Wednesday, February 07, 2018

While You Slept... Trump Was Losing In Missouri And Minnesota


Mike Revis

Missouri is safe Trump country, right? Maybe not as safe as the pundits think. Yes, Trump beat Hillary 1,594,511 (56.8%) to 1,071,068 (38.1%). Of Missouri's 114 counties, Hillary won 4-- Boone, Jackson, St Louis County,and St Louis City (which gets counted separately). She lost Jefferson County 68,973 (65.1%) to 31,546 (29.8%). It includes suburbs south of St Louis and is very white (95.4%) and less than 1% black. It's considered a swing county.

Republican John McCaherty had resigned in September and yesterday was the election to fill his seat. Moderate millennial Democrat Mike Revis (27 years old) beat Republican David Linton, a 59 year old anti-Choice fanatic and gun nut, 52-48%. Trump had won this district by almost 28 points.

In 2016 the Democrats didn't even bother to put up a candidate against McCaherty after he had been reelected in 2014 against Democrat Tom Dohack 67-33%.

Meanwhile further north in Minnesota, yesterday saw Democrats enthusiastic about participating in the state's precinct caucuses and non-binding straw poll and Republicans... not so much. Tim Walz (D) and Jeff Johnson (R) were the winners in the first phase of the gubernatorial contest.
For Republicans, the night offered a clear warning: Low turnout showed the risk of an enthusiasm gap-- a potential complacency born of the party’s control of the White House and Congress.

With all precincts reporting, almost 11,000 Republicans had participated in the caucus, barely more than half the 20,000 who showed up 2010 and well less than the 14,000 in 2014.

On the DFL side, turnout was on its way to 30,000, more than the 22,500 who turned out in 2010, the last time there was an open governor’s race.

But even as Republicans headed to their caucuses, former Gov. Tim Pawlenty was upstaging the event.

The former two-term Republican governor announced he is leaving his job as chairman of a Washington, D.C.-based bank lobbying organization to consider another bid for governor. Pawlenty’s entry into the race would jolt the Republican field, and speculation about his next move hung in the air at many Republican caucuses.

...In addition to the open governor’s race, the presence on the ballot of two U.S. Senate races, a number of hotly contested congressional races, other statewide offices including attorney general, and the battle for control of the state House is likely to make Minnesota the scene of intense political competition as the country prepares for the first nationwide elections in the era of President Donald Trump.

But both political parties share a focus on the governor’s race. If the Republicans win, they would likely control both the legislative and executive branches of government for the first time in more than half a century.

The DFL is terrified of that prospect, especially as the 2020 census nears, after which the party in power will be able to redraw congressional and legislative district lines in their favor. If the DFL can keep the seat that retiring Gov. Mark Dayton has held for two terms, the party could continue to position the state in opposition to the Trump agenda.

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At 5:24 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Two theories:

Trump is losing voter support, and the DINO-Whigs have a chance.


The Republicans can't come up with candidates who are Trumpian enough to win voter support. The DINO-Whigs have a chance.


The way the DINO-Whigs are abusing candidates by demanding ridiculous fundraising targets to be spent on Party "consultants" and other outrageous impositions, and one can again expect the Party to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Popcorn, anyone?


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