Are You Ready To Resume A Normal Life-- Most Epidemiologists Are Not

I knew something was seriously wrong with me. I had all kinds of horrifying symptoms. But my doctor couldn't figure it out. So he sent me to see "the top" epidemiologist in L.A. I saw several epidemiologists over the course of over 2 years until someone stumbled upon a relative rare kind of cancer: mantle cell lymphoma. Over two years. I'm not a big fan of epidemiologists. A team of NY Times reporters interviewed 511 of them from around the country and published the results Monday: When 511 Epidemiologists Expect to Fly, Hug and Do 18 Other Everyday Activities Again. "Many epidemiologists," they wrote, "are already comfortable going to the doctor, socializing with small groups outside or bringing in mail, despite the coronavirus. But unless there’s an effective vaccine or treatment first, it will be more than a year before many say they will be willing to go to concerts, sporting events or religious services. And some may never greet people with hugs or handshakes again."

Maybe they know something. Maybe not. Just 64% said they're ready to bring in the mail without precautions this summer. Yeah, they don't know much. Bringing in the mail is safe for anyone who isn't likely to have a nervous breakdown from doing it. 17% said they're not bringing in the mail for a year or more and 3% said they will never bring in the mail again without precautions. The survey was done over the last week in May before the nation was convulsed in demonstrations about police nonchalantly murdering black civilians.

60% said they'd see a doctor for a non-urgent appointment this summer and 11% said a year or more. 56% said they'd vacation overnight within driving distance this summer and 18% said not for a year or more. And 41% said they'd get a haircut this summer while 19% said a year or more for that one. Here are other activities they were asked about:

Of course their responses took into account several factors, not least of which was expectations about when there will be widespread testing, contact tracing, treatment and vaccination for Covid-19. Key sentence Trump and his regime and way too many governors don't understand-- or pretend to not understand: "The virus sets the timeline," not arbitrary dates.

[A]s policymakers lift restrictions and protests break out nationwide over police brutality, epidemiologists must make their own decisions about what they will do, despite the uncertainty-- just like everyone else. They are more likely, though, to be immersed in the data about Covid-19 and have training on the dynamics of infectious disease and how to think about risk.

They mostly agreed that outdoor activities and small groups were safer than being indoors or in a crowd, and that masks would be necessary for a long time... Some said they would refrain from nearly all of the 20 activities until a vaccine for the virus had been widely distributed. Others said they would wait for a vaccine to do the indoor activities on the list.

...For some of the activities, there was significant disagreement.

Some said hair salons were relatively safe-- they aren’t usually crowded and have hygiene requirements-- while others said a haircut had a high risk because of the face-to-face contact. Forty-one percent would go now or this summer, but 19 percent plan to wait at least a year. One-third said they would attend a dinner party at a friend’s home this summer (many specified outdoors with appropriate distancing), while one-fifth said they would wait more than a year, potentially until there was a vaccine.

Epidemiologists say they are making decisions based on publicly available data for their region on things like infections and testing. Before choosing whether to do an activity, they might evaluate whether people are wearing masks, whether physical distancing is possible and whether there are alternative ways to do it. Because there is a chance of a second wave of infections, they say they may become less comfortable with certain activities over time, not more.

...The scientists are weighing coronavirus risks against the benefits of certain activities, including emotional well-being. While both funerals and weddings carry risk by bringing together large groups of people, several said they would prioritize attending a funeral. Some are choosing to socialize or send children to camp because of benefits like mental health, education or household harmony.

...Many epidemiologists said they may never greet people the same way again. Forty-two percent of the sample said they would not hug or shake hands for more than a year, and 6 percent said they would never do either again.

“The worst casualty of the epidemic,” said Eduardo Franco of McGill University in Montreal, is the “loss of human contact.”

Others lamented it less: “Always hated those particular needless exchanges of pathogens and unwanted touching,” said Carl V. Phillips, who runs Epiphi Consulting.

...One thing the epidemiologists seemed to agree on was that even when they return to normal activities, they will do them differently for a long time, like socializing with friends outside or attending worship services online. A majority said it would be more than a year before they stopped routinely wearing a mask outside their homes.

People often ask when things will return to normal, said T. Christopher Bond, an associate director at Bristol Myers Squibb. “At first I told them: ‘The world has changed and will be different for a long time. This is the crisis of our lifetime and we need to embrace it,’” he said. “But that depressed them. So now I say, ‘Well, we know more every day.’”