Sunday, July 16, 2017

Many "Trump Counties" Are Filled With Voters Who Oppose A Status Quo That Hasn't Worked For Them


The big takeaway from the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll is that Señor Trumpanzee's job approval rating in the counties that fueled his 2016 victory stands at 50%. That's true... but out of context and irrelevant when you scratch the surface just a little tiny bit. Who cares that the reddest hellhole counties in Wyoming and Mississippi still support Trump. That's what they do. What's important here is that the counties that Obama won in 2008 and 2012 and then flipped to Trump in 2016, are the ones with the big buyers' remorse now-- and eager to flip back... as long as the Democrats don't nominate another establishment, status quo candidate like Hillary Clinton.
The poll's sample was taken from 439 counties in 16 states-- Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin-- that either flipped from Barack Obama to Trump, or where Trump greatly outpaced Mitt Romney's performance in 2012.

But there's a significant difference in Trump's approval rating in the these two kinds of Trump counties.

In the Trump "surge counties" (for example: Carbon, Pa., where Trump won 65 percent to 31 percent, versus Romney's 53-45 percent margin)-- 56 percent of residents approve of the president's job performance.

Trump beat Hillary Clinton in these "surge" areas nationwide by a combined 65 percent-to-29 percent margin in 2016.

But in the "flip counties" (for example: Luzerne, Pa., where Obama won 52 percent to 47 percent, compared to Trump's 58-39 margin), Trump's job rating stands at just 44 percent.

Trump won these "flip" areas overall in 2016, 51 percent to 43 percent.
Many of the counties that flipped from Obama 2012 to Trump 2016 were Bernie counties in the primaries. These voters were desperate to find a different way forward for their families and communities and Hillary represented the status quo that wasn't serving their interests. Many of them preferred Bernie-- not just over Hillary, but over Trump-- but in November they made the calculation that Hillary was the greater evil and voted for Trump. I'll show you a key county in half a dozen of the states the poll looked at:
Cedar Co., Iowa- Obama beat Romney 52-47% in 2012 but it flipped to Trump who beat Hillary 56.2% to 38.1%-- after giving Bernie a 55.7-44.3% win over Hillary. Bernie also took more votes than Trump in the county caucus: 354 to 281.
Bay Co., Michigan- Obama beat Romney 52-46% in 2012 but it flipped to Trump who beat Hillary 53.5% to 40.9%-- after giving Bernie a 49.3-46.0% win over Hillary. Bernie also took more votes than Trump in the primary: 6,363 to 5,738.
Carroll Co., New Hampshire- Obama beat Romney 54-45% in 2012 but it flipped to Trump who beat Hillary 50.3% to 44.7%-- after giving Bernie a 63.1% to 36.0% win over Hillary. Bernie also took more votes than Trump in the primary: 5,655 to 4,182.
Jackson Co., North Carolina was a virtual tie in 2012 but last year Trump took it, beating Hillary 53.9% to 42.0%. In the primary, Bernie beat Hillary 57.0% to 38.1% and took 3,021 votes compared to Trump's 1,624.
Wood Co., Ohio- Obama beat Romney 51-47% in 2012 but it flipped to Trump who beat Hillary 50.9% to 42.4%-- after giving Bernie a 53.7-45.8% win over Hillary. Bernie also took more votes than Trump in the primary: 7,165 to 6,911.
Columbia Co., Wisconsin- Obama beat Romney 56-43% in 2012 but it flipped to Trump who beat Hillary 48.3% to 46.2%-- after giving Bernie a 60.5-39.2% win over Hillary. And again, Bernie also took more votes than Trump in the primary: 6,455 to 4,413.
The mainstream media seems as intent on ignoring this metric-- the one that proves Bernie would have won in many of those key districts that flipped to Trump last year-- as the establishment of the Democratic Party does. Wonder why-- aside from the graphic up top from the ABC News/Washington Post poll, also released today. That was the one that showed voters giving Trump "the lowest six-month approval rating of any president in polls dating back 70 years, punctuated by questions about his competence on the world stage, his effectiveness, the GOP health care plan and Russia’s role in the 2016 election. Just 36 percent of Americans polled... approve of Trump’s job performance, down 6 points from his 100-day mark, itself a low." The disgust with Trump, though, is tempered by the perception among most voters that the Democratic Party doesn't stand for anything and that Democrats are just against Trump. "The perceived lack of an affirmative agenda weakens the Democrats’ efforts to capitalize on Trump’s failings," concludes the pollsters.

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At 9:31 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

sweet jeeezis on a saltine, what delusional universe are those trump approvers living in? The "so-called" man is a baby-moron-pig. The rest of the world outside of putin hates him, with very good reason. Every time he opens his mouth, he re-affirms how gawdawful stupid and mean he is.

Americans suck.

At 1:45 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

:The mainstream media seems as intent on ignoring this metric..."

The media is essentially owned by major corporations. Trump is a corporatist. Bernie threatens the corporate oligopoly by inspiring the common man and woman to participate in the governance of this nation in numbers corporatists can't overcome. The corporations then can't rule exclusively for their own benefit.

Presstitutes are well-paid to see things the way their employers desire, giving them a self-interest to defend against the rest of us. No one said it better than Upton Sinclair "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it." $30,000 per day for certain "liberal" media figures buys a whole lot of not understanding!

At 7:17 AM, Anonymous Sue said...

You are ignoring misogyny as a reason for her loss.


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