The Last Senate Seat To Fill For 2018: Mississippi

It's shocking that 45.2% of the folks who voted in the midterms, voted for a Republican. That "OK, we suck, but we're not as bad as they are" Party may be celebrating that 8.6 million more voters cast ballots against Republicans than for them, but... how is it possible that any non-KKK members and Nazis voted for Republicans at all? NBC News reported that it's the biggest margin the Democrats have had since Watergate. Sounds good but... look at the competition. The Dems scored 53.1% (58,990,609 votes) while Republican candidates scored 45.2% (50,304,975 votes). That many of our fellow citizens brainwashed by Fox, Hate Talk Radio and Satanic "churches" pretending to follow Jesus! Very sad-- but apparently what happens when a country's educational system falls apart.

It looks like the new House is going to be 235 to 200 (unless TJ Cox flips CA-21 and replaces David Valadao, which looked increasingly likely as another big batch of votes were counted yesterday), not that impressive when you consider... Trump... and how awful the GOP has been over the past decade. That's what people want? How's that possible? I watched the full, painful Ed Balls BBC documentary on the plane returning from Turkey and I'm not convinced any Trump supporters have 3-digit IQs. This is the trailer, which is painful enough:



Next Tuesday is/isn't on the ballot again-- this time in a Senate special election in Mississippi to fill out the final 2 years of Thad Cochran's term. Mississippi? That should be a slam dunk for Republicans, right? Well... true the PVI is R+9 and true Trump beat Hillary there 700,714 (57.86%) to 485,131 (40.08%)-- even more than by how much McCain and Romney beat Obama. Of Mississippi's 82 counties, Trump won 55. There were half a dozen counties that went for Trump with over 80% of voters. Sicker yet, Bernie didn't win a single county in the state in the 2016 primary. The state Senate has 32 Republicans and 20 Democrats and the state House has 72 Republicans and just 48 Dems.

On November 6, the other Mississippi Senate race, GOP incumbent Roger Wicker beat Democrat David Baria 515,131 (58.8%) to 342,905 (39.2%). 875,621 Mississippians voted, Slightly more people voted in the first round of the special-- 883,697 people. But no one reached 50%, meaning there would be a run-off... next week.

As of November 7, Cindy Hyde-Smith had spent $3,354,107 (with $204,460 left) and Mike Espy had spent $2,184,465 (with $248,211 left. Right wing groups have spent $3,400,847 smearing Espy while outside Democrats have spent just $715,421 attacking Hyde-Smith. Hyde-Smith has wrapped herself around Trump entirely.






It's all about Trump but, as the Cook Report put it this week, it's also all about turnout.

The run-off contest between Hyde-Smith and Espy started the day after the general election when Hyde-Smith went on air with a positive television spot as the Mississippi Victory Fund aired an ad portraying Espy as a liberal who would oppose President Trump’s agenda and would have voted against Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court. The NRSC followed days later with a spot that focused on Espy’s time as a lobbyist. The Senate Leadership Fund, Senate Republicans’ super PAC, brought up a scandal that enveloped Espy when he was Agriculture Secretary in which he was indicted on 39 counts of bribery and fraud, among other charges, arguing that Espy would be part of the “Washington swamp” if elected. What the ad didn’t say is that Espy was cleared of all those charges; the Espy campaign aired a spot detailing his innocence and invoking the name of late Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia.

Espy and the Senate Majority PAC, Senate Democrats’ super PAC, have aired their own television spots. One Espy ad features the candidate speaking directly to the camera about his experience bringing people together and his support for the re-election of Republican Gov. Haley Barbour in 2007. His campaign’s ads have also taken Hyde-Smith to task for voting for a bill that provided millions in state economic development funds for construction of a beef plant that never opened. A Senate Majority PAC ad took aim at the contributions Hyde-Smith has taken from insurance companies, suggesting that she will side with them over the interests of voters.

Hyde-Smith has made a number of unforced errors that could combine to hurt her at the polls on November 27. First, while praising a supporter, she said, “If he invited me to a public hanging, I’d be on the front row.” The comment is widely perceived as racist, particularly in the South, and carried more weight since Espy is African American. Hyde-Smith’s campaign said that the comments were blown out of proportion and she would not apologize. Days later, Hyde-Smith seemed to support voter suppression, although it came across as more of a joke than a sincere endorsement of any effort to keep liberal college students away from the polls. The newest television ad from Espy’s campaign hits Hyde-Smith on both these comments, saying that she reinforces old stereotypes and that “Mississippi is better than this.”

Domestic Terrorism: The Oval Office by Nancy Ohanian

Democrats hope that Hyde-Smith’s missteps will energize African-American and non-Republican white voters and that these two groups will turn out in high enough numbers to topple Hyde-Smith. Sound familiar? It should as it is the same proposition that Democrats used to win the special election in Alabama in December of 2017. There are indeed some similarities. On November 6, African Americans made up 33 percent of the electorate and Espy got 94 percent of that vote. In addition, non-Republican white voters (Democrats and independents) made up another 16 percent and Espy won the vast majority of these voters. According to some Democratic strategists, Espy can win the run-off if the African-American turnout ticks up a couple of points and the percentage of non-Republican white voters stays about the same. Democrats relied on a very similar formula in Alabama to push Doug Jones across the finish line.

If there are similarities, there are also differences. The most important is that Hyde-Smith is not former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore, the GOP nominee in the Alabama special election. Hyde-Smith may be proving to be an inept candidate, but unlike Moore, no one is stepping forward to accuse her of being a pedophile, nor has she been suspended from the state Supreme Court twice for ignoring the Constitution. On the flip side, Espy, who has been a fixture in state politics for decades, has a lot more credibility with the voters he needs to turn out on November 27 than Jones, a relative newcomer to politics, did with similar constituencies in Alabama.

Democrats can make an argument that Espy has a path to victory next week, but they acknowledge that the terrain is pretty steep. As one Democratic strategist put it, “we have a puncher’s chance,” a boxing term that means an outclassed boxer can win if he lands one good punch.

Republicans are fairly confident they will win, though they acknowledge that the race has closed and Hyde-Smith is ahead by just five points. They say, however, that President Trump’s job approval rating is in the mid-50s, and both Hyde-Smith’s job approval and favorable ratings are above 50 percent. There hasn’t been a public poll released in the race since the middle of October.

Both parties have plenty of boots on the ground working to identify and turn out voters. Democratic U.S. Sens. Kamala Harris of California and Cory Booker of New Jersey have stumped for Espy in an effort to fire up African-American voters. Numerous Democratic U.S. Senators have lent their assistance to help raise money. The Espy campaign is also touting an endorsement from former Vice President Joe Biden. President Trump intends to do two rallies on Hyde-Smith’s behalf on Monday, November 26, the day before the run-off election. As we saw on November 6, Trump did manage to motivate his base on behalf of a number of GOP Senate candidates.

The biggest unknown in this race is the degree to which voters are engaged enough to head to the polls. They are certainly being bombarded with ads across all media platforms, but they are also thinking about Thanksgiving, college football, Black Friday bargains and holiday decorating. Where does going to the polls on the Tuesday after Thanksgiving fit on that list of priorities?

The odds of Hyde-Smith winning this contest are far greater than of Democrats pulling an upset, but observers might be surprised by how close the margin ends up being. The race will remain in the Lean Republican column.

Trump will be down there campaign for Hyde-Smith himself next week.