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Friday, November 01, 2019

Will Independent Voters Determine Which Party Controls The Senate Starting In 2021?


No matter what the result of the impeachment battle is, next year, Republicans and Democrats are going to do what Republicans and Democrats do-- Republicans voters are going to vote for Republican candidates and Democrats are going to vote for Democratic candidates. In states with overwhelming numbers of Republican voters or Democratic voters, we already know the results of the elections. Take Wyoming, a state with an R+25 PVI, the reddest state in the country. Democrats don't get elected there without some kind of politically seismic event. There are 263,337 registered voters. This is how they identified themselves:
• Republicans: 176,307 (66.95%)
• Democrats: 46,979 (17.84%)
• Unaffiliated: 36,688 (13.93%)
There is no incentive for Wyoming Republicans to move away from a base strategy. They don't need independent voters-- let along Democratic voters. That's how we wind up with extremists like Liz Cheney (who represents an at-large district, same as a senator).

 Among the states where voters register by party-- and many don't-- these are the ones with the huge independent voters that swing and determine elections:
• Alaska
Independents- 55.25%
Republicans- 25.77%
Democrats- 13.82%
• Massachusetts
Independents- 54.05%
Democrats- 34.03%
Republicans- 10.68%
• Rhode Island
Independents- 48.4%
Democrats- 39.4%
Republicans- 11.8%
• New Hampshire
Independents- 41.55%
Republicans- 30.62%
Democrats- 27.81%
• Connecticut
Independents- 41.26%
Democrats- 36.60%
Republicans- 20.76%
• New Jersey
Independents- 40.99%
Democrats- 36.87%
Republicans- 21.47%
• Colorado
Independents- 38.36%
Democrats- 30.25%
Republicans- 29.49%
• Iowa
Independents- 36.05%
Republicans- 31.90%
Democrats- 31.33%
• Maine
Independents- 34.95%
Democrats- 32.97%
Republicans- 27.37%
So that makes 4 red hot Senate races that will be determined by independent voters next year: Colorado (Gardner), Maine (Collins), Iowa (Ernst) and Alaska (Sullivan). If the Democratic candidates in these 4 states are successful in tying the Republican incumbents to Trump, they should each win, flipping the Senate and banishing Moscow Mitch from the chamber's leadership role.
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2 comments:

  1. Anonymous7:12 PM

    I have heard the opinion expressed that the independents would serve this role, provided the parties give them someone to vote for. Considering how the rosters of each party are full of choices that most people wouldn't pick, there is no guarantee that anyone will rouse the rabble to come out to vote.

    I'm sure that's part of the plan, because as Paul Wyerich once declared to a GOP convention, "I don't want everybody to vote."

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  2. Anonymous10:28 PM

    You can assume with a pretty high degree of certainty that everyone that voted for Caligula in '16 will do so again.

    You can also assume with a pretty high degree of certainty that when (not if) the DNC rigs the nom so that neither Bernie nor Elizabeth is their nom, that no more than voted for $hillbillary will vote for the democrap in 2020.

    The "existential threat" and "the most important election in our lifetimes" will only inspire about the same amount of fear as in 2016. But the DNC's repeat of ratfucking Bernie and their insistence on promoting a corrupt neoliberal fascist pos shall suppress their own turnout all down the line.

    If you accept that the democrap party members will vote for whatever pos democrap is foisted upon us, then it will be the independents who stay home in disgust that could, indeed, dictate which party has the senate.

    Factor in the existing democrap minority and the reality of the electoral map for this cycle... and you have to conclude that the Nazis will keep the senate.

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