How Sick Will The Pandemic Make The Texas Republican Party By November?

Two COVID records for one-day case increases were broken Wednesday: the U.S. hit its highest number ever-- 51,097, it's first day over 50,000 (although yesterday that mark was topped again, this time with 57,236 new cases)-- and Texas increased by 8,240 cases, more than any country in the world other than the U.S., Brazil or India. Trump and Texas Governor Greg Abbott, and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, have failed-- and failed spectacularly-- in their approach to the deadly pandemic. 2,541 Texans are dead and before the end of the week Texas will have the third most cases of any state in the U.S., overtaking New Jersey. Baked into Texas' current caseload is the likelihood of over 20,000 deaths. Hospitals are already being swamped in Houston and because of Abbott's and Patrick's and their allies' response to the pandemic, this is going to get much worse.

Texas voters are realizing this isn't a game, even if their ideologically-driven leaders do not. For the most part, there is no blue wave coming to Texas in November. But there is a massive anti-red wave brewing, one that will sweep Democrats into office. Even the most conservative and scared-of-their-own-shadows professional prognosticators are claiming they see Republican election chances dimming all over the state.

Yesterday's PPP survey of Texas voters

Last cycle, Democrats claimed two Republican-held congressional districts, one in Houston and one in Dallas suburbs. Yesterday, Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball, noted that their are Democratic murmurings in the Texas suburbs, which is about as far out on a limb as that outfit will ever go this far in advance of an election. They moved 4 "safe" Republican seats into their "likely" column, including a top Blue America target, TX-25 in which progressive Julie Oliver is challenging corrupt reactionary Roger Williams.

At Blue America we see half a dozen Texas seats flipping-- TX-10 (Michael McCaul to Mike Siegel), TX-21 (Chip Roy to Wendy Davis), TX-22 (Pete Olson to Sri Kulkarni) TX-23 (Will Hurd to Gina Jones), and TX-24 (Kenny Marchant to Candace Valenzuela). So far we have endorsed in two of the races and import you to contribute to the two candidates we think will do the most to make Congress a more effective tool for working families-- which you can do by clicking on the "2020 Turning Texas Blue" thermometer on the right.

It isn't likely that Biden is going to win Texas-- despite an outlier Fox News poll last week that showed him slightly ahead-- but he is going to do better than most Democrats have in recent years and he is likely to win in parts of Texas where Obama and Hillary didn't. Wait! An important note here: Biden isn't going to do anything except be there as the GOP falls apart. Kondik pointed out that "In an average of the most recent polls, Trump leads by two points in Texas. In 2018, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) won reelection over then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D, TX-16) by 2.6 points. If Trump were to win Texas by a similar margin this November, the congressional district-level results probably would look a lot like the Cruz-O’Rourke race.

In his 2018 Senate race, Beto won 5 congressional districts that were held by Republicans, TX-07 and TX-31, where Democrats simultaneously vanquished both GOP incumbents, plus TX-10 (Michael McCaul), TX-23 (Will Hurd) and TX-24 (Kenny Marchant). And Beto came close in 7 other districts: TX-02 (Dan Crenshaw), TX-03 (Van Taylor), TX-06 (Ron Wright), TX-21(Chip Roy), TX-22 (Pete Olson), TX-25 (Roger Williams), TX-31 (John Carter). "If Biden were to actually carry Texas," wrote Kondik, "he might carry many or even all of these districts in the process. In a time when ticket-splitting is less common than in previous eras of American politics (though hardly extinct), that could exert some real pressure on Republicans in these districts."

Trump’s Texas sag in 2016 didn’t immediately imperil any Texas Republican U.S. House members, except for retiring Rep. Will Hurd (R) in the perpetually swingy TX-23; it took the 2018 midterm, when Trump’s unpopularity led to big House losses for Republicans, to make many of these districts much more competitive. So it’s possible that Biden could do really well, but not have strong-enough coattails in these and other similar kinds of districts. We also still like Trump’s chances in Texas, despite the close polls.

However, if that changes-- and if Biden wins the state without much ticket-splitting-- there could be some unpleasant surprises down the ballot for Republicans in Texas. That could also include control of the Texas state House of Representatives, which might be in play if things get bad enough for Republicans this November.

Redistricting looms for 2021-- at the very least, Republicans who currently control state government in Texas may have to dramatically re-draw the map to shore up incumbents whose safe seats have eroded over the course of the decade while also accommodating a few new House seats because of Texas’ explosive growth. For Republicans, their gerrymander after the last census (albeit blunted a little by judicial intervention) made practical political sense, but demographic changes and coalition shifts pushed 20 of the 36 districts to vote more Democratic than the state in the 2018 Senate race. And if Democrats somehow win the state House, they will have a formal seat at the table in the redistricting process next year.

And that brings us to this new TV ad from Mike Siegel. In 2018, with zero help from the DCCC, which saw him as "too progressive," Mike held McCaul to a 51.1% win, winning Travis County, the biggest in the district 80,864 (70.4%) to 30,857 (26.9%). Bastrop County was closer for Siegel than it was been for previous Democrats-- 8,454 (53.6%) for McCaul to 6,763 (42.9%) for Siegel. The Harris County portion of the district is where Mike had the most trouble, McCaul beating him 71,717 (62.6%) to 40,820 (35.6%).

Once the DCCC saw the district was winnable, they ran a conservative candidate against Siegel. He still came in first in the 3-way primary but because no one reached 50%, Mike has a runoff against a pointless candidate with no real positions a week from Tuesday (Bastille Day).

The March 3 Democratic primary in TX-10 drew 80,639 voters, while just 60,235 Republicans bothered to vote. Now, back to that ad. Mike has the Travis County (Austin) market pretty well covered. We're hoping he can run ads in Harris County as well. And we're asking you to buy his campaign an ad. It isn't all that expensive to buy just one. In fact, maybe you want to buy him a few. Here are some examples of shows in Austin they have already bought and which could easily go up on cable systems covering Cypress, Katy and Tombatt in Harris County and in Prairie View in Waller County, all places that could swing the general to Siegel.

• New Day on CNN -$13.00
• Andy Griffith on TVL- $7.00
• Friends on TBSC- $41.00
• Morning Joe on MSNBC- $65.00
• Beat Bobby Flay on the Food Network- $40.00
• Married to Medicine on BRVO- $45.00
• Rachel Maddow on MSNBC- $105.00

You can chip in by clicking on the thermometer above or at this link. When I first met Mike in 2018 he told me that his campaign is "fighting for healthcare for all and a reversal of the 2017 cuts; for fair immigration policies that keep families together; for a living wage and a retirement with dignity. We are fighting to keep corporate and NRA money out of politics." That's what his campaign is still about. And it helps explain not just why he's been endorsed by Blue America, but by Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Ted Lieu, Ro Khanna, Bill McKibben, Dolores Huerta, Jim Hightower, as well as the AFL-CIO, the Sunrise Movement, Our Revolution, the Working Families Party, the Austin Chronicle, the Daily Texan and the Houston Chronicle.





Late developments: someone talked Vanilla Ice into cancelling his show and Abbott seems to have woken up from a pandemic-long snooze and finally ordered a statewide mask mandate. I wonder if anyone in Texas ever heard about that ole horse/barndoor adage.