Georgia May Have An Important 2020 Electoral Role-- California Too

Hole-in-One by Nancy Ohanian

A new poll from the Atlanta Journal Constitution, by the University of Georgia's School of Public and International Affairs Survey Research Center, conducted between Oct. 30 and Nov. 8-- so before the devastating public impeachment hearings began-- has absolutely devastating news for Trump and his congressional enablers. We normally turn to the Morning Consult state by state Trump Tracker to see where Trump's job approval stands. The most current read there shows Trump's job approval at minus 3, quite a fall from Georgia's previous support. In fact, since Trump's inauguration, his job approval has fallen 21 points among Georgia voters. The more current Journal Constitution findings are much worse. The new data of registered voters:

• Strongly approve- 29%
• Somewhat approve- 15%
• Somewhat disapprove- 7%
• Strongly disapprove- 46%

That's a minus 9%, which should be frightening for Trump's campaign-- and alarming for David Perdue's Senate reelection campaign and for Republican candidates in districts where winning campaigns are determined by independents, rather than by overwhelming Democratic or Republican turnouts. Republican-held GA-07 (Gwinnett and Forsyth counties) and possibly GA-10 (primarily Walton, Clarke, Gwinnett and Barrow counties), GA-11 (primarily Cobb and Cherokee counties) and GA-12 (primarily Richmond, Columbia and Bulloch counties).

Asked who they would vote for the the Senate race in which Perdue is seeking reelection, 35% said they plan to vote for Perdue, 21% said they would vote for any Democrat and 40% said it will depend on which Democrat wins the nomination. The strongest candidate among the Democrats is clearly former Columbus mayor Teresa Tomlinson and today we asked her how she was looking at this new polling. "61% of Georgia voters," she pointed out, "say they will consider voting for a Democratic candidate over David Perdue. I’m that candidate. If the Democrats nominate a formidable woman who is a proud progressive and can carry Atlanta, and also someone who has name recognition and a reputation for good government in Central and South Georgia, David Perdue cannot win this race." She's right.

Most Georgian voters-- by a margin of 53 to 44%-- approve of the impeachment inquiry. 46% are ready to see him impeached and removed already! In Georgia!

The pollsters also asked voters who they would support in match-ups between Trump and the leading Democratic presidential primary contenders. That went poorly for Trump:

• Status Quo Joe- 51%, Trump- 42%
• Bernie- 47%, Trump- 43%
• Elizabeth- 47%, Trump- 43%
• Mayo Pete- 45%, Trump- 43%
• Kamala- 44%, Trump- 43%

That 43% roof for Trump looks harsh, especially for a state where the PVI is R+5 and where Trump beat Hillary in 2016 by 5 points-- 2,089,104 (50.44%) to 1,877,963 (45.35%).

How about if we take a little look at California too, since a new poll of that state's registered voters was just released too, Capitol Weekly's November tracking poll-- in terms of momentum, great news for Bernie and Mayo Pete, not good news for Elizabeth Warren and Status Quo Joe:

• Elizabeth- 27 (down 9 points)
• Bernie- 21% (up 5 points)
• Status Quo Joe- 18% (down 3 points)
• Mayo Pete- 14% (up 8 points)
• Kamala- 6% (down 2%)
• Yang- 4% (steady)
• Klobuchar- 3% (up 2 points)
• Tulsi- 3% (up 1 point)
• Steyer- 1%

Conservative shills Michael Bloomberg and Deval Patrick weren't part of the poll. Kamala should pull out now and go back to work before she irreparably damages herself politically. And by the way, Trump's job approval in California is minus 32, which is 26 points down since he was inaugurated. And one last thing: really nice new Elizabeth Warren ad just started running. I hope it runs nationally and not just in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. Everyone needs to see this: