. Very soon. A lot sooner than three or four months that somebody was suggesting. Lot sooner. We cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself." Corporate America and conservative politicians are cheering him on.

Any push to loosen the new limits on commerce and movement would contradict the consensus advice of public health officials, risking a surge in infections and deaths from the virus. Many economists warn that abruptly reopening the economy could backfire, overwhelming an already stressed health care system, sowing uncertainty among consumers, and ultimately dealing deeper, longer-lasting damage to growth.

The recent rise of cases in Hong Kong, after there had been an easing of the spread of the virus, is something of an object lesson about how ending strict measures too soon can have dangerous consequences. Yet places like China, which took the idea of lockdown to the extreme, have managed to flatten the curve.

“You can’t call off the best weapon we have, which is social isolation, even out of economic desperation, unless you’re willing to be responsible for a mountain of deaths,” said Arthur Caplan, a professor of bioethics at NYU Langone Medical Center. “Thirty days makes more sense than 15 days. Can’t we try to put people’s lives first for at least a month?”

For the last four days, some White House officials, including those working for Vice President Mike Pence, who leads the coronavirus task force, have been raising questions about when the government should start easing restrictions.

Among the options being discussed are narrowing restrictions on economic activity to target specific age groups or locations, as well as increasing the numbers of people who can be together in groups, said one official, who cautioned that the discussions were preliminary.

Health officials inside the administration have mostly opposed that idea, including Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, an infectious diseases expert and a member of the White House coronavirus task force, who has said in interviews that he believes it will be “at least” several more weeks until people can start going about their lives in a more normal fashion.

Dr. Deborah L. Birx, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, said the United States had learned from other countries like China and South Korea, which were able to control the spread of the virus through strict measures and widespread testing.

“Those were eight- to 10-week curves,” she said on Monday, adding that “each state and each hot spot in the United States is going to be its own curve because the seeds came in at different times.”

Dr. Birx added that the response “has to be very tailored geographically and it may have to be tailored by age group, really understanding who’s at the greatest risk and understanding how to protect them.”

Other advisers, including members of Mr. Trump’s economic team, have said repeatedly in recent months that the virus does not itself pose an extraordinary threat to Americans’ lives or the economy, likening it to a common flu season. Some advisers believe the White House overreacted to criticism of Mr. Trump’s muted actions to deal with the emerging pandemic and gave health experts too large a sway in policymaking.

On Monday, Mr. Trump echoed those concerns, saying that things like the flu or car accidents posed as much of a threat to Americans as the coronavirus and that the response to those was far less draconian.

“We have a very active flu season, more active than most. It’s looking like it’s heading to 50,000 or more deaths,” he said, adding: “That’s a lot. And you look at automobile accidents, which are far greater than any numbers we’re talking about. That doesn’t mean we’re going to tell everybody no more driving of cars. So we have to do things to get our country open.”

Mr. Trump has watched as a record economic expansion and booming stock market that served as the basis of his re-election campaign evaporated in a matter of weeks. The president became engaged with the discussion on Sunday evening, after watching television reports and hearing from various business officials and outside advisers who were agitating for an end to the shutdown.

Casey Mulligan, a University of Chicago professor who served as chief economist for Mr. Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, said on Monday that efforts to shut down economic activity to slow the virus would be more damaging than doing nothing at all. He suggested a middle ground, one that weighs the costs and benefits of saving additional lives.

“It’s a little bit like, when you discover sex can be dangerous, you don’t come out and say, there should be no more sex,” Mr. Mulligan said. “You should give people guidance on how to have sex less dangerously.”

Many other economists say the restrictions in activity now are helping the economy in the long run, by beginning to suppress the infection rate.

“The idea that there’s a trade-off between health and economics right now is likely badly mistaken,” said Jason Furman of Harvard University, a former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Barack Obama. “The thing damaging our economy is a virus. Everyone who is trying to stop that virus is working to limit the damage it does to our economy and help our eventual rebound. The choice may well be taking pretty extreme steps now or taking very extreme steps later.”

Mr. Furman and other economists have pushed Mr. Trump and Congress to ease the economic pain by offering trillions of dollars in government assistance to affected workers and businesses. As lawmakers tried to negotiate an agreement on such a bill Monday, an influential business lobbying group, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said it supported restrictions on the economy to slow the virus.

“Our view is, when it comes to how you contain the virus, you do everything the public health professionals say to contain the virus,” said Neil Bradley, the chamber’s executive vice president and chief policy officer.

...Dan Patrick, Texas’ lieutenant governor, said Monday on Fox News that he was in the “high-risk pool” but would be willing to risk his life to preserve the country for his children and grandchildren.

“We are going to be in a total collapse, recession, depression, collapse in our society,” said Mr. Patrick, who turns 70 next week. “If this goes on another several months, there won’t be any jobs to come back to for many people.”

But public health officials stress that there would be consequences to ending the measures too quickly. In a tweet on Monday morning, Thomas P. Bossert, the former homeland security adviser who for weeks has been vocal about the need for the U.S. government to take stricter measures, said: “Sadly, the numbers now suggest the U.S. is poised to take the lead in #coronavirus cases. It’s reasonable to plan for the US to top the list of countries with the most cases in approximately 1 week. This does NOT make social intervention futile. It makes it imperative!”

Mr. Trump’s interest in potentially easing some of the restrictions met with pushback from one of his close allies, Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, who himself self-quarantined after a potential exposure. “President Trump’s best decision was stopping travel from China early on,” Mr. Graham tweeted on Monday. “I hope we will not undercut that decision by suggesting we back off aggressive containment policies within the United States.”

Health officials remain largely united in defense of sustaining the restrictions.

“There is a way to think through how and when to start reopening our economy and society, and it’s important to get this right,” said Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, a former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Dr. Tom Inglesby, the director of the Center for Health Security at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, pointed to the experience of countries like Italy, which did not institute aggressive measures to stop the spread of the virus and saw infection rates and deaths soar as a result.

The United States will need “a couple weeks” to see positive effects from its measures, Dr. Inglesby said, and abandoning them would mean “patients will get sick in extraordinary numbers all over the country, far beyond what the U.S. health care system will bear.”

I know I ran this Chris Martenson video yesterday but it's one everyone really needs to watch. I wish Trump and Kushner and all the people giving them such bad-- usually self-serving-- advice would take a half hour to listen to it as well. Señor Trumpanzee's foolish plan to prematurely end the fight against the pandemic and declare "victory" won't flatten the curve, it will make the curve much steeper, meaning more and more deaths, regardless of his incredibly moronic, manipulative tweets.

Gay Identity Politics-- McKinsey Pete

Monday, I responded to a tweet about some random guy primarying Jan Schakowsky (D-IL): "Jan Schakowsky is one of the best members of Congress & is one of the few who has NOT failed us." Notice what I didn't say: Jan Schawkowsky is one of the best female members of Congress" or even "Jan Schawkowsky is one of the best Jewish members of Congress"-- although she is both. But doesn't it sound better that she's just flat out one of the best members of Congress? You know where I learned that? Listening to Joni Mitchell explode when a reviewer would refer to her as the world's greatest female songwriter. From her reaction, you might think the reviewer had written that she has no songwriting ability at all. In her world, her rivals were always Bob Dylan and Neil Young and she sees herself as the best songwriter in the world. It wasn't uncommon to see Joni work on a song for longer than it took Neil to write and record an entire album.

If you read DWT much, you probably know how much I hate identity politics. Picking a candidate for any reason other than their qualifications sickens me and makes me worry for the health of a Democratic Party that is riven with leaders who are all about aggressively choosing people based on extraneous characteristics, even if it means winding up with less qualified-- or even unqualified-- people in positions. Many of my friends disagree with me on this'd I've been through the pros and cons countless times. Monday morning, a weak L.A. Times reporter, Janet Hook, wrote that McKinsey Pete is inspiring pride among gay voters.

I'm a gay voter and I don't feel a twinge of pride in that. I'm glad an openly gay person can run for office but...





My "but" is different than the but Hook wrote about. But but is that he's a crap candidate who spent much of his life in the closet, developing an ability to lie and deceive-- which is what people in the closet do-- and then fit in perfectly with the world's biggest-- and worst-- consulting firm, McKinsey, which trains its robots to lie flawlessly and without blinking. Hook says the but for gay voters is that they fear he can't win. Thank God for small favors!

Win or lose in the 2020 presidential race, Pete Buttigieg, the 37-year-old mayor of South Bend, Ind., is energizing LGBTQ Americans. With his surprisingly strong run for the Democratic presidential nomination, he is helping a long-marginalized community advance in political stature and pride in a way some compare to the effect Barack Obama’s presidency had on African Americans.

“Mayor Pete Buttigieg is transforming America’s perception of LGBTQ people,” said Annise Parker, president of the Victory Fund, an LGBTQ political group that endorsed Buttigieg in June, the first time it had endorsed a presidential candidate.

Buttigieg does not put his sexual orientation at the center of his campaign, but he is not hiding it either. In recent weeks, as his campaign gained prominence, he has made high-profile appearances before predominantly gay audiences.

When he traveled to Provincetown for a campaign event and fundraiser Friday, Buttigieg and his husband, Chasten, received a hero’s welcome from a town that, after the 2010 census, had the highest proportion of same-sex couples in the country.

It was a long way from Iowa, where Buttigieg was heckled by antigay activists this year. In P-town, as the city is known, a popular eatery painted a welcome message to the Buttigiegs in its window. An art gallery displayed an enormous portrait of Buttigieg. He met with students attending a local summer camp for LGBTQ youths. Throngs gathered during a morning stroll through town.

“It felt like our own little parade,” Buttigieg said at an afternoon event where hundreds in the hall-- and hundreds more in the overflow crowd outside-- waved “PETETOWN’’ signs. “It reminds me of what it is to be in a place that celebrates inclusion, that celebrates belonging.”

Buttigieg and his husband have become the most high-profile gay male couple in America. Images of the pair kissing at campaign events have been broadcast across the country. They have appeared together on the cover of Time magazine.

Asked about potential backlash, Buttigieg cites his experience coming out as gay in the conservative state of Indiana in 2015 just before running for reelection as South Bend mayor.

“I came out not knowing what the consequences would be and, in the end, got reelected with 80% of the vote,” he told reporters in Provincetown. “You have to give people a chance to show they can move beyond prejudice.”

But that could be a risky political bet in a campaign against President Trump. Many of Trump’s supporters are among the 31% of Americans who oppose gay marriage, according to a 2019 Pew Research Center poll, and even some of Buttigieg’s admirers question whether the country will accept a gay man as president.

“Homophobia is a very real thing; however, it is not as visible as racism,” said Damian Archer, a gay African American man at Buttigieg’s Friday rally who is undecided about which candidate to support in 2020.

Rufus Gifford, a gay former Obama administration official, who admires Buttigieg but has not committed to him or any other candidate, says: “I do worry with the stakes as high as they are, I ask myself every day: Is the U.S. ready to elect an openly gay president? I still question it. I’m scared to death we’ll reelect Donald Trump.”

Still, the response to Buttigieg’s candidacy is a remarkable sign of one of the fastest shifts in public attitudes ever measured in the U.S.: the growth in acceptance of homosexuality to the point that, at least among Democratic primary voters, Buttigieg’s orientation has ended up a political asset, not a liability.

Some 61% of Americans support same-sex marriage-- double the share in 2004, when only 31% did, according to the Pew Research Center.

Even within the Democratic Party, in 2008, none of the leading presidential candidates supported gay marriage. The ban on gays serving openly in the military ended only in 2011. It was just four years ago, 2015, that the Supreme Court ruled that same-sex marriage could not be banned by states.

“I heard a woman from Alabama call Pete Buttigieg wholesome,” said Richard Holt, a board member of the Victory Fund. “I never thought I’d hear a Bible Belt mother refer to a gay guy as wholesome.”

Buttigieg often appears with his husband. With an active social media presence, Chasten Buttigieg has gained outsize celebrity and embraced the “candidate’s spouse” role with humor and style.

When the pair emerged from a black SUV for a June Victory Fund event in Brooklyn, attendees seemed almost as excited to see the spouse as the candidate.

The event, like the Provincetown visit, was a respite for Buttigieg, who has been battered by criticism for his handling of racial tensions in South Bend after a black man was shot by a white policeman. The fund’s endorsement had been scheduled for earlier in June but was postponed when Buttigieg returned to South Bend to cope with the crisis.

It was rescheduled to a propitious day-- the 50th anniversary of the Stonewall uprising, a landmark in the history of the LGBTQ rights movement that occurred after police raided a gay bar in New York City.

“We haven’t seen equality come to the land, not by a long shot, but think about what it means that 50 years after Stonewall, we could be gathered in a room with a top-tier candidate for the American presidency and be in a room with his husband,” Buttigieg said to cheers.

Buttigieg rose implausibly fast in the party’s big 2020 presidential field in part because he is gay. That fact helped him stand out from the pack and garner media attention, and drew a big infusion of early campaign donations from the LGBTQ community. He went on to raisean impressive $24.8 million in the second quarter, more than any of his rivals have announced so far.

Los Angeles political consultant David Wolf said Buttigieg has received significant fundraising support from Hollywood’s LGBTQ community, including TV producer Ryan Murphy and prominent agents Bryan Lourd and Kevin Huvane.

Buttigieg added to his coffers Friday at the Provincetown fundraiser organized by Bryan Rafanelli, a major Democratic donor who also hosted a Buttigieg event this year at Fenway Park in Boston.

For many Democrats-- gay and straight-- Buttigieg’s biggest liability is not his sexuality, but that he is too young, too inexperienced or not liberal enough.

“I’m still concerned about his ability to beat Trump,” said Mitchell Katine, a Houston lawyer who helped win a landmark 2003 Supreme Court ruling that decriminalized gay sex. “I want him to be in the running and continue this education process. But he’ll have to convince me he can beat Trump.”

Antigay sentiment is still a powerful force. There are only 20 states where LGBTQ people are protected against discrimination in employment, housing and public accommodations. Just 46% of Republicans say they are open to electing a gay president, an April Quinnipiac University poll found.

Nor does Buttigieg have a monopoly on LGBTQ voters. Former Vice President Joe Biden earned the allegiance of many with his 2012 endorsement of gay marriage-- getting out in front of Obama on the issue. Sen. Kamala Harris of California enjoys strong support in San Francisco’s gay community.

A group of 47 LGBTQ activists and elected officials announced their endorsements of Harris last weekend ahead of her participation in the city’s Pride parade.

A June poll of LGBTQ voters by Whitman Insight Strategies and BuzzFeed News found a noteworthy gender gap. Buttigieg was the top choice among Democratic gay men, with 27% saying they were likely to support him.

Among lesbians, however, Buttigieg was fifth choice, with just 13% saying they’d likely support him, behind Harris, Biden and Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.

Some lesbians are torn between their interest in Buttigieg and a desire to elect a female president. But Kate Wise, a gay woman from Cleveland who was in New York for the World Pride celebration, said she was all in for Buttigieg from the minute he announced.

“We landed a bro on the top of the pile,” Wise said. But she added, “He would be my guy even if he was not gay.”

Whether he wins the party nomination and goes on to the White House, gay activists hope Buttigieg will help inspire other LGBTQ candidates running up and down the ballot.

“He can have coattails,” Holt said. “We have to have representatives at all levels.”

Harvey Milk was an incredible person who I spent great deal of time with when he was on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors. When I arrived in San Francisco, penniless, he staked me the darkroom equipment I used to set up a photography business and later became his campaign photographer. Many of the unacknowledged photos you see of him were pictures I took. (The Times of Harvey Milk film credits me for my pictures by the rest are just routinely stolen. Sorry for the tangent.) I remember once sitting with Harvey in the back of his photo shop on Castro Street. He had a mail sack filled with letters from all over the country. I remember one from a kid in Kansas or Nebraska. My eyes still well up with tears, around 4 decades later, when I think about it. This kid read about Harvey's election and it made him revaluate his own self-worth and to rescind his decision to commit suicide. Harvey was an inspiring figure. It wasn't just because he was the first openly gay person to win elective office; it was because of who he was. That's not who McKinsey Pete is.

Contest Coming-- Help Tim Canova Pick The Prize

One of the ways Blue America helps the candidates we endorse is by donating rock'n'roll memorabilia from my old days as a music business executive. We're going to do one with Tim Canova next. He's running for the Broward/Miami-Dade seat that Debbie Wasserman Schultz appears to have stolen last cycle. So gave him the choice of a bunch of platinum awards rear were given to me personally. Here's the e-mail Tim sent his supporters yesterday:

I am excited to report that Blue America-- a fearless progressive grassroots group and the first to endorse us against Debbie Wasserman Schultz-- will give away an original platinum album to help support our campaign.

The only problem is that we have not yet decided which album to raffle off to our supporters!  The choices are hit albums by Erasure, Chris Isaak, and Barenaked Ladies. But we’re leaving that decision up to all of you!

Please let us know by sometime this Friday, January 26th which is your choice of album to be raffled off:

• Barenaked Ladies - GORDON (1992)
        Debut studio album with such classic hits, "If I Had $1,000,000,"
          "Be My Yoko Ono" and "Brian Wilson"

 • Chris Issak - FOREVER BLUE (1995)
        Nominated for a Best Rock Album Grammy in 1996
        Hit songs: "Somebody's Crying" and "Baby Did a Bad, Bad Thing"

 • Erasure - THE INNOCENTS (1988)
        Hit songs: "A Little Respect," "Chains of Love" and "Ship of Fools"

We will follow up soon after your votes are in with another email that announces which album is selected by all of you, and allows you to enter the raffle contest by making a contribution of any size to our campaign.

If you want to vote, just click here. And whichever album gets the most votes, that's the one we'll use as the prize in the Tim Canova contest. I always loved this one... Andy and Vince are such great guys. Last time I looked, Barenaked Ladies were out ahead.

Monday Night Music-- What Do People Like Best In Different Places?

OK, so the best selling musical act from Kansas is the band Kansas. How hard would that have been to guess? Or Phish in Vermont? Or that it's Chicago in Illinois (remember them)? And native daughter Madonna in Michigan-- at least it wasn't Nugent or Kid Rock-- and, sadly, the Eagles in California and Prince in Minnesota and Michael Jackson in Indiana. And Mississippi? Well, Elvis of course. How cool is Hawaii, though? Bruno Mars! And Nevada? No, not Dean Martin or Frank Sinatra or even Celine Dionne-- The Killers!

What about total squaresville? Maybe Florida is being punished because of its affinity top the Backstreet Boys. I never heard the Mannheim Steamroller until just now, but that's the top band in Nebraska. I'm never going there-- never.



Iowans like Andy Williams and Idahoans dig that secret Paul Revere and the Raiders neo-Nazi backward masking messaging. And-- wow!-- Hootie and the Blowfish are still top dog in South Carolina. In Washington state, it's always time for Kenny G. Between NY, NJ, Connecticut and Pennsylvania who's worst, respectively, Mariah Carey, Whitney Houston, Michael Bolton or Taylor Swift. No comment on Ohio. And in the state where they just elected Dick Cheney's crackpot daughter to Congress... Spencer Bohren.

I remember, when I worked at Sire and Texas was ground zero for breaking Book of Love, Erasure and Depeche Mode.



They sure flipped blue to red! The big enchilada down in the Lone Star State is now George Strait. Ever hear Portugal, the Man? That's what Sarah Palin rocks out to when she's buzzing around the house on meth.



But the biggest winner of all-- and the most shocking for me-- is North Dakota's choice. No comment on the musical worthiness, but Wiz Khalifa's video, the one just below has over 3 BILLION views on YouTube. 3 BILLION! The biggest Beatles song is Don't Let Me Down and it only has 88,392,026 YouTube views. They'll never get to 3 billion!



Any better in England? Well there's a map like the one above for every borough in London and who the biggest selling musical act is:

It seems more relatable, at least for me. And, like in the U.S. it seems to be mostly driven by who comes from the places:

Ronnie Wood – Hillingdon
Elton John – Harrow
George Michael – Barnet
Amy Winehouse – Enfield
Iron Maiden – Formed by Steve Harris in Waltham Forest, where Harris was born
Dire Straits – Formed in Lewisham
Led Zeppelin – Formed in Bexley where John Paul Jones was born
Coldplay – Formed at UCL in Islington
David Bowie – Lambeth
Jools Holland – Greenwich
Rod Stewart – Camden
Billy Bragg – Barking and Dagenham
Kathy Kirby – Redbridge
Ian Drury – Raised in Havering
Professor Green – Hackney
Dizzee Rascal – Tower Hamlets
Jay Sean – Brent
Dusty Springfield – Raised in Ealing
The Kinks – Formed in Haringey
Linda Lewis – Newham
Billy Idol – Raised in Bromley

CHRISTMAS IN REPUBLICAN WORLD: It’s Republican World, 2015 In Review-- Chapter Seven

- By Noah

In Republican World, not only does Santa have to be white, but there’s a whole War On Christmas itself! How do we know? FOX, Limbaugh, Laura Ingraham, Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, “Ted” Cruz, and any number of other Republican charlatans and crazies tell us so.

In the real world, the imagined “War On Christmas” is just yet another example of how Republicans play their victim cards and caress them to their chests like pictures of Ronald Reagan.

I congratulate The Onion for the following Pulitzer-worthy reporting from Republican World. Their depiction of the horrible abuse facing Christians who live in Republican World is heart-rending. Knowing FOX’s penchant for treating articles from The Onion as real, I expect that FOX & Friends will be telling this story in the glow of yule logs for years to come.

The gathered Christians listen to Trans-Siberian Orchestra’s Carol Of The Bells at low volume for fear that someone on the surface might hear

Nation’s Oppressed Christians Huddle Underground To Light Single Shriveled Christmas Shrub

UNDISCLOSED LOCATION— Persecuted and driven into hiding because of their beliefs, the nation’s oppressed Christians reportedly huddled in a secret underground bunker late Wednesday night to decorate and light a single withered Christmas shrub.

At great personal risk, the Christians were said to have smuggled in a few strings of colored mini lights, tinsel, popcorn garlands, Hallmark Keepsake ornaments, and other contraband in order to trim the shrub inside the subterranean chamber, the last place in America where they were safe to celebrate Christmas.

"We have come together today to observe a Christian holiday that has been all but stamped out on the surface," said a man who wished to be identified only as "Greg," after hanging a figurine of Mickey Mouse dressed as Santa Claus from one of the shrub’s boughs. "I can’t say this humble bush is much of a Christmas tree, but it was the largest we could manage to get here, given the circumstances. Let us remember, though, that to merely celebrate Christmas-- to exchange gifts and eat our candy canes in peace-- without the government or the powerful secular elite coming in and destroying it is a blessing in itself."

"They want to bring an end to our holiest day," he added, as several others erected a 3-foot-tall light-up Grinch and plastic signpost bearing the words "Santa Stop Here" behind him. "It is up to us to keep Christmas alive."

After double-checking on the chamber’s entrance hatch to ensure it was tightly closed and locked, Greg then reportedly led the gathered Christians in hushed renditions of "God Rest Ye Merry Gentlemen" and "A Holly Jolly Christmas" as the shrub was lit.

Those in attendance, many of whom had trekked hundreds or even thousands of miles, spoke of the great sacrifices they had made solely so that they could look upon an actual Christmas tree with their own eyes. A number of the Christians recounted how they had secretly carried a brightly painted plastic nativity scene and an inflatable 7-foot-tall snowman to the secret site, the latter item having been trafficked across three states in a truck with a false bottom. Others mentioned how they had sewed a few star- and wreath-shaped sugar cookies into the linings of their coats to avoid detection by the masses who sought to erase their holiday-- and ultimately, their entire faith-- from American life.

Reports confirmed that many who had arrived in the hidden underground sanctuary immediately broke down in tears upon being greeted with the forbidden words "Merry Christmas," a phrase none had heard spoken openly in years for fear of harsh reprisals.

"It was difficult and dangerous to get here, but it’s all worth it to actually be able to celebrate the birth of Jesus," said a 42-year-old teacher from Virginia who refused to give her name as she helped flock the shrub with a spray can of fake snow and arranged gifts of Yankee Candles and Amazon gift cards underneath its meager branches. "Unfortunately, this is the only way we can practice our beliefs now that corporations, the media, and our elected leaders have all conspired to remove every trace of Christmas from the country."

"I just want to make sure my kids know what Christmas is really about," she continued, adjusting the plush reindeer antlers atop her head and switching on her glowing Rudolph nose.

After the Christmas shrub was lit, the Christians were reportedly grateful to partake in other sacred traditions without fear of interference or abuse, such as the reading of the 2005 storybook classic The Elf On The Shelf and the viewing of grainy VHS copies of A Charlie Brown Christmas, The Santa Clause, and other beloved films that had been passed down through the generations.

Sources confirmed that as the evening drew to a close, all of their wrapping paper, Christmas cards, and fabric Santa hats were burned in trash cans to erase any evidence of the shunned celebration. The wary Christians then reportedly removed all incriminating green-and-red items from their persons and dispersed in small groups so as not to attract attention from federal authorities.

"Make sure your little ones destroy their stockings before you leave and empty their pockets of any trinkets or bells-- they mustn’t have anything on them that jingles," one man was overheard saying tearfully to a friend before embracing him and slipping off into the night. "I’ll see you again next December, God willing. Stay safe out there."