Biggest Congressional Upset Of 2018: Kendra Horn From Oklahoma City

Probably the biggest surprise last Tuesday was in Oklahoma City, where Democrat Kendra Horn beat Republican incumbent Steve Russell in a race that virtually no one was following. First of all, everyone agrees that OK-05 is a "safe" Republican district; she will be the first Democrat to represent the district since the 1975. Russell is a garden variety Trump rubber-stamp and Horn was just some nothing-special Democrat in what looked like a vanity campaign. Not a single poll showed her even close; in fact, not a single poll showed the race in single digits. The last one before election day-- the Sooner Poll showed her with 37.1% of the vote to Russell's 48.6%. Nate Silver gave her a 1 in 7 shot at winning the seat (14.3%) She got lucky.

Yes, it's the least red district in the state-- but the PVI is still a very daunting R+10. (The average incoming freshman looks to be coming from a district with an average R+1 off 2.) Obama lost with 40.8% both times he ran and Hillary's loss was 53.2-39.8%-- not a district that interested the DCCC.

But... Horn spent double what Russell did having raised $1,015,995 to his $846,702. Until the last minute, there was no significant outside spending until Michael Bloomberg's Independence USA PAC came in with $429,664 for a devastating anti-Russell TV spot:



Horn was a staffer for Rep. Brad Carson, a Blue Dog from OK-02, AKA, Little Dixie, and then spent time as a corporate lobbyist, before working as executive director of Sally’s List, the local version of Emily’s List. She was pushed out of that job after three years during which time the number of women in the state legislature declined. Even though Bernie Bernie won the Oklahoma primary by over 10 points, Horn was a big Hillary booster and the female Hillary die-hards in the 5th were the force behind Horn this cycle. Horn has made it clear that she does not back Medicare-for-All or anything else progressive and pointedly refers to herself as "a moderate" and a "centrist" who wants to cooperate with Republicans to "get things done."

There was no blue wave in Oklahoma. Democrats did badly in virtually ever race but the stunning OK-05 Oklahoma victory. They lost a net of 3 seats in the state House, where there are now 76 Republicans and only 25 Democrats. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Drew Edmondson carried only 4 of 77 counties, but one was Oklahoma County which makes up 90% of CD-05. Although he lost the state by a 12 margin, he carried Oklahoma County by the same margin. His coattails did wonders for Horn, who carried Oklahoma County by a 2% margin. She sounds exactly like someone who will go straight to the backbenches, make no impact and be defeated in the next red wave, if not before.