Saturday, October 31, 2020

Wave Or Tsunami Tuesday?



A loss of Florida's 29 electoral votes ends Trump's reelection effort on the spot. There's just no reasonable path to victory for him without it. The polling averages have favored Biden. At RealClearPolitics, Trump is down 1.2 points. The most recent poll, by Harris X for The Hill shows Trump losing 50% to 47% and the newest Marist poll for NBC News shows Trump losing 51-47%. But yesterday, according to Politico's Florida ace reporter, Marc Caputo, the entirely incompetent and degenerate Florida Democratic Party is "sounding the alarm about weak voter turnout rates in Florida’s biggest county, Miami-Dade, where a strong Republican showing is endangering Biden’s chances." Biden needs a massive win in Miami-Dade to "offset losses elsewhere in the state. But Democrats are turning out at lower rates than Republicans and at lower rates than at this point in 2016, when Hillary Clinton won by 29 percentage points here and still lost the state to Donald Trump."

A must-win state for Biden is Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) and Trump's crooked post master general is doing what he was hired to do: wreck the postal system. Harrisburg's Patriot-News reported that "Timely mail delivery across Pennsylvania took a drastic turn for the worse in just the last two weeks amid a glut of voting by mail, according to U.S. Postal Service data filed Wednesday in federal court. In Philadelphia, 42% of all first-class mail is taking longer than five days to be delivered. For comparison, that figure was 33% two weeks ago and just 13% in January, before a series of changes handed down by the Trump administration led to a national slowdown... In central Pennsylvania, workers observed significant slowdowns due to short staffing and changes in USPS policy handed down by the Trump administration. Despite a battery of recent court rulings order a return to the old policies, they said not much seemed to change." Can Trump steal Pennsylvania? The RealClearPolitics polling average has him down 49.9% to 45.6% (4.3%) and the latest poll from Quinnipiac shows Trump losing Pennsylvania 51-44% (7 points).

Asterisked- Worst President in History by Nancy Ohanian

Charlie Cook, writing for the NationalJournal yesterday noted that the likelihood of a contested election is slim and that "Biden’s path to 270 electoral votes seems pretty straightforward: Hold all 20 states (plus the District of Columbia) that Hillary Clinton carried four years ago, which total 232 electoral votes, just 38 short of the majority threshold of 270. Then win each of the three states that Clinton lost by eight-tenths of a point or less: Michigan (0.2 percentage points) Pennsylvania (0.7), and Wisconsin (0.8). That gives him 278 electoral votes, eight more than needed. Biden will likely also carry two congressional districts that eluded Clinton in 2016, Nebraska’s 2nd District and Maine’s 2nd, giving him 280 electoral votes. That would represent a 'skinny' Biden win." Cook wrote that he believes Trump is losing nationally by between 9 and 10 points, "considerably higher than the 3.2-point national margin that Hillary Clinton had over Trump in the RCP average on Oct. 29, 2016. When all the votes were counted, the margin ended up being 2.1 percent."
A big Biden win would bring in Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina, and might also include one or two states from the next tier, mostly likely Georgia or Iowa, although don’t count out Ohio or Texas. Generally speaking, Trump is underperforming his 2016 pace by 3 to 8 points, depending upon the state or district.

...What I am wondering is if this will be one or the rarest species of national elections-- a wave election in a presidential year ending in a zero, meaning it will reverberate for a decade thanks to the coming redistricting. There are not a dozen Republican Senate seats that could fall, as Democrats suffered in 1980, but Joe Biden may well replicate Ronald Reagan’s 10-point victory over President Carter. The odds are it will be a bit less, perhaps in the 53 to 44 percent range, with 3 percent going to independents and write-ins, half of the number from four years ago.
He sees a Democratic takeover of the Senate with losses by Martha McSally (AZ), Cory Gardner (CO),) and Thom Tillis (NC) and possibly Joni Ernst (IA), Susan Collins (ME), and one or even both of the Georgia seats (Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue). He says that less likely but still possible are GOP losses in Montana (Steve Daines) and South Carolina (Lindsey Graham), as well as the open seat in Kansas. He forgot the Alaska race, where Dan Sullivan is in trouble.

Cook says he sees as many as 10 more GOP House seats going down. I think he's being very conservative there are I'm looking for Republican losses in the following districts (bolden districts almost certain; unbolded only if the wave turns into a tsunami):
AR-02 (Hill)
AZ-06 (Schweikert)
CA-01 (LaMalfa)
CA-25 (Garcia)
CA-42 (Calvert)
CO-03 (open- Tipton)
FL-03 (open- Yoho)
FL-16 (Buchanan)
GA-07 (open- Woodall)
IA-04 (open- King)
IL-13 (Davis)
IN-05 (open- Brooks)
MI-06 (Upton)
MN-01 (Hagedorn)
MO-02 (Wagner)
NC-02 (open- Holding)
NC-06 (open- Walker)
NC-08 (Hudson)
NC-11 (open- Meadows)
NE-02 (Bacon)
NJ-02 (Van Drew)
NY-01 (Zeldin)
NY-o2 (open- King)
NY-24 (Katko)
NY-27 (Jacobs)
OH-01 (Chabot)
PA-01 (Fitzpatrick)
TX-10 (McCaul)
TX-21 (Roy)
TX-22 (open- Olson)
TX-23 (open- Hurd)
TX-24 (open- Marchant)
TX-25 (Williams)
VA-05 (open- Riggleman)

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At 6:03 AM, Anonymous Hone said...

I am not ruling out Texas, where I lived in the 1970's. Remember, this was Lyndon Johnson's state, a blue state back in the day. Also, Bet's strong turnout two years ago may well have been a harbinger of what is to come. Too bad Beto's ego got in the way and he did not run for the other Senate seat now up. My best guess (which is worthless, of course, as I am just one person) is that Texas is a better bet than Florida for turning blue.

At 6:10 AM, Anonymous Jacqrat said...

RE: Miami Dade "Low Voter Turnout"

I think I found what the problem is in Miami-Dade:

Raw footage of mailroom in post office here in Miami Dade. Source revealed “mail in ballots are within these piled up in bins on the floor. Mail has been sitting for over week!.”

At 7:13 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hone, remember that southern white racists were democrats until LBJ got civil and voting rights passed. Beginning in the '68 election, they became republicans in droves.

nixon, reagan, HW, cheney/W and trump all won by capitalizing on the electoral college and running race-baiting campaigns all through the south, including TX. TX will be racist long after trump's insanity creates a big enough anti-red wave there for biden to maybe win. It will whiplash back to nazi by 2022.

Democraps need to file suit in federal courts now (should have been weeks ago) to force the issue about counting all ballots everywhere that the USPS and the nazi party are sequestering. At the very least, it will force the federal courts again to reiterate that counting votes is not important in a democracy.

At some point the voters need to realize that:
1) voting in this shithole is largely a charade meant to keep them stupid
2) when counting votes is not important (since 2000 at least), this is not a democracy.

but will any voters have this epiphany?

At 8:55 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What if all voters have already had that epiphany, and are just more hip than you and are no longer talking about what everybody knows anyway? Because it just makes them boring. What if they vote anyway on the off chance it might matter for something. I mean my state has NO influence on the presidency and I will vote anyway on the chance my vote on state level measures might matter. But it might not? Oh and then what would you suggest, you think people don't protest just on the off chance it might matter, when there is no evidence of protests working in 50 years either it seems to me. I mean if people have no power, they have no power, and if noone has any plan for how they could get any power then anything is as worth trying and as little worth trying as anything else.

At 9:25 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The issue is set up to be completely overturned by SCrOTUS now that Amy Conehead has been rushed into place.

With the declaration that "the Constitution is just a piece of paper" and the voluminous evidence that there is no rule of law in the USA anymore, Trump's coup is essentially complete and he has gotten his desire to be "president" for life.

And for those know-it-alls who want to chide me to vote, my ballot was hand delivered to the Registrar's office two weeks ago, so STFU!

At 9:35 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

8:55, I also voted. And my vote is irrelevant too. I voted Green again.

I also voted for the better people who are not democraps down-ballot and for the better positions on initiatives, which, in my crimson district, is also irrelevant. But I still vote. yep, it is boring to be irrelevant.

what if people with nothing to say just didn't say anything?

At 12:17 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Then those who do have something to say will dominate.

It's analogous to In the Kingdom of the Blind, the One-eyed Man is King.

America - One Dollar, One Vote.

At 3:32 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

one billion dollars -- one vote (pelo$i'$). one dollar won't get you anything more than a coke at mcdonalds or a toxic plastic spoon made in china at the dollar store.


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