As Bob Dylan Could Have Said About The Status Quo Joe Campaign, "He Not Busy Being Born Is Busy Dying"

I left the U.S. in 1969. The idea of Nixon being the president was too much for my 20 year old sensibilities. I traveled the world and eventually wound up living in Amsterdam. While I was in Afghanistan my sensibilities were further assaulted while a northern Democrat, Louise Day Hicks-- from Boston no less-- ran on a racist platform and was elected to Congress. She only remained for two years before being defeated by a non-racist Democrat. (Ten years later I felt as mortified when a Jewish woman, Bobbi Fielder, in the San Fernando Valley-- that's part of Los Angeles-- ran on a similarly racist platform and was also elected to Congress. At least she was a Republican, but a Jew?? She served 3 terms and just died, age 81, last March.

1969-- moi

Around the same time Hicks was making a spectacle of herself in Boston, Joe Biden was dipping a toe into politics himself. He admits that back them he "thought of myself as a Republican." The Delaware GOP tried recruiting him to run for office but he was hesitant because didn't like Nixon. Because of that antipathy for Nixon, he registered as an Independent. After he went to work for a local Democrat, Sid Balick, he switched his registration to Democrat and soon after began running for office, appealing to white resentment of black people.

Earlier this week, Benjamin Hart and Olivia Nuzzi asked at New York Magazine, Why Do Joe Biden’s Supporters Like Joe Biden? Good question; I've hated him since he first started serving in Congress as a racist and conservative.

Hart mentioned to Nuzzi that her cover story on Biden asserts that he has "a personal and deep a connection" with his fans, "especially those who have experienced personal tragedy, which the former vice-president is, sadly, well versed in. For months, pundits have speculated Biden was on the brink of collapsing in the polls, and this has continued not to happen. His connection to President Obama is often cited as a reason for his staying power. Does that underrate his actual skills as a retail politician?"

She told him she thinks "there’s a lot of denial about the reality of the Democratic electorate, which is more moderate and older than the loudest voices on Twitter. And those loud voices have extraordinary influence over our thinking in the media and over the tone of the coverage. And some of those voices are members of the media themselves. And what you don’t really have is much patience for or room for voices from people who look and sound like Biden’s voters in this space. So I think maybe it’s hard to keep things in perspective."

Ben: But do you think there’s more to the connection between Biden and his voters than “he’s moderate” and “he was Obama’s vice-president”? There’s a notion that the people who like him just do so out of a kind of default setting, not because they actually feel that fondly toward him.

Olivia: It’s hard to say. When you see people share emotional stories with him or hug him or stare into his eyes-- that doesn’t seem like they’re doing it because they’re so jazzed to be in the presence of someone they think is “electable.” At the same time, I think people get excited to meet a celebrity. They also get excited to meet somebody close to Barack Obama.

Ben: There’s also a fairly widespread notion that if Biden had run four years ago, he would have had a good chance to win the primary and then would have wiped the floor with Trump. He is certainly showing his age more in several ways now, but, as you write, it’s not as if his previous presidential campaigns in 1988 and 2004 were great successes. There was a reason Obama preferred him not to run in 2016, after all. Do you think his decline has been that precipitous, or is it just slightly exacerbating stuff that was already there?

Olivia: The latter, I think. I’d also note that his stated public reason for not pursuing the nomination last time around was because he had just lost his son Beau to brain cancer.

Ben: You write of Biden’s team: “For many of these staffers, the campaign feels like it should be a coronation. Joe Biden 2020 isn’t a labor of love or ideology. It’s about the proper order of things. It’s about who’s entitled to what.” I saw at least one Biden ally pushing back on this idea. Are there no senior advisers who genuinely think Biden’s policy vision would be the best for the country moving forward? Or is that just a kind of afterthought?

Olivia: I wouldn’t say there are none. It’s not as though every single senior member of the Biden campaign anonymously spilled their guts to me (though I would love that. Call me!) But certainly, my reporting suggests that the prevailing attitude is what I wrote in the story. And of course, I don’t expect any Biden allies will be publicly confirming the negative aspects of my reporting.

Ben: Indeed.

Biden’s initial response to the Ukraine scandal involving his son was a bit halting, not least because he really likes to keep his family separate from politics. But if he wins the nomination, he’ll have to deal with the full fury of Trump and his allies every day. Did you get the sense from your glimpse at the campaign that it’s equipped and ready to handle that kind of thing?

Olivia: So there’s this scene in the story where we’re in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and Biden is giving a speech about climate change (under the beating sun in the middle of an 85 degree day. I’m still mad about it). And that was the day after the news of the whistle-blower leaked. So after the event ends, all the press assembles by the door to the building Biden had retreated into, as we normally do, to wait for him to come out so we can ask him questions. And we waited for, I think, an hour and a half, so long that a campaign aide brought out a tray of little cups filled with water so we wouldn’t die. And I’m standing there thinking, Surely, he’s looking forward to stepping out here and going off on Trump. I mean, why wouldn’t he?!

But then he comes out, barges past the press, and steps into his waiting car. That’s not in itself an uncommon occurrence, for Biden or any other candidate to ignore the press, of course. But at that moment, I couldn’t understand the delay in reacting to what seemed like a story that ultimately broke in his favor. What I’ve learned is that Biden is terribly cautious-- as funny as that may seem given his reckless speaking style and debate style. And he waits a long time to make any decision. And he is not a very sure person; not these days, anyway, with so much hanging on by a thread. So that’s why you don’t get him calling for impeachment until like three weeks later in New Hampshire at the last second, because he’s never sure quite what to do.

Ben: Sometimes, that really comes off as a strength, as when other candidates immediately line up to take a position that may not be so well-thought-out, and he doesn’t jump into the fray.

Olivia: Totally. But I think it also contributes to the feeling that he’s a little out of it-- not quite sharp, not agile.

The new CNN poll that came out yesterday shows Bernie winning the first primary-- in New Hampshire-- among likely Democratic primary voters. And it shows Biden in third place with negative momentum, battling with Mayo Pete for the conservative lane in the Democratic Party:

• Bernie- 21%
• Elizabeth- 18%
• Status Quo Joe- 15%
• Mayo Pete- 10%
• Yang- 5%
• Amy Klobuchar- 5%
• Tulsi- 5%
• Steyer- 3%
• Kamala- 3%

Biden had a 9% drop since July, the biggest movement in either direction for any candidate. People are getting to know him as someone who is more  (less?) than just Obama's vice-president and a guy who lost family members and experienced tragedy in his life. (Kamala Harris is also losing ground rapidly). Tulsi jumped from 1% to 5%, likely because of her very strong anti-Hillary remarks. Here are some other results from the polling:

• Favorability/Unfavorable

Bernie- 66% favorable to 23% unfavorable
Elizabeth- 63% to 25%
Biden- 55% to 30%
Mayo Pete- 55% to 15%

• Asked who they would NOT consider voting for under any circumstance:

Status Quo Joe- 11%
Elizabeth- 11%
Marianne Williamson- 9%
Bernie- 7%
Tulsi- 5%

• Most likeable:

Bernie- 27%
Status Quo Joe- 20%
Mayo Pete- 14%
Elizabeth- 10%

• Most progressive:

Bernie- 47%
Elizabeth- 18%
Yang- 6%
Status Quo Joe 5%
Mayo Pete- 4%

• Best able to handle healthcare:

Bernie- 33%
Elizabeth- 17%
Status Quo Joe- 15%
Mayo Pete- 7%

• Best able to handle the Climate Crisis:

Bernie- 30%
Elizabeth- 15%
Status Quo Joe- 9%
Mayo Pete- 4%

• Best able to handle gun policies:

Bernie- 14%
Elizabeth- 14%
Status Quo Joe- 12%
Beto- 8%
Mayo Pete- 6%

Yesterday Tyler Pager reported at Bloomberg News that Biden is in danger of a humiliating loss in Iowa, coming in either 3rd or 4th, primarily because of "a poorly organized operation that has failed to engage with voters and party leaders. With fewer than 100 days until the Feb. 3 caucuses, Biden is failing to spend the time with small groups of voters and party officials that Iowans expect and his campaign’s outreach has been largely ineffective, according to 11 senior Democrats in the state. They worry that could send Biden to a crippling loss behind Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg, who have highly organized campaigns in Iowa, said the Democrats." [Bloomberg, a multibillionaire, frowns on mentioning Bernie in his company's communications.]

The Iowa caucus is not really pollable in any reliable way, but what we do know is that in the 2016 caucuses, Bernie and Hillary were essentially tied. The most recent Iowa poll-- this one by Civiqs-- of likely caucus participants, breaks down like this, very bad news for Biden:

• Elizabeth- 28%
• Mayo Pete- 20%
• Bernie- 18%
• Status Quo Joe- 12%
• Klobuchar- 4%
• Kamala- 3%
• Steyer- 3%

Yesterday the NY Post published a report that David Axelrod, Obama's former top advisor, said Biden is running his campaign "as if he were in the federal witness protection program, and also trashed his 'bewildering' defense of son Hunter’s controversial business dealings in foreign countries. They have him in the candidate protection program,” Axelrod said in a profile of Biden in New York magazine, headlined “The Zombie Campaign."

Axelrod said, "I don’t know if you can do that. I don’t know if you can get through a whole campaign that way. Either he can hack it or he can’t hack it. If you’re worried the candidate can hurt himself talking to a reporter, that’s a bad sign... Perhaps he can [hang on]. But that’s generally not the way the physics of these things work. Generally, you’re either moving up or moving down. Warren is clearly moving up. There’s no sign that he is."