Only Trump Could Lose An Election In The Midst Of A National Emergency To A Candidate As Inert A Biden

Harry Enten, writing for CNN, has been widely quoted over the weekend saying that a new ABC News/Washington Post poll shows "Biden clearly ahead" of the Orange Menace-- double digits, 53% to 43% among registered voters. He added that in context things are even better for Biden and that "Biden's in one of the best positions for any challenger since scientific polling began in the 1930s."

There were more than 40 national public polls taken at least partially in the month of May that asked about the Biden-Trump matchup. Biden led in every single one of them. He's the first challenger to be ahead of the incumbent in every May poll since Jimmy Carter did so in 1976. Carter, of course, won the 1976 election. Biden's the only challenger to have the advantage in every May poll over an elected incumbent in the polling era.

Biden remains the lone challenger to be up in the average of polls in every single month of the election year. His average lead in a monthly average of polls has never dipped below 4 points and has usually been above it.

Biden hasn't trailed Trump this entire year in a single telephone poll in which at least some voters were reached via their cell phones-- historically the most accurate. The ABC News/Washington Post poll is the latest example of these polls. In fact, Biden's never been behind in any of these polls since at least January 2019. No other challenger has come close to that mark.

Indeed, the stability of Biden's edge has been what is most impressive. The May polls had Biden up by 6 points on average. That is right where the average of polls taken since the beginning of this year has been. It's where the average of polls conducted since the beginning of 2019 has been as well.

If we limit ourselves to just the telephone polls that call cell phones, Biden's edge might even be slightly larger. This month those polls have Biden up 7 points on average. Estimating Biden's advantage from state polls of this type shows a similar lead for Biden.

A look at the fundamentals shows why Trump continues to trail. Simply put, he remains unpopular.

His net approval rating (approval - disapproval) in the ABC News/Washington Post poll was -8 points. That's very close to the average of polls, which has it at about -10 points. At no point during the past three years has Trump ever had a positive net approval rating.

The only other two presidents to have a net approval rating this low at this point in the campaign were Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1992. Both of them lost reelection.

Imagine how absolutely loathed Trump is with these statistics for one of the most pathetic and useless candidates ever nominated by a major party in that same era! And Enten raises the possibility that even after many anti-Biden ads have been run and even with the pandemic dominating the news, it just may be possible that "nothing will move the electorate substantially in Trump's direction."

There are other reasons-- besides just Trump's awful job approval ratings-- for Trump's inability to catch up with such a nothing like Biden. For one thing, Trump's personal attributes, are weighing him down. About six in 10 registered voters don’t see Trump as honest and trustworthy (35%), don’t think he understands the problems of average Americans (38%) and don’t think he has the personality and temperament for the job (38%)... Trump’s difficulties on personal attributes are well-established and mostly stable. Biden generally does better-- but, at the same time, not particularly well. Fewer than half rate him as honest and trustworthy (48 percent, vs. 35 percent for Trump) or say he understands the problems of people like them (45 percent, vs. 38 percent for Trump). Only 46% say that Trump has the mental sharpness for the job. Somehow, 51% of voters have persuaded themselves that Biden does!

I doubt spiking COVID-cases are helping Trump (and the GOP) in swing states. The numbers look worse and worse outside the early states-- New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts-- which are all seeing significant improvements right now, however tenuous. But in most of the states Trump is counting on for his reelection, the pandemic is headed in the opposite direction, despite fudged statistics in some of those states-- Florida for sure and possibly probably in Texas and Georgia. The cases per million continue a growth pattern that points to increased deaths by autumn-- as well as more ultra-serious problems in the economy. 15 swing or swingy states Trump is counting on (according to his own campaign) with their cases per million as of this afternoon:

• Nebraska- 7,416 cases per million
• Iowa- 6,243
• Pennsylvania- 5,994
• Michigan- 5,761
• Virginia- 5,319
• Georgia- 4,511
• Minnesota- 4,470
• New Mexico- 3,720
• New Hampshire- 3,446
• Wisconsin- 3,185
• Ohio- 3,082
• Arizona- 2,765
• North Carolina- 2,821
• Florida- 2,646 (Florida reports far fewer cases for political reasons)
• Texas- 2,277

As conservative and former Republican George Will wrote in his column today: "The nation’s downward spiral into acrimony and sporadic anarchy has had many causes much larger than the small man who is the great exacerbator of them. Most of the causes predate his presidency, and most will survive its January terminus. The measures necessary for restoration of national equilibrium are many and will be protracted far beyond his removal. One such measure must be the removal of those in Congress who, unlike the sycophantic mediocrities who cosset him in the White House, will not disappear 'magically,' as Eric Trump said the coronavirus would. Voters must dispatch his congressional enablers, especially the senators who still gambol around his ankles with a canine hunger for petting. In life’s unforgiving arithmetic, we are the sum of our choices. Congressional Republicans have made theirs for more than 1,200 days. We cannot know all the measures necessary to restore the nation’s domestic health and international standing, but we know the first step: Senate Republicans must be routed, as condign punishment for their Vichyite collaboration."