Will The Pandemic Kill Trump's Catastrophic Political Career?

Americans are rapidly waking up to the fact that the Trump regime has done an abysmal job in responding to the pandemic. Even rural counties-- largely red, largely Trumpist-- are starting to see upticks in infection. "Many communities that watched the pandemic unfold in far-away places are now experiencing the crisis first hand. More than two-thirds of rural counties have confirmed at least one case." By late March, for example, Blaine County, Idaho "had the highest per capita infection rate in the nation, rural or urban."

Last night, in a Wall Street Journal podcast, Dr. Fauci talked about coming out of the pandemic. One of his suggestions was that we abandon the handshaking custom-- something I've personally been trying to avoid since the 1960s. Dr. F: "I don’t think we should ever shake hands ever again, to be honest with you. Not only would it be good to prevent coronavirus disease, it probably would decrease instances of influenza dramatically in this country."

"The town of Cynthiana in rural Harrison County appeared to be the epicenter of the crisis in Kentucky." 96% white, Harrison County is a typically Trumpist hellhole. In 2016 just 26.1% of the voters cast their ballots for Hillary Clinton. Last cycle, the blue wave didn't touch Harrison County. Thomas Massie's support in the county was recorded at R+33. "The coronavirus has officially reached more than two-thirds of the country’s rural counties, with one in 10 reporting at least one death. Doctors and elected officials are warning that a late-arriving wave of illness could overwhelm rural communities that are older, poorer and sicker than much of the country, and already dangerously short on medical help... In some places, the virus has rushed in so suddenly that even leaders are falling ill. In the tiny county of Early in southwest Georgia, five people have died. And the mayor and the police chief of the county seat, Blakely, are among the county’s 92 confirmed cases. It has been a shock for the rural county of fewer than 11,000 people." In 2016, Early County residents went for Trump for president and for Republican Johnny Isakson for the Senate. The county also missed the 2018 blue wave. It strongly backed Republican Brian Kemp over Democrat Stacey Abrams for Senate.

Magnum is the county seat of Greer County in southwest Oklahoma. Greer County has 1,546 registered Democrats and 890 registered Republicans. Bernie trounced Hillary in 2016-- 55.8% to 27.6% and got far more voters than Trump did that day-- 332 to Trump's 111. But in November Greer County was Trump country-- 78.2% to 17.0%. "In Mangum, Oklahoma, a town of 6,000 in the western part of the state, it all started with a visit. A pastor from Tulsa appeared at a local church, but got sick shortly thereafter and became the state’s first Covid-19 fatality. Then somebody at the local church started to feel unwell-- a person who eventually tested positive for coronavirus... Before realizing they were infected, several people who eventually tested positive for the virus had moved about widely through the city, including to the local nursing home, which now has a cluster of cases... Magnum now has an emergency shelter-in-place order and curfew-- just like larger towns and cities around the United States."

It is hard to imagine counties like Greer voting for Status Quo Joe against Trump. They would absolutely vote for Bernie against Trump though. A CNN national poll released yesterday, found that "A majority of Americans -- 55% -- now say the federal government has done a poor job preventing the spread of coronavirus in the United States, up eight points in about a week... A majority, 52%, say they disapprove of the way Trump is handling the coronavirus outbreak, and 45% approve. Both figures have risen since early March, when 41% approved, 48% disapproved and 11% weren't sure how they felt about the President's handling of the viral outbreak. Still, just 43% say the President is doing everything he could to fight the outbreak, while 55% say he could be doing more-- including 17% among those who approve of his handling of it so far and 18% of Republicans."

Not Alive-- But Smarter Than A Republican by Chip Proser

Daniel McGraw, writing for the conservative #NeverTrump website, The Bulwark took a look at how the response to the pandemic is impacting the politics of Nevada, Michigan and Georgia. He wrote that it's too early to know for sure if voters will see Trump as "an inept bungler who made a deadly crisis worse."

Nevada, which has an economy heavily dependent on travel and tourism, has had more than 170,000 new unemployment claims in the past three weeks, which is about one-third of the number of employees statewide in the hospitality industry. In Georgia, the number of new unemployment claims jumped from about 12,000 (for the week ending March 21) to about 134,000 (for the week ending March 28).

As for Michigan, the state now reports the third-highest number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the country, chiefly because of Detroit, which is currently a hotspot. The state has seen close to 450,000 in new unemployment claims in the last three weeks, adding to its unemployment rolls at rates that far exceed even the hardest stretches of the Great Recession of a dozen years ago.

Plus, Michigan is still wedded to the automobile industry. Industry observers expect auto sales to drop a lot from “demand shock,” meaning sales of cars will be down because economic uncertainty will lead the public to delay large purchases. This will have a huge effect on the economy in a state that is home to some 1,600 automotive-related manufacturing companies.

According to a recent analysis from the Brookings Institution, jobs in the leisure and hospitality sector are among those most at risk during the coronavirus outbreak. Combined, the three large cities in these three states-- Las Vegas, Atlanta, and Detroit-- have about 1.1 million people employed in leisure and hospitality, making up fairly big percentages of the workforce in those cities: Las Vegas at 33.8 percent, Atlanta at 18.8 percent, and Detroit at 15.4 percent.

These cities will likely suffer greater economic downsizing than will most big cities in the rest of the country. The electoral consequences are not clear, however. Although economic downturns are generally not good for incumbents, no one knows whether the poorer individuals who lose their jobs will show up and vote in November. Nor can we guess how many of these individuals who lost their jobs will still be living in the same states come November.

The health research done by the University of Washington (reportedly used as a model for White House policy decisions) predicts that by then end of May, all three states will have several times as many deaths as they have now: Michigan is projected to have nearly 3,000 deaths, Georgia about 3,400, and Nevada about 900. The researchers also expect that all three states will experience shortages of hospital beds: Michigan is projected to be short about 910 ICU beds, Georgia about 740, and Nevada about 300. These figures are in flux, however, as just last week the predicted hospital bed shortages were much higher.

One more part of the COVID-19 crisis that might have an impact in the election: Recent data suggests that the coronavirus is disproportionately affecting African Americans in some places. For example, African Americans make up 14 percent of the population of Michigan but over 40 percent of the state’s COVID-19 deaths so far. This could affect the election-- not just in Michigan but also in Nevada and Georgia, other states with higher-than-the-national-average minority populations-- if it comes to be seen as a racial issue that drives urban-area voter turnout.

...Because the city’s convention center is being converted into a field hospital, the huge annual Detroit auto show has been canceled, and the more than 700,000 attendees won’t be dropping any coin in the Motor City in June.

Meanwhile, Trump has been playing an odd game with Michigan citizens. In late March, he attacked GM CEO Mary Barra over how the company will be making ventilators and surgical masks at its plants. GM said it was waiting on directions from FEMA, and Trump said the company was been dragging its feet.

“Why is the president only attacking us? What are other automakers doing? Who else has a plant ready to go? Strange he is attacking us,” said a GM insider quoted anonymously in the Detroit Free Press. “We are, by far, ahead of anyone else. [Trump] is a master of diverting blame to others. We are not dragging our feet. And we are not negotiating with the government.”

But Trump’s insults to Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer go beyond his usual craziness. When Whitmer, a Democrat who won the 2018 governor’s race by more than 400,000 votes, began asking the feds for more masks, ventilators, test kits, and other aid, Trump insulted her at press conferences and on Twitter:

This set off a firestorm in the state. Longtime Detroit columnist Mitch Albom closed his scathing March 29 Free Press column this way:

We don’t need presidential name-calling. We don’t need disrespect. We don’t need the most powerful person in the nation, whom we helped elect to his job, refusing to return our governor’s calls and acting like a pouting child waiting to be asked nicely before he shares his toys.

Now is not the time to be a child, Mr. President. Now is the time to put away childish things. To be a man. You can begin by respecting a woman. Her name is Gretchen Whitmer. She is our governor. And like her or not, she represents us to you. She counts. We count. Please, at least act like you understand that.

Trump’s behavior toward Michigan is strange enough that it makes you wonder whether he fully understands that he needs to win the state to secure a second term.

In 2016, Trump narrowly bested Hillary in Michigan-- 2,279,543 (47.50%) to 2,268,839 (47.27%). Two year later, former state Senator Gretchen Whitmer beat Republican Attorney General Bill Schuette 2,266,193 (53.3%) to 1,859,534 (43.8%). Even Trump should be able to figure out what had happened to the GOP brand since he took the White House. Schuette was endorsed by Trump and Pence, while Whitmer was backed by Obama, Bernie, Biden and Hillary. Whitmer raised just over $7 million and Schuette raised a bit over $6 million. Democrats swept the state and also managed to win Schuette's old job as Attorney General and win the Secretary of State open job. The Morning Consult Trump tracker shows that by the end of December-- so pre-pandemic-- Trump's approval rating in Michigan had decreased by 18 points. In December his jon approval was 43%-- and his disapproval was 53%. His dreadful pandemic response and his vicious and misogynistic attacks on Gov. Whitmer is not going to help raise those numbers.

UPDATE: No Confidence

A SurveyUSA poll released this morning, is even worse for Trump and his Republican enablers. In summation, the pollster wrote that "After 3 weeks of listening to America's cheerleader-in-chief rant and ramble, the number of Americans who strongly disapprove of the way in which President Donald J. Trump is handling the COVID-19 Coronavirus crisis has jumped from 25% on 03/20/20 to 38% today... 3 weeks ago, Trump's Net Virus Approval was Plus 11. Then it dropped 2 weeks ago to Plus 9. Today it drops into negative territory for the 1st time: Minus 2 (48% approve, 50% disapprove), the lowest net score since SurveyUSA began tracking 03/13/20. America's growing impatience with the President is in stark contrast to how the nation views straight-shooters such as Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. Fauci's handling of the virus is today at Plus 59, up from Plus 51 2 weeks ago."

While Democratic governors Andrew Cuomo (+39) and Gavin Newsom (+36) are both also way into positive territory-- although the greasy Cuomo is beginning to slip-- Trump ally Ron DeSantis (FL) is underwater for his pandemic response (minus 5).

Extraordinarily in a time of crisis, Americans are split over whether to pay any attention to the so-called Leader of the Free World. 42% of Americans today say it's best to ignore Trump when he opens his mouth about the virus; another 42% say they listen when the President speaks. This is a 14-point turn for the worse over the past 2 weeks: then, 49% said it was better to listen, 35% said it was better to ignore. There is a 21-point gender gap on this question.

When all is said and done, 48% today say they have no confidence in President Trump's ability to lead the nation through these trying times; 43% say they do have confidence. This is another 14-point turn for the worse from 2 weeks ago, when 50% had confidence and 41% did not.