Worried Trump May Win A Second Term? Unless Putin Steals The Election For Him Again, He Won't

The conservative lane narrows

Last week Kamala Harris shut down her campaign in New Hampshire. Monday night, Julián Castro announced that he is closing his operations in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Shame about Castro, who actually added something worthwhile to the debate, unlike Harris who was never anything but a package of junk identity politics with nothing to offer whatsoever and doesn't even deserve to represent California in the Senate, let alone win the Democratic nomination for president. She wasn't even capable of fulfilling the one useful function she could have had in this primary season-- using that fake southern accent she puts on to win some votes away from Biden in South Carolina. Last month's Gravis Marketing poll of likely South Carolina Democratic primary voters-- a majority of whom are African-American-- was bad news for Harris... and bad news for anyone who doesn't want a repeat of the Clinton scenario that led to Trump-in-the-Oval-Office:

• Status Quo Joe- 34%
• Bernie- 10%
• Elizabeth- 9%
• Steyer- 7%
• Booker- 6%
• Kamala- 4%

At least Mayo Pete didn't make it onto the list. His campaign has spread an ugly whispering campaign among the media that he's doing badly in South Carolina because blacks are prejudiced against gays, rather than a more likely explanation-- that blacks are aware of his racism as mayor of the small town he's from.




I hate to cite a Siena poll, since their polling is so flawed but their Iowa caucus poll for the NY Times contains the most up-to-date information available. If Kamala and Julián are putting all their eggs in the Iowa basket, they should be gone from the primary stage very fast. The news for Mayo Pete, however, was better in this 91% white state:

• Elizabeth- 22%
• Bernie- 19%
• Mayo- 18%
• Status Quo- 17%
• Klobuchar- 4%
• Kamala- 3%
• Yang- 3%
• Steyer- 2%
• Tulsi- 2%
• Booker- 2%

Funny how the Times headline was about Mr. Mayonnaise, not about how the two progressive candidates were so far ahead of the two conservative, anti-healthcare candidates (41% to 35%). Mr. Mayonnaise's critics," reported The Times, "say he is offering voters feel-good platitudes without a proven track record of electoral success. But his supporters say his vision, and his identity as an openly gay candidate, make him an inherently transformative figure. He has successfully built a sustainable ground game throughout the state, generating buzz among voters and turning out crowds of several hundred people in towns of just a few thousand. For growing numbers of likely caucus-goers, he is emerging as the moderate [The Times consistently uses the word "moderate" to make conservative Democrats sound more palatable] front-runner in the race," ahead of even former Obama-substitute, Status Quo Joe, the Hillary Clinton of the 2020 cycle, then man who could guarantee a second term for Trump.

All that said, the chief pollster for ABC News and the Washington Post, Gary Langer, noted that momentum for the Democratic candidates and against Trump has been growing steadily. "A year before the nation votes," he wrote, "top Democratic contenders have extended their leads over President Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential race, with broad public concerns about the president’s leadership in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll. While former Vice President Joe Biden now leads Trump by 17 percentage points, other Democratic contenders show the most improvement: Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ advantage vs. Trump has gone from a non-significant 6 points in July to 12 in September to 17 now. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s has gone from 7 to 11 to 15."

Impeachment is not the only factor, since the trend dates to early September. Among Trump’s broader challenges, six in 10 Americans or more say he’s not honest and trustworthy, lacks the kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively and doesn’t understand their problems. Slightly smaller majorities doubt his deal-making, delivery of “needed change” to Washington and leadership generally.

Further, as reported last week, half support Trump’s impeachment and removal from office, 54% say his policies have made the United States less respected globally, 58% disapprove of his overall job performance and 66% say he’s acted unpresidentially since taking office. He’s the first president in modern polling never to have achieved majority approval, with the lowest average approval rating on record.

...16% of leaned Republicans say they’d defect to Biden. Trump’s approval rating within his own party has dropped by 13 points since early July to a new low. And 30% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they’d like to see the party nominate someone else as its 2020 presidential candidate.

...Leading Democrats currently have the upper hand. Among the party’s three frontrunners, Biden and Sanders lead Trump by an identical 56-39%, as does Warren, by 54-39%. South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg and California Sen. Kamala Harris both hold 11-point leads.

Those results are among all adults, given that there’s plenty of time to register. Among currently registered voters, the outcomes are very similar-- Biden ahead by an identical 17 points, Warren still by 15, Sanders by 14, Buttigieg still by 11 and Harris by 9. The results look different than at about this time in 2015. In an ABC/Post poll that September, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton led Trump by 12 points in a matchup among all adults, 51-39%, but it was essentially a dead heat, 46-43%, among registered voters.

Trump’s support today is strikingly similar in all these matchups, 39% to 42%. His task is to build from there, either in support levels or higher turnout.

Results have improved for the Democrats, especially among registered voters. Warren ran evenly with Trump among registered voters in July, then moved to a slight +7 points in this group in September and on to +15 points now. Sanders went from +1 to +9 to +14 points among registered voters in this same period; Buttigieg, from a dead heat to +4 to +11. Biden was +10 among registered voters in July; he’s +17 now.

...Movement also has occurred among independents, who can be key swing voters in presidential elections. Sanders has improved vs. Trump by 17 points among independents since July and Warren by 14 points. (A challenge in this result is that independents, given their lack of partisan motivation, are less apt than party adherents to vote.)

Most of the change among independents has occurred among women-- especially for Warren, who’s doubled her advantage over Trump among independent women from 18 points in July to 37 points now. That compares with 9-point gains among independent women for Biden and Sanders alike.

Another question is whether these pairings would be unpalatable enough for some potential voters to skip the election entirely. Not many say they’d take a bye: Given a Trump-Biden, Trump-Sanders or Trump-Warren matchup, 10% to 14% say there’s at least some chance they might skip the election, with 6% to 9% saying there’s a good chance of it.

Independents, nonwhites and younger adults are most apt to say they’d skip the election given those matchups-- three groups that are less likely to turn out in any case. Nonetheless, removing potential skippers from vote preference estimates doesn’t meaningfully change the standings of the Democratic candidates vs. Trump.

Aaron Blake wrote in the Washington Post early yesterday that as far as electability, the poll's biggest takeaway "may be that there doesn’t seem to be much difference in whom the Democrats nominate. As Democrats anxious to 'just win baby' confront some tough choices in the months ahead, there are indications that the differences between the candidates matter less and less to the final result." In other words, any of the Democrats, at least by the numbers, will beat Trump. Here's an entirely unscientific poll we ran on Twitter yesterday along these lines: