If Americans Don't Pull Together To Fight The Pandemic, Millions Will Die

This-- above-- was an anti-lockdown protest by right-wing haters/idiots in Suffolk County a few days ago, where there have been 42,050 confirmed cases (4th worst county in New York State) and 1,709 deaths. I know these people. I grew up among them. Believe me, there are no Einsteins in this crowd. In 2016, New York went for Hillary 58.8% to 37.5%. Suffolk County was a very different story. Trump won 328,403 (52.5%) to 276,953 (44.3%). Listen to those ugly voices; that's not Alabama; that's eastern Long Island. They don't get it yet; no idea what a pandemic is.

Over the weekend, the U.S. will pass the 90,000 pandemic death mark. Most people don't personally know anyone who has died. Only about 2,000 people a day are dying. As of Friday morning there were just 263 deaths per million people in the U.S. population. Other countries have been hit much worse:

• Belgium- 773 per million
• Spain- 587 per million
• Italy- 519 per million
• U.K.- 495 per million
• France- 420 per million

But the whole world has just experienced a little over 300,000 deaths. Americans don't really see it as that big a deal, at least not yet. And especially not in places like Suffolk County. Their neighbors, parents, spouses and children have to start dying-- and probably in large numbers-- before it penetrates their thick, thick skulls that this pandemic isn't some TV reality show with a happy ending. I wouldn't care if they all die-- in fact-- the gene pool would be better off without them-- but they seem to insist on dragging the rest of us down with them. Otherwise they'd all just be drinking bleach like their idol suggested they do.

Yesterday Wall Street Journal reporter Harriet Torry wrote that the coronavirus lockdowns have triggered record drop in retail sales. Does that surprise you? It shouldn't. Sales, output, taxes are all down, down, down. None of this should surprise anyone who's been awake:

Retail spending fell a record 16.4% in April from March, the Commerce Department reported. And in a separate report, the Federal Reserve said industrial production fell 11.2% in April, its steepest monthly fall on record, as the coronavirus response closed factories, sapped demand, froze supply chains.

The drop in U.S. retail sales, a measure of purchases at stores, gasoline stations, restaurants, bars and online, eclipsed a revised 8.3% drop in March sales, which was the steepest month-over-month decline in records dating to 1992.

Retail sales dropped in every major category in April except at nonstore retailers, a category that includes internet merchants such as Amazon.com Inc. Sales at nonstore retailers grew 8.4% month-over-month. Grocery stores saw a 13.2% decline in sales, while receipts at bars and restaurants were down 29.5% from the prior month.

Sales were weak across a range of categories, but nonessential businesses were particularly hard hit. Sales at furniture stores dropped 58.7% and electronics fell 60.6%. Clothing sales plummeted 78.8% from March. Social distancing, business closures, travel restrictions and other disruptions that started in mid-March have taken a particularly heavy toll on retail stores and restaurants, many of which remain closed or are opening gradually as states begin to reopen their economies.

“April is the ugliest month of data that we’re going to get,” said Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors. “This is giving us an indication of how much we have to do just to get back to where we were.”

Consumer spending is the main driver of the U.S. economy, accounting for more than two-thirds of economic output, and retail sales account for about a quarter of all consumer spending. In March, when widespread closures started midway through the month, spending on clothing, electronics, sporting goods, furniture and motor vehicles all fell by double digits.

Workers also are losing jobs in record numbers because of the coronavirus pandemic, another factor hitting consumer spending. And declining consumer sentiment has economists worried about how quickly people will return to spending, as the economy opens back up.

...Some retailers are also unlikely to weather the pandemic and face permanent closures.

That falloff in sales and productivity is going to lead to fiscal catastrophes up and down the economic chain. NY Times reporter Mary Walsh explained it yesterday so that even their Suffolk County readers might have a shot at understanding it. No sales = no tax revenues = cuts in state budgets. "In February," she wrote, "Ohio was running a $200 million budget surplus. Then the coronavirus pandemic struck, wiping out the surplus-- and then some. Tax revenue plummeted and public health expenses skyrocketed. By the end of April, there was a $777 million hole, a nearly $1 billion swing in two months. Gov. Mike DeWine ordered immediate budget cuts to close the gap, and he had little choice. The pandemic, he said, 'does not exempt us from balancing our budget, which we are legally obligated to do.' Ohio is hardly alone. Every state is grappling with a version of the same problem, and all but one-- Vermont-- have balanced-budget laws in place. And for most, the new fiscal year starts on July 1, leaving them just a few weeks to come up with a plan and desperate for help."

Three Dollar Bill by Nancy Ohanian

State and local governments need a bailout-- urgently. Otherwise they will be forced to stop funding healthcare programs and start laying off teachers and police. Republican ideologues are salivating at the prospect. Walsh wrote that some Republicans-- including President Psychopath-- "have suggested that Democrat-controlled states are seeking a bailout for poor and costly decisions that predate the pandemic, particularly their enormous unfunded pension obligations. Miss McConnell has suggested the blue states declare bankruptcy.

Stay-at-home orders and frozen economic activity have slashed state sales- and income-tax revenue, while at the same time, costs are going up. Services that are going largely unused, like airports and public transit, must be maintained; while spending has increased on medical equipment, screening programs, hospitals, nursing homes and countless newly unemployed people who need Medicaid.

States and large cities can tap a new Federal Reserve lending program set up in response to the coronavirus crisis. For the first time, the Fed will buy debt from, or lend to, states and cities. The central bank issued rules and pricing guidelines on Monday, suggesting the program will be open for business this month. Because the program is considered a backstop, it will charge higher interest rates to most borrowers, so not to outbid regular investors.

This isn't going away; it's going to get much worse-- much, much worse. A lack of competent leadership guarantees that. The Lancet is the world's premier-- and oldest-- weekly medical journal. It has been criticized for having taken a political stand several times in recent decades, including yesterday when it criticized the Trump regime for a inconsistent and incoherent national response to the pandemic. In an editorial, The Lancet noted that "The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the flagship agency for the nation's public health, has seen its role minimised and become an ineffective and nominal adviser in the response to contain the spread of the virus... Regarded as the gold standard for global disease detection and control," the CDC has been been reviled by anti-science Republicans eager to defund it.

The Trump administration further chipped away at the CDC's capacity to combat infectious diseases. CDC staff in China were cut back with the last remaining CDC officer recalled home from the China CDC in July, 2019, leaving an intelligence vacuum when COVID-19 began to emerge. In a press conference on Feb 25, Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, warned US citizens to prepare for major disruptions to movement and everyday life. Messonnier subsequently no longer appeared at White House briefings on COVID-19. More recently, the Trump administration has questioned guidelines that the CDC has provided. These actions have undermined the CDC's leadership and its work during the COVID-19 pandemic.

...The Trump administration's further erosion of the CDC will harm global cooperation in science and public health, as it is trying to do by defunding WHO. A strong CDC is needed to respond to public health threats, both domestic and international, and to help prevent the next inevitable pandemic. Americans must put a president in the White House come January, 2021, who will understand that public health should not be guided by partisan politics.