How Big Will The Anti-Trump Wave Be In November? Very Big

Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal's Andrew Restuccia reported that the Trump regime was taking whatever focus they once had on the pandemic, in other directions. "The White House coronavirus task force," he wrote, "is meeting less frequently, the government’s top infectious disease expert is getting little face time with President Trump, and the administration’s virus-testing coordinator is returning to his previous job. U.S. coronavirus deaths have surpassed 100,000 112,000 and health experts say the pandemic remains a serious concern, but Mr. Trump and his advisers have made a strategic decision to shift focus, according to administration officials and others familiar with the matter. The move predates the nationwide protests following the killing of a black man in Minneapolis police custody, which have captured the attention of both the American public and the White House-- and brought tens of thousands out of lockdown. The president and his aides have turned to issues they believe will animate the president’s conservative base ahead of the election while projecting confidence that the country is recovering economically." Yeah... like lying about unemployment numbers and job creation promises.

Over the weekend-- Friday thru Sunday-- the U.S. added over 67,000 new cases of coronavirus (25,393 + 22,836 +) and another 2,500 deaths (975 + 706 +). In terms of morbidity, U.S. deaths (112,096) exceed the combined deaths of the next three hardest hot countries the U.K. (40,465), Brazil (35,957) and Italy (33,846). And even as early states like New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Michigan, Louisiana, Delaware and Washington have gotten the pandemic under control (basically by ignoring Trump), the pandemic is raging even harder now than ever in California, Texas, North Carolina, Florida, Nebraska, Iowa, Arizona, Virginia, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Mississippi, Indiana, Georgia, South Dakota and Utah. This is anything but a time to take focus away from it.

Sunday Mark Murray reported for the Meet the Press crew that the new poll for NBC News and the Wall Street Journal that 8 out of 10 voters believe that things are out of control in the U.S., with majorities still concerned about the spread of the coronavirus, pessimistic about the economy returning to normal before next year and down on Señor Trumpanzee's ability to unite the nation. Voters don't seem thrilled with Trump's chaotic, dysfunctional style any longer. Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research told Murray that "Out of Control" summa up what voters are thinking about America today. "[It’s] one of the few things Americans can agree upon, and the one finding that we can definitively state given the tumult and torment of the past 12 days... Against Biden, going back to last July, here are Trump’s numbers-- 42 percent, 41 percent, 44 percent, 44 percent, 43 percent, 42 percent, and again 42 percent. The 45th president has yet to get to 45 percent, let alone closer than a 6-point deficit against the former vice president."

Asked to compare Biden with Trump, significant numbers of people found Biden to be more competent and effective (47 to 38%), better able to deal with the pandemic (48 to 37%), dealing with health care (49 to 34%) and having the ability to bring the country together (51 to 26%).

Among voters living in the top 2020 battleground states-- Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin-- Biden’s combined lead over Trump is 8 points, 50 percent to 42 percent.

...Democrats hold an 11-point advantage on congressional preference, with 51 percent of all voters preferring Democrats in control of Congress, compared with 40 percent who want Republicans in charge.

Democrats held a 6-point advantage on this question in January.

That kind of advantage indicates the anti-red wave I've been predicting for November. It means that Democratic candidates are likely to be swept into office, not just in swing districts, like in NY-24 and TX-23 but in redder districts where independent voters are abandoning the Republicans in droves. I spoke with 2018 candidates who are running again this year, Lisa Ring in Georgia and Julie Oliver is Texas, each of whom is running in exactly that kind of district-- with a PVIs of R+11... so districts which would never even be considered a battle ground by the DCCC but where each held Trumpist incumbents to closer calls where gaps look more closable now. Julie told me that she's "been all over Texas-- and ultimately people understand that Roger Williams is an out-of-touch wealthy elite who is only in Congress to reward himself. And he has totally abased himself to Donald Trump-- a historically corrupt racist who pits Americans against one another solely to enrich himself & his family. But it's not enough for us to just not be 'not Trump.' That bar couldn't be any lower-- and I think Texans realize that the fight for economic justice means we're actively engaged in policy that stops working for giant corporations and starts building a Texas that works for working people."

Lisa Ring told me that progressives like herself "been underestimated for too long now, but while some folks were distracted, others remained focused on the bigger picture. I have been working in this highly 'red' district for 7 years now. I am not alone and our district has shown itself to be not so conservative on the issues and when it comes to the integrity of candidates. For years, we have been organizing the 17 counties (most of them rural) of this district and speaking to all people, not just Democrats. We are providing leadership and solutions in an area historically controlled by the Georgia good ol' boys. This election we have everything on our side as the incompetence of our current administration and their self-serving agenda are opening people's eyes. Average people are disgusted with how little compassion is shown for black lives, and as Trump's leadership would have it, brown lives, aging lives, young lives, any lives not wealthy and in power. Our mission is to keep the pressure on and the truth at the forefront. Trump only advances through lies and manipulation. We must not let his false narratives paint a deceptively rosy picture of lower unemployment rates, fewer COVID-19 deaths, an economy moving toward stability, and leadership that cares about the wellbeing of our citizens. We must support one another and the growing number of political, military, and community leaders denouncing Trump and insisting on a new direction for this nation. And most important, we must remember that Trump did not rise to power alone. Congressmen, senators, governors, and local governments were complicit. Now is the time to stand up together to throw them out and replace them with intelligent,  compassionate leaders. Our nation must, and will do better."