Thursday, August 29, 2019

It Was Inevitable But Most Voters Now Recognize That Trump Is Hurting Their Economic Prospects-- Bye-Bye, Pig Man


Steven Rattner's NY Times OpEd on Tuesday, Trump Can't Beat Obama On The Economy must have driven Señor Trumpanzee insane. Rattner, who worked in the Obama Treasury Dept., hit every Trump sore spot he could think of. "Recession fears may be seeping into the national conversation, but President Trump continues to boast about how great the American economy is-- “the best in the world, by far,” Mr. Trump tweeted a few days ago. Time for a reality check on Mr. Trump’s economic accomplishments, using two key measuring sticks: how well the economy is doing, compared with its performance under President Barack Obama’s leadership, and whether it has performed up to Mr. Trump’s promises."
The short answer is, the economy’s performance is not much different than it was under Mr. Obama and far short of what Mr. Trump pledged.

Take, for example, the all-important matter of jobs. Yes, many unemployed Americans are back on the payrolls. Yes, the unemployment rate continues to fall, as it did under Mr. Obama. But no, the pace of hiring has not been faster than it was during a similar period under Mr. Obama and indeed, has been even a bit slower.

In the first 30 months of the Trump presidency, jobs were added at an average rate of 191,000 a month. That’s certainly respectable, although it’s still less than the increase of 220,000 jobs a month during the final two and a half years of the Obama presidency.

Moreover, on Aug. 21, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that it is likely to revise downward substantially payroll gains earlier this year, which could cut about 15,000 jobs a month from Mr. Trump’s tally.

Then there are wages, the other key component of what matters financially to everyday Americans. The rate of pay raises has continued to edge up under Mr. Trump, a typical occurrence in the latter part of an economic recovery. But more important is what is left for workers after inflation takes its bite.

And on that measure, earnings for American workers rose faster under Mr. Obama.

Not to mention that Mr. Trump has utterly failed to deliver on his wage promises. As part of pushing for the 2017 tax cut, his Council of Economic Advisers projected that the legislation would raise average pay by $4,000 a worker. No material amount of that has been realized.

Then there’s the overall economy. The sluggishness of growth since the 2008 recession has puzzled and dismayed policymakers. During his presidential campaign, Mr. Trump routinely promised to push this rate up; in seeking passage of his tax cut legislation, he said growth would accelerate to “4, 5 and maybe even 6 percent.”

That is not remotely what transpired. The tax cut produced a short “sugar high,” a momentary boost. Gross domestic product, after adjusting for inflation, rose at a 3.5 percent rate in the second quarter of 2018. But for 2018 as a whole, the 2.5 percent increase did not come close to the Trump administration’s projection of 3 percent.

...Now the economy is demonstrably slowing down, thanks in large part to Mr. Trump’s trade war. Interestingly, the business community appears more worried than consumers, who have continued to spend and who, in surveys, still express confidence.

Capital investment has ceased growing (and has even fallen a bit in recent months), manufacturing output peaked last December and business sentiment is softening.

As a result, forecasters have been marking down their projections; by the end of this year, J.P. Morgan expects G.D.P. to be increasing at only a 1.8 percent rate. (The White House seems to live in a parallel universe; it clings resolutely to its prediction of 3.2 percent growth this year.)

Should that slowdown occur, expect Mr. Trump to blame the Federal Reserve and the interest rate increases it instituted beginning in December 2015. But the Fed’s increases were modest; rates are still exceptionally low by historical standards, especially in the tenth year of a recovery.

Accordingly, private economists rank the trade war as playing a much larger role in the slowing economy than the Fed’s actions. (And, of course, now it has begun cutting rates.)

“The fears of a further slowing in growth and recession are entirely due to the trade war,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told me. “If the president follows through on his current tariff threats, growth will continue to weaken to well below the economy’s 2 percent potential by early next year.”

Mr. Zandi is not alone. Private economists recently polled by Reuters gave a median 45 percent probability of the United States economy entering recession in the next two years.

Economists are notoriously poor at predicting downturns. But what’s not disputable is even if we duck a recession, when it comes to the economy, Mr. Trump still has not eclipsed Mr. Obama’s record and is many miles from making America great again.

Voters are starting to notice as well, Yesterday's Quinnipiac Poll is probably what set off all Trump's twitter lunacy yesterday-- attack after attack against anything he could think of... just more of his mindless rage. Any Democrat would beat him... and by a lot:
Biden v Trumpanzee- 54-38%
Bernie v Trumpanzee- 53-39%
Warren v Trumpanzee- 52-40%
Kamala v Trumpanzee- 51-40%
Mayo Pete v Trumpanzee- 49-40%
Pile of dog shit v Trumpanzee-- 48-41%
Why? Well... by a wide margin-- 56% to 38% voters say that they disapprove of the way Trump is handling his job, quite bit worse than last month, when he was only down 54% to 40%. And although voters disapproved of Trump's job performance by every single metric exploted-- worst being how he handles race relations (32% to 62%)-- his handling of the economy is now detrimental to his chances of being reelected. And the Trump Recession hasn't even started yet other than in rural counties and the Farm Belt. Quinnipiac reported that for the first time since Trump occupied the White House, more voters say that the national economy is getting worse than getting better-- 37% saying it is getting worse, 31% saying it is getting better and 30% saying its more or less the same. 41% of voters say that Trump's policies are hurting the nation's economy and just 37% say that they're helping.



At 11:58 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

So what? The courts are stuffed with corporatist hacks, regulatory governmental agencies have been demolished, the rule of law is dead, and big money talks. Trump may well be cast aside, but the damage he has done will remain unrepaired while his allies carry on with more destruction.

At 6:01 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Aside from the inadequate and corporate-aimed "STIM", obamanation and the democraps didn't do one single thing to help the economy. He and his party totally abdicated.

The only action taken was by the FED who also served the investor class only with its QE program that bought 10s of trillions in junk debt to keep those poor billionaire investors from losing their asses.
Nobody did shit for the 11 million who lost jobs and the 10 million homeowners who lost their homes. Not even for the million or so who had their homes stolen even after they did all they were required to do to keep them (see: mnuchin, steven).

But the same intellectual gnats who elected pig man (and tried to elect the bankers' whore) now are seeing the light?

cannot possibly be true. they elected a bunch more democraps in '18 when that cannot ever be of any help.

what are they going to do in 2020? elect even more democraps who won't do shit?

yes, Virginia, we ARE that fucking stupid.

At 7:05 AM, Blogger Scott Garren and Heather Shay said...

We should remember that 9 of the 10 post-war recessions started under Republican Presidents. History is repeating itself.

At 11:38 AM, Anonymous Hone said...

It is useless to talk about the economy in terms of Trump's predictions. We know rather well at this point that he is completely ignorant, avoids anyone who has real expertise and lies his head off. And it is very likely (definitely?) that he has serious neurological and psychiatric impairment. All his statements and promises have been worthless. He is worthless but extremely dangerous in his worthlessness.

At 2:24 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Scott and Heather, 2008 at least was a direct consequence of bill Clinton and democraps passing GLBA and CFMA in the '90s. cheney/bush didn't get in the way, but the changes that allowed it were the work of democraps and pretty much ONLY democraps.

When it comes to recessions, few if any are immediate results of republican/Nazi actions. They are delayed and cumulative reactions to policies of a decade or more before they actually hit.

The next recession will be a direct but delayed reaction to the refusal of obamanation and democraps to change a single thing structurally or regulatorily in order to prevent it.

FDR and the Democrats of the '30s and '40s actually did stuff to prevent future recessions. Nobody since the '60s has done much of anything to prevent them.

Capitalism in this shithole runs on a 10-15 year boom/bust cycle. We're approaching year 12 since the last bust. not much longer. it's all baked in.

again, NOBODY... NEITHER PARTY has done shit to prevent it for 50 years.

At 4:17 PM, Blogger Scott Garren and Heather Shay said...

I agree that the Dem establishment has not done what needed to be done and still won't but 9 out of 10 is a hell of a coincidence.

At 8:18 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

coincidence it is. If the dates of each recession's effects being felt were listed, you could walk backward 8-12 years from each one and probably see what caused it.

I already 'splained 2008. the little one that got Clinton elected in '92 went back to Reagan. The one that got Reagan elected was a little different. It was due to the Carter admin (Volcker) monetizing the viet nam war debt, among other organic factors.

Back to the article: the pie charts show that at least $2.1T of the debt it tries to dump on trump's lap was actually added by bipartisan action. And the 2019 contribution ($1.7T)was from a democrap house.

Since probably 1982, after the DLC corrupted the democrap party establishment, and the beginning of the democraps' fealty to reaganomics (neoliberalism), all economic upheavals have been bipartisan in their genesis.

Yes, trump is president while the 99.9% get ratfucked. But obamanation was president for 8 years of ratfucking. Whomever is the next president will be continuing that same ratfucking in one or many forms.

To infer that it belongs to one guy or one party is a lie. It's a lie meant to keep the left too stupid to avoid electing the next ratfuckers.

At 7:11 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The $1.8T tax cut was also not blocked by the democraps. So you can put that one in the bipartisan column too.

So, either actively ($2.1T) or passively ($1.8T), the democraps are just as guilty.

it is not trump's debt. it's the bipartisan us government's debt. and who elected that government?

and who will refuse, yet again, to do a single thing differently in 2020?

so... who is responsible? not trump.


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