Can Andy Beshear Beat Bevin This Coming November? Trump Is Flipping Out Over This Race

Kentucky is a weird and intriguing state when it comes to politics. Just watch the great explanation of what's going on there in the Samantha Bee video above before you read another word. It's one of the reddest states in the Union (PVI is R+15-- worse than Alabama, Mississippi, Texas or Kansas) and Trump beat Hillary there 1,202,971 (62.5%) to 628,854 (32.68). She won just two of Kentucky's 120 counties. Hillary even managed to lose Elliott County, which had never-- in its 150 year history-- voted for a Republican before, not Reagan, not Eisenhower, not Harding... just Trump. Anyway, that's not what's intriguing. What is, is how much Kentucky voters hate their Republican politicians and vote for them anyway. Kentucky voters, for example, hate Mitch McConnell more than the voters in any state hate their senator. Every year since dinosaurs roamed the planet McConnell has been rated the most hated senator in America. His approval from Kentucky voters was 36% this year, an actual improvement over the 30% it was a couple of years earlier. Unlike in other states, though, Kentuckians keep reelecting the politicians they detest.

Alex Isenstadt, writing for Politico yesterday, reported that Trump has his own people racing to save Matt Bevin, a Trump loyalist in a red state who's deeply unpopular and on the ballot in November. "Bevin," he wrote, "is a presidential phone-buddy and White House regular who’s become one of President Donald Trump’s loudest surrogates. He’s also one of the most unpopular governors in the country, facing a treacherous reelection in November. And the White House, fearing that an embarrassing loss in a deep-red state would stoke doubts about the president’s own ability to win another term, is preparing to go all-in to save him." Trump keeps sending Pence down to Kentucky to raise money and to fire up gay-haters among the evangelical base.

The Trump team has watched with growing concern as Bevin’s approval ratings have plummeted to the low 30s. With the presidential campaign kicking into gear, the Kentucky governor’s race is likely to be the most closely-watched contest in the run-up to 2020, and Trump aides acknowledge alarm bells will go off if one of the president’s closest allies loses in a state that Trump won by nearly 30 percentage points.

“You want to be winning and not losing in red states ahead of your reelection bid,” said Scott Jennings, a Louisville-based Republican strategist who served as a top political aide in the George W. Bush White House. “I think having the president come and remind everyone what’s at stake is important.”

Bevin has visited the White House so frequently that his presence in the West Wing has become a running joke among some Trump aides. Since Jan. 2018, the Kentucky governor has visited the White House 10 times, according to a count provided by an administration official. Over the past year, the White House has dispatched at least nine cabinet heads and top officials to Kentucky to promote the Trump agenda with the governor. First daughter Ivanka Trump has gone twice.

...The governor’s plight has caused unease across the party. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who defeated Bevin in a bitter 2014 primary, has put aside the past rivalry and instructed his political team to be helpful to the governor in any way he wants. Aides to both men have been in touch.

McConnell, who wields a formidable political apparatus in the state, has much at stake in the governor’s race. Like Trump, the GOP leader is on the ballot in 2020 and a Bevin loss could further energize Democrats who are eager to take McConnell down.

The fact that Democrats are even competitive in the Kentucky governor’s race represents a remarkable turn of fortunes. Republicans control both U.S. Senate seats, five of the state’s six congressional seats, the governorship, and both chambers of the state legislature. Barack Obama’s aggressive efforts to address climate change, many believe, deeply undercut the Democratic Party’s prospects in the coal-dependent state.

But Bevin in nonetheless in jeopardy. After narrowly winning the 2015 gubernatorial primary, he picked a series of high-profile fights, most notably with public school teachers. Last week, Bevin, who’s waged an intense campaign to reform the state’s pension system, came under fire for blaming striking teachers for the shooting of a 7-year-old girl who had stayed home because school had been shut down.

“The governor has a tough reelection, largely because he’s not a part of the political establishment and has ruffled feathers and gotten into fights in Frankfort,” said Nick Everhart, a Republican strategist with extensive experience in the state.

The governor’s political standing is so precarious that he's being forced to spend campaign funds more than six months before the election. Bevin on Thursday purchased about $500,000 worth of May commercial airtime.

State Attorney General Andy Beshear, the son of popular former Gov. Steve Beshear, is widely considered the front-runner in a May 21 Democratic primary that also includes state House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins and former state Auditor Adam Edelen.

People close to Bevin say his general election campaign will focus heavily on the president. The hope, they say, is that the president will help win over many of the blue-collar voters who backed Trump in 2016 but who’ve soured on the governor over his push for pension reform.

And they’re eager for Trump to savage Bevin’s eventual Democratic opponent.

“I hope the president uses his political capital in Kentucky because he’s got it here,” said Steve Robertson, a former Kentucky GOP chairman. “I think he could make a huge difference.”

In February, PPP surveyed Kentucky voters in regard to the 2020 Senate race and found that a generic Democrat is within the margin of error-- 45-42% in a race to release McTurtle. Their key findings:

• There are signs Mitch McConnell is losing Trump voters. Among people who voted for Trump in 2016, 36% disapprove of McConnell’s job performance and 40% say they think it’s time for someone new to hold his Senate seat.

 • Many who voted fro McConnell in 2014 have soured on him. Among people who voted for McConnell in 2014, 30% disapprove of his job performance and 32% say they think it’s time for someone new to hold his Senate seat.

 • McConnell’s standing in Kentucky among Republicans pales in comparison to Trump’s. Only 47% of Republicans approve of the job McConnell is doing, compared to 87% of Republicans who approve of Trump’s job performance. 39% of Republicans disapprove of the job McConnell is doing while only 12% disapprove of Trump’s job performance. Only 47% of Republicans think McConnell deserves to be reelected, and 44% of Republicans think it's time to elect someone new.