Will There Be A Democrat In Position To Beat DCCC/Republican Jefferson Van Drew?

In 2018, after trying and failing for years, the DCCC had what it wanted and celebrated as a great triumph. They successfully recruited the single worst Democrat-- as in most conservative and most GOP/NRA-friendly-- in the New Jersey legislature, Jeff Van Drew, to run for Congress. As soon as Republican incumbent Frank LoBiondo announced his retirement, Van Drew jumped in-- with the DCCC behind him.

With heavy DCCC backing, Van Drew managed to raise $1,881,731 for the 2018 election. His GOP opponent, Seth Grossman raised just $304,872. Outside groups spent over a million dollars on behalf of Van Drew, more than half coming from the conservative National Association of Realtors, which normally contributes to Republicans and very conservative Democrats. It was surprising that the under-funded Republican in the race, Seth Grossman kept it close and that Van Drew only beat him 136,685 (52.9%) to 116,866 (45.2%).

In Congress, Van Drew was the worst Dem in the House, consistent in his support for Trump and for GOP obstructionism. A radical Blue Dog, by December he did what Blue Dogs often to-- quit the Democratic Party. He joined the GOP in return for a promise from Trump to clear the field for him so that he would have no primary.

The same corrupt party machine-- run by George Norcross-- that picked Van Drew with the DCCC, immediate teamed up with Cheri Bustos to pick Brigid Harrison as the machine candidate. They gave her the endorsements of all their hacks-- the chairs of 5 of the 8 county Democratic Party committees, state Senate president Stephen Sweeney and Cory Booker, hoping to scare off any opposition. It didn't work. A Kennedy-- Amy, wife of former Congressman Patrick Kennedy-- jumped into the race and she was endorsed by the Communication Workers of America, by the Working Families Party and, the biggest and one of the bluest of the counties Democratic Party committee, Atlantic County. A progressive also decided to run again, Will Cunningham, an openly gay African-American attorney who grew up poor and, despite being homeless at one point as a teen, went to an Ivy League university and became an Obama administration official, and Cory Booker, had taken Van Drew on in the 2018 primary. Cunningham has been endorsed by environmental groups and DFA. He backs Medicare for All, a Green New Deal, campaign finance reform and other positions that separate progressives from garden variety status quo Democrats.

"The DCCC," Cunningham said in 2018, "needs to take a look at themselves in the mirror and make sure we’re reflective of who we’re sending to D.C. We as the Democratic Party, if we’re going to talk the talk, we’ve got to walk the walk."

A South Jersey friend of mine told me that "While Cunningham is a good guy and undoubtedly the most progressive, he has zero chance. Even in a normal year, NJ-02 is a hard district to push a grassroots movement because of how spread out it is, making door knocking very challenging. But, without retail politics possible before the primary, Cunningham has done nothing to show he ought to be taken seriously as a candidate (very little money-- $79,841, compared to $258,345 for Harrison and $807,580 for Kennedy-- volunteers, events, etc).

My same South Jersey friend also told me that Kennedy is "reasonably" progressive-- more so than her husband,--and has been endorsed by many of the progressive activists in the area. "Given that Cunningham has not made himself viable--sadly-- by falling into the trap of a lot of progressive candidates of believing their good ideas will bring people to the polls, Kennedy has got to be the choice to prevent a Norcross win, even if just for the symbolic value to show the outer edges of the empire aren't as well defended as people might think. She seems to have a real chance to win."

New Jersey has been hit hard by the pandemic, second only to New York. 145,490 residents have tested positive and over 10,000 have died. the caseload per million is 16,380-- worse than Spain, Italy, the U.K. and France combined. But NJ-02-- other than Ocean County-- has gotten off relatively easy. These are the 8 counties that make up the district in order of population. The number below is the number of cases in each county:

• Atlantic- 1,693
• Cape May- 508
• Cumberland- 1,488
• Glouster- 1,788
• Salem- 446
• Ocean- 7,829
• Camden- 5,442
• Burlington- 3,849

The anger towards Republicans in areas with worse pandemic experiences are not likely to be as strong in NJ-02... at least not so far. North Jersey seems to be seeing their numbers go down. We'll see what happens to the southern part of the state.