Wednesday, November 29, 2017

Voters Don't Want To See Ryan OR Pelosi As The Next Speaker-- Are We Helpless To Guarantee That?


Most voters want them both gone already

The most current generic congressional vote polling-- by Fox News, NBC/Wall Street Journal, PPP, ABC/Washington Post, Quinnipiac, NPR?Marist, Reuters/Ipsos, and Economist/YouGov-- show the Democrats outpolling the Republicans by, on average 9.6%. Ironically, the poll with the worst news for the Republicans was done by Fox. Among registered voters 50% would like to see Democrats leading Congress and just 35% would prefer to see Republicans running Congress after the next election. That same Fox poll also shows the Democratic Party with a 51%/44% favorable/unfavorable rating while the Republicans have a 40%/55% favorable/unfavorable rating.

John Rogers, the monkey the House Republicans hired to run their version of the DCCC, the NRCC, told The Hill that Republicans would benefit from the years-long attempts to use Nancy Pelosi against Democratic congressional candidates. He admits that the NRCC's main weapon to try to hold onto the House is by making every race about her. "In reality," he said, "next fall is going to come down to whether or not you want to reinstitute Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House."

It's true that the Republicans have become a one-trick pony with that narrative and have every intention of using it again, the way they used it against Jon Ossoff in Georgia this year. Ossoff wads an extraordinarily weak and pointless candidate-- a real DCCC special-- and it was predictable that he would be vulnerable to that kind of idiotic attack. The DCCC doesn't seem capable of the kind of single-minded aggressiveness it takes to turn the tables on the GOP by making Ryan into the kind of villain the Republicans have made Pelosi into. The irony there is that Ryan is already more disliked nationally than Pelosi is-- even after years of Republican slander against her!

Ryan's unfavorable rating is now at 49.3%, compared to Pelosi's 48.7%. When questioned about the GOP efforts to tie Democratic candidates to Pelosi, a DCCC spokesman responded that "Speaker Ryan is increasingly unpopular as he forces the most vulnerable House Republicans to walk the plank on jacking up healthcare costs and increasing middle-class taxes to fund handouts for the rich and large corporations. The midterms will be a referendum on Republicans, and it’s clear that they are failing to come to terms with that reality."

But some of the GOP incumbents most closely tied to Ryan-- take Sean Duffy in Wisconsin as an example-- aren't even being targeted by the DCCC which can't see further than going after Republicans in districts Hillary won. What makes that one-dimensional strategy even more pathetic is the horrifying DCCC recruiting, which focuses on everything people hate about Democrats-- particularly their ties to Wall Street and their wishy-washy Republican-lite stands.

I reached out to several campaigns to ask candidates and campaign managers what they plan do about the NRCC threat. Most wanted to keep it off the record. You can see why from this response from one of the best and most admired campaign managers in the country: "I respect Pelosi, " he told me this morning, "but it's time for her to pack it in-- past time. She's hurting the party's chance to decisively win the midterms and put a check on Trump. I know it's not fair, but the Republicans have succeeded in demonizing her, especially with independent voters... We're going to have to tell our voters that we don't want her or Ryan as Speaker.. We feel bad about equating them both but not even Democrats in [our district] want to see her back with the Speaker's gavel... I agree with you that Hoyer and Crowley would be much worse party leaders but most voters have never heard of either one of them and the Republicans can't use them against candidates... unless they read some obscure blog like yours."

Goal ThermometerTom Guild is Oklahoma City knows he's definitely going to face a barrage of ads conflating him with Pelosi. He doesn't seem worried. "Because of the extreme dysfunction in Congress today," he told me today, "I’m going to wait and see who the candidates for House Democratic Leader/Speaker are before deciding which person to support. It would be hard to do worse than Paul Ryan has done as the leader of House Republicans. I want a progressive who can pass an increase to the minimum wage, single payer health care, a massive infrastructure bill to rebuild our crumbling infrastructure while creating millions of good paying jobs, direct and hasten the transition to renewable energy sources, and invest in America before looking for new overseas military adventures. I will take this decision seriously and am not in anyone’s hip pocket. Where have you gone Joe DiMaggio (or his closest living iteration in Congress)? Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you."

Katie Hill has obviously thought this over, but is it enough? She told me that "From the very beginning, I have been clear that my loyalty is and will always be to the people of the 25th district-- not to party, not to donors, not to corporations or special interests. We know the Republicans will use every line of attack they can think of, but I am indisputably a political outsider and a homegrown candidate, not someone brought in by the Democratic party to run in this district. The voters of the 25th have been getting to know and trust me through our videos and through my presence in the community. They know I am honest and straightforward, and not afraid to stand up to anyone who tries to back me into a corner or do wrong by our community-- no matter who that comes from. I consider that trust sacred and will always honor it. I know my community will understand that, and will not be fooled by the RNC trying to equate me to or pretend that I am beholden to anyone else."

James Thompson, currently running for Congress in a Kansas rematch, has a very different perspective on this than anyone else because he just went through the experience a few months ago. "I ran for Congress in the 4th District of Kansas in the very first Special Election after Trump was inaugurated," he told us. "The DCCC claims they did not help my race because they did not want to 'nationalize it.' Yet, as soon as I received the nomination from the Kansas Democratic Party to run for Congress, the Republican Party 'nationalized' the campaign by immediately tying me to Leader Pelosi, saying she hand-picked me and that I was her puppet. Ron Estes and the Republicans in Kansas, led by the KOCH brothers ultra-conservative political machine, never met a lie they didn’t like. I had never met, nor even spoke with, Nancy Pelosi and yet was being branded like a bull with her unpopularity here in Kansas. She sure never helped my race, and the mere mention of her name hurt my campaign. The same ads used against Ossoff, were used against me by simply switching out his picture for mine. The night of the special election, Leader Pelosi called and offered her condolences for my loss. She was warm, friendly and sympathetic and I greatly appreciated her taking the time out of her busy schedule to call me. While I respect her as a person and her accomplishments as Speaker of the House, her time in leadership needs to end for the good of the Democratic Party. With better leadership from the party, we may have been able to harness the progressive wave sweeping the country and possibly win some of the Special Elections. The Democratic Party needs an infusion of new progressive leadership like Keith Ellison and Ro Khanna. Regardless of whether it is true, Republicans will brand every Democrat with the Pelosi brand in hopes of sinking campaigns in 2018 with the mere mention of her name. New leadership needs to take over and lead the fight for a 50 state strategy. If Leader Pelosi is still in office when I get to Congress, I will vote for new leadership that will ensure the Democratic Party fights in all 50 states."

One of our best congressional candidates: "Off the record, I'll be frank and say I think we need new leadership, I'm just not sure who." Another great congressional candidate who asked for anonymity told me "Off the record, I do not want Nancy Pelosi anywhere near my campaign. Thanks, but no thanks. She is toxic." Another candidate knows exactly who he wants to replace Pelosi and I think he'll be announcing it soon.

David Gill, the Blue America-backed candidate in the central Illinois district held by Ryan puppet Rodney Davis, is certainly not going to vote for Ryan (if he's even still in Congress when Gill gets there in 2019). He told us that "If the Republicans try to attack me as a lapdog for Mrs. Pelosi, we will laugh and let voters know how utterly ridiculous that is. I defeated her chosen candidate in the primary of 2012, and I am in the process of trying to defeat her chosen candidate in the 2018 primary. Additionally, no U.S. House candidate in Illinois history has ever collected more signatures for an independent Congressional campaign than I did last year. Those 11,000+ signatures will make it very clear to voters that my votes in Congress will not be dictated to me by Mrs. Pelosi or anyone else."

Jared Golden is running for the Maine seat held by Trump rubber stamp Bruce Poliquin. He's the Majority Whip of the state legislature and he has a clear understanding about how legislative bodies work. One of his primary opponents happens to be straight out of Pelosi's coterie of super-wealthy elites. And he didn't mince any words. "It’s time for a new generation of leaders in Washington. My support will go to the leader that shows me they care about and understand the priorities of working class people-- it’s got to be someone serious about rebuilding an economy that doesn’t leave small rural states like Maine behind. I want to serve with leaders that demonstrate they have the courage to fight for progressive values and the ability to work across the aisle to deliver results. We need service-driven leaders who will do what’s best for this country and I believe that’s to fight for the great majority-- working and middle class people."

Derrick Crowe, the Blue America-endorsed candidate in the Austin-San Antonio district Lamar Smith is giving up, told us that "Jon Ossoff lost because he refused to fight for key progressive values, concern-trolled government spending like a Republican, and didn't live in the district. His campaign also lacked message discipline and kept throwing spaghetti at the wall to see what would stick. When that's the campaign you run, you let the other side define you, and you don't sufficiently inspire your base to close the gap for you. To put it mildly, that's not the campaign we're running here in TX-21. A vote for me is a vote for a clear set of progressive values that puts us on the side of the working class against corporate power and the billionaires. Anyone who wants my vote for Speaker of the House will have to demonstrate that they are the best vehicle to advance those values in Congress."

Jenny Marshall, the progressive Democrat running for the Piedmont seat Virginia Foxx occupies toked us that "People are looking for a person that can relate to the everyday struggles of average Americans. They need to know that their representative is not bought and paid for by corporate interests. We are separating ourselves from candidates who do not support like progressive issues like single payer health care, campaign finance reform including eliminating corporate donations to campaigns. These issues are important for our communities and they need to know that they have a strong choice that supports what they need."

Doug Applegate has a similar perspective-- as well as some creepy Pelosi candidate backed by big money in his primary. When I asked him if Issa and the GOP Machine will try to conflate him with Pelosi, he laughed and said, "You’ve got to be kidding me. Since nearly beating Darrell Issa after the DCCC came in late in the race only 67 days before election day 2016, corporate and establishment Democrats have only indicated that the last person they want to join their club is a Marine Colonel. While Dem Hill members insist they won’t endorse until after the primary, multiple conservative Democrat Congressmen endorse Mike Levin whose corporation received an 'undisclosed payment/investment' from Exxon in the summer of 2016. Despite that bump from the biggest carbon fuel producer, Levin still insists that he’s an environmental lawyer.  As a former Clinton aide and Qualcomm heiress, a crowbar couldn’t pry Sara Jacobs away from moneyed corporate Democrats and Pelosi. I’m not a corporate Democrat; I’m not an establishment Democrat. I’m a Marine Colonel who will fight for change, for a new labor movement, for single payer healthcare, for public preschool to public university regardless of parental income, for ending oil subsidies that will free market forces to reach 100% renewable energy by 2027 and for real change. The only label you will ever stick on me is 'he’s a Marine Colonel who will fight like hell for change.'"

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At 4:24 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

party delusions. No wonder nothing can ever improve.

"...Republicans have succeeded in demonizing her, especially with independent voters"

Horseshit! Rs have demonized her (with reason) to get their own fucktard voters anxious to vote against her. This is identical to the left's desire to vote for the lying pos banking whore just to keep trump out of the WH. Their version if lesser evilism (greater evilism?).

I'm an independent. And Pelosi (, hoyer, Crowley, scummer, Clyburn...) lost me all by themselves. Their corruption, refusal to impeach cheney, refusal to enact any of the 2008 mandate and junior high-level play acting as they tried to convince incredibly stupid lefties that it was all the fault of the Rs.

Rs can and will say anything they want. It never.. NEVER has any effect on my thinking. It's just ambient noise. Like the neighbor's yapping dog. You learn to block it out.

At 6:06 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why yes, we ARE impotent to affect any such mid-stream horse changing.

You see, they are/were "leaders" by virtue of how much money they raise and then trowel across the members of their "respective" caucuses. It's never been based on merit.
They buy their position with the millions/billions they "earn" from billionaires and corporations on their backs.

Of course, what this means is that WE are impotent to wish it to change AND with this process determining party leadershit, nothing will ever change.

Until WE VOTERS ditch one of the parties and coalesce around something better, that is.


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