2020 Is Shaping Up Well For Democrats, Primarily Because Republicans, Led By Trump, Are Screwing The Pooch

There are some Trump supporters who will NEVER abandon him

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, had some good news for House Democrats yesterday: their average generic ballot edge over Republicans is as strong as it was last cycle, when they netted over 40 seats. What he's saying, basically, is that "while it’s very early in the cycle and these polls are not predictive so far in advance, the House generic ballot polling right now looks very similar to what we saw this time two years ago... [I]f you’re looking for signs of a growing backlash against the new Democratic-majority U.S. House of Representatives, you won’t find it in national generic ballot polling so far. Democrats led the House generic ballot the whole way in the 2017-2018 RealClearPolitics average. From Jan. 1, 2017 through April 30, 2017, there were 12 generic ballot polls included. The Democrats led every single one, and by an average of six points. This year, from Jan. 1 through April 30, there are 11 polls in the average, and the Democrats lead in every one… by an average of six points."

The NRCC is counting on flipping at least 18 seats held by Democrats in the 31 seats that Trump won and where Democrats are now sitting. That's unlikely. In fact, it's much more likely that the GOP could knock off 3 or 4  especially weak hybrid Democrats-- basically Republicans with a "D" next to their name and an "F" next to their voting record-- in very red districts, like OK-05 (pathetic Blue Dog Kendra Horn), while losing dozens of seats Republicans barely managed to hold onto last cycle in districts the DCCC fucked up badly, particularly in Texas and New York.

Meanwhile, as Eric Levitz explained to New York Magazine readers this week, Trump's coalition may not be as stable as his relatively low approval rating. "Perhaps," speculated Levitz, "he has compensated for significant losses with some demographics by gaining ground with others. This isn’t an idle question. Trump owed his 2016 victory to the remarkable efficiency of his coalition. His 46 percent of the vote bought him a comfortable Electoral College majority because it was comprised disproportionately of non-college-educated white voters who are overrepresented in the Midwest’s key battleground states. Trade 100,000 of the mogul’s votes from blue-collar whites in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin for 100,000 of Clinton’s votes in the affluent suburbs of deep-blue states and the Trump presidency doesn’t happen. Happily for Democrats, a new study suggests that Trump has, in fact, been making such a trade over his first two years in office."

In its latest report, the VSG [the Democracy Fund’s Voter Study Group] illuminates one critical shift hiding beneath Trump’s sturdy support: He has lost significant ground with Obama-to-Trump voters. In the project’s 2016 survey, 85 percent of such voters held a “favorable view of the president.” In its latest one, that figure fell to 66 percent. That may not sound like a lot, but, as we’ve observed, it won’t necessarily take a lot to change the course of history.

“Even small movement among these voters-- who represented 9 percent of voters in 2016-- may prove significant heading into the 2020 presidential election,” the VSG’s research director Robert Griffin writes in the report. “Obama-Trump voters are also disproportionately white, non-college educated and, as a result, are likely to be well distributed geographically for the purpose of electoral impact.”

Meanwhile, Trump’s standing seems to have improved among NeverTrump Republicans-- defined as Romney voters who went third party in 2016-- although this fraction of the electorate is so small that its modestly shifting views do not cross the threshold of statistical significance.

The report also appears to confirm that there is a hard ceiling on Trump’s support. Only 49 percent of voters have ever approved of Trump’s performance at any time since he took office. Which means that even if “Trump was able to regain a favorable rating from every American who had previously offered a positive opinion of him in the last two years, this would still only represent about half of Americans.”

Finally, the report provides a (highly limited) form of evidence that the electorate’s most ambivalent voters could opt for change in 2020: The vast majority of Americans-- including most independents and Republicans-- “are more likely to report negative emotions when they think about politics” now than they were before Trump’s election. Roughly three-quarters of the public say that they “feel disgusted” when they think about their nation’s politics.

All else being equal, that seems like an undesirable state of affairs for the incumbent.

I'm not as sanguine as Levitz is about that last point. Trump may seem like a dullard in many ways, but he's a master manipulator when it comes to mass-emotions. As we explained yesterday-- for those who missed it, these are the characteristics Bernie or Biden or Kamala or whomever the Democratic presidential nominee is, will have to deal with. (And, increasingly, it looks like many Democratic congressional candidates are going to have to deal with the same characteristics.) This describes high functioning sociopaths:

• High IQ: High functioning sociopaths often have a higher IQ than other sociopaths or people without personality disorders. This helps them plan, manipulate, and exploit others.
• Lack of empathy: Difficulty in empathizing with others or understanding the emotional consequences of their actions.
• Narcissism: They often have strong self-love and grandiose self-image. This occurs because of low esteem and delusional beliefs.
• Charming: Although most sociopaths lack empathy, they are capable of mimicking and manipulating emotions to appear charming and normal.
• Secretive: A sociopath doesn't feel the need to share intimate details with others unless it is to manipulate.
• Sexually deviant: Since they lack guilt, remorse, and emotional attachments, sociopaths tend to have affairs and engage in the questionable sexual activity.
• Sensitive to criticism: Despite their lack of empathy, sociopaths desire the approval of others. They feel entitled to admiration and are quick to anger when criticized.
• Impulsive behavior: Sociopaths often live in the moment and will do what they feel is needed to reach their immediate goals.
• Compulsive lying: Disregarding the truth to make themselves look better or get what they want.
• Needing constant stimulation: Sociopaths often get bored easily and need to be actively engaged.
• Addictive Behavior: Their compulsive mindset may result in addiction to drugs, alcohol, sex, gambling, or other addictive behaviors.
• Criminal Behavior: Criminal activity associated with sociopaths could include theft, assault, or destruction of property.