Thursday, February 15, 2018

Still Flipping Out Over The Generic Congressional Polls? Don't


For those still nervous about generic congressional polls showing less strength among generic Democrats than it was a few weeks ago I want to offer two graphics. Above is one showing how Democrat Margaret Good fared on Tuesday against the son of Republican Congressman Vern Buchanan in a Trump district in southwest Florida. It's great than Margaret won but what's even more important is that there was a 12 point swing away from the Republicans and towards the Democrats in a state legislative race with record-breaking turnout. Remember, Republicans have 12,060 more registered voters in the district than Democrats, Buchanan had a major name ID advantage and Trump carried the district by 4.6 points. Add that to Good's 7.4 point win Tuesday and you see a 12 point swing, a swing that would devastate the GOP if it holds 'til November. Will it? My guess-- based on other special elections this year and last year-- is that the swing will be closer to 20 points than 12 points. Do you think Trump is going to be less of an albatross in November than he is now? Or more of an albatross? Don't forget, Good’s win on Tuesday was the 36th Republican legislative seat in the nation that a Democrat has won since Putin put Trump into the White House. Trump is toxic, even in traditionally red districts he won.

Generic polls don't matter when voters are starting to see who the actual candidates are. If the Democrats are offering high quality candidates like Katie Porter, Doug Applegate, Katie Hill, Laura Oatman, Katie Hill in California, for example, to oppose Trump enablers, you're going to see big swings. If the DCCC, the New Dems, Blue Dogs and EMILY's List try forcing their typical garbage candidates down people's throats as the lesser of 2 evils... the swings will start to evaporate quickly. Democrats want more like Randy Bryce, Kaniela Ing, Lisa Brown and Jared Golden and fewer like Kyrsten Sinema, Brad Ashford and Jay Hulings. Look at this polling showing grassroots progressive Katie Hill going up against Republican Steve Knight on the left and corporate establishment shill Brian Caforio going up against Knight on the right. CA-25 voters know the difference:

Wednesday PPP released its first national poll of the year. "Democrats," they wrote in their analysis, "have a solid 49-41 lead on the generic Congressional ballot, although that’s down a shade from December when it was 51-40. Beyond their overall lead, they’re also benefiting from an enthusiasm advantage- 65% of Clinton voters say they’re ‘very excited’ to vote in the election this fall, compared to 58% of Trump voters."

In head-to-head match-ups with potential 2020 nominees, Trump loses to everyone except the opportunist and hypocrite Kirsten Gillibrand who he beats by one point. Bernie, for example bests Trump 48-44%. Only 42% of voters think Trump is honest to 53% who say he isn’t, and by a 49-44 spread voters outright call him a liar.

As Putin-Gate continues to grow, 45% of voters think Trump’s campaign team colluded with Russia to help him in the election and just 42% don’t think they did. In 54% of voters think Trump should resign if collusion is proven. Only 32% of voters support the proposed Trumpanzee military parade in DC; 55% are opposed.

Some good news for Democrats: there is a national consensus across party lines on the need for nonpartisan redistricting when it comes to congressional and legislative maps-- independents support it 64-6, Democrats support it 58-12, and even Republicans support it 46-17. Voters are split on what is scarier to them between sharks (43%) and Donald Trump (42%).

Did you miss the PPP North Carolina poll a few weeks ago? In this red-leaning swing state it showed that Democrats were ahead on the generic legislative ballot 46-41% for November. "Among voters who are ‘very excited’ about voting in this year’s election-- which could be a low turnout affair with no Senate or Gubernatorial race at the top of the ballot-- the Democratic edge expands to 13 points at 53/40."
The strong position for Democrats is a function of voters being happy with their Democratic Governor and unhappy with their Republican President. 49% of voters approve of the job Roy Cooper is doing to 33% who disapprove. Cooper is actually more popular than he was at this time a year ago when he had a 45/34 approval spread. That’s a big contrast with how his two predecessors fared in their first years in office. Pat McCrory had a 37/47 approval rating in January of 2014 and Bev Perdue had a 30/48 approval rating in January of 2010.

Voters are not happy with the General Assembly. Only 19% approve of the job it’s doing to 51% who disapprove. The Democrats in the legislature aren’t popular, with 39% of voters approving of the job they’re doing to 45% who disapprove. But they’re a lot better off than the Republicans who have only a 35% approval rating with 51% of voters disapproving of them. There’s 59/15 support for nonpartisan redistricting with independents (69/12), Democrats (62/12), and Republicans (45/21) all in favor of it.

While North Carolinians are happy with their Governor, they aren’t happy with their President. Only 42% of voters approve of the job Donald Trump is doing, to 50% who disapprove. Voters blame Trump and the Republicans in Congress over the Democrats in Congress 48/43 when it comes to the government shutdown. 64% of voters in the state support DACA to only 25% who oppose it- that includes 82% of Democrats, 61% of independents, and even 43% of Republicans.
Back to the national polling again-- is any of this going to help Republican candidates in November?

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At 11:05 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

All this is going to do is cause the GOP to increase their efforts to prevent people from voting. What we now see going on in WI is going to spread. It's a long way from settled, and it will get much uglier.

At 5:49 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

11:05, the democraps are doing that by recruiting republicans to run. If there still was a line demarking the two parties, there truly is none any more.

There are still a few old-school lefties trying to run as FDR democrats, but they're being challenged by both the Rs and the democraps.

DWT accurately describes many of the trees and even some of the stands, but still fails to discern the forest for what it is. The forest is a homogeneous and isotropic forest of fascism and corruption.

The only way to fix it is to cut it down and replant it. You cannot wait for old fascist corrupt trees to die and fall down and hope that the few democratic saplings end up regrowing a new forest. It don't work that way.

Remember when, in 1981, the DLC cut down the democratic forest and replanted the fascist corrupt one we live in now? That's how it's done.

At 5:53 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If anything, polling shows one and only one trend: voters are getting dumber every day.

At what point will it be more appropriate to just move to Canada? When trump is viewed as honest and sane by half? I mean, when 10% view him as honest and sane it proves americans are themselves fucking insane. These numbers just show that we're regressing into retarded lemur territory.

At 1:41 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Moving to Canada won't save you, 5:53. The War Department once had a plan (War Plan Crimson) to invade Canada. Since then, the US government has forsworn recognition of foreign borders when in pursuit of a wanted person. It's not much of a stretch to decide that an entire nation merely a fraction of our size could be declared to be such in their entirety.


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