Monday, February 13, 2017

You Can Now Bet Money That Trump Will Be Impeached-- Real Money, Not Bit-Coins-- And Bye-Bye, Michael Flynn


According to the latest Gallup tracking poll only 40% of Americans approve of the job that Trump is doing, while 55% disapprove. That 55% has been growing every week since Trump was sworn in. The numbers are unprecedented. He's the most disliked newly inaugurated president in American history. And last week, PPP's latest presidential survey showed that the number of people ready for impeachment proceedings against Trump to begin has risen again-- now to an astronomical 46%. In a private DWT poll, we found that most of our readers think overt half the country will want to see Trump impeached before spring is over. Putin may still be happy, but Americans have gotten sick of Trump a lot sooner than they ever have of any other president.

Sunday, Politico reported that betting houses are already wagering on how soon Trump will be impeached. (I may not be getting this exactly right, but when Bill Maher asked Al Franken something like that on his show Friday, Franken said the because Republicans control both the House and the Senate it could be months before they work up the courage to start the process.) According to Politico's report "Gambling houses all over the world are taking in action on whether Trump, inaugurated just last month, will resign or be impeached. And the odds aren’t as long as you might think."
Ladbrokes, the British oddsmaking giant, has Trump’s chances of leaving office via resignation or impeachment and removal at just 11-to-10, or just a little worse than even money. The odds of Trump being impeached this year in the House of Representatives are only 4-to-1, according to the Irish bookmaker Paddy Power, despite GOP control of the chamber. You can win $180 on a $100 bet with Bovada, the online gaming site, that Trump won’t make it through a full term-- though the bet is off if Trump passes away during the next four years.


All in all, Trump has meant big business for the international gambling industry. There’s always been betting on politics-- mostly as a novelty around election season-- but professional bookies say Trump’s unlikely victory and tumultuous transition mean that gamblers are jonesing to wager on his presidency.

“From a betting perspective, Donald Trump’s presidency has triggered a massive boom for these kinds of markets,” said Alex Donohue, the PR manager of Ladbrokes. “With Donald Trump, everything he does, it can be turned into speculation, and that can be turned into gambling.”

...Any actual movement on impeachment wouldn’t come until Americans have turned on Trump en masse. And while Trump is the least-popular newly elected president in modern history, he retains a core of support that has yet to abandon him... Lewis Davey, a spokesman at Paddy Power, called the early days of Trump’s presidency a “roller coaster” and noted the widespread public interest in betting on its future.

“With such little political experience and a rocky start in the White House, it’s understandable people have their doubts on Trump,” Davey said. “We’re currently offering 4-to-1 for Trump to be impeached in the first six months.”

...Paddy Power offers some even more exotic options, pegged to recent White House stumbles. After Trump counselor Kellyanne Conway referenced the fictional “Bowling Green massacre,” there’s an active wager for the next Trump staffer “to quote a fake terror attack.” The favorite there is Sean Spicer, the White House press secretary, at slightly worse than even money (5-to-6).

Spicer is also the favorite to be the first Trump staffer or appointee to leave his post. The odds of Spicer, the former Republican National Committee communications director, leaving by the end of March are 4-to-1, according to Bovada. Bettors can get 10-to-3 odds if Spicer leaves in the second quarter of this year, 9-to-1 in the third quarter, 12-to-1 in the fourth quarter and 4-to-7 odds of making it into 2018.

“Trump is the gift that keeps on giving,” Paddy Power’s Davey said. “We’ve got a bonanza of betting specials on The Donald. When Trump took to Twitter [last week] to defend [daughter] Ivanka after Nordstrom dropped her clothing line, we were out with a [betting] market on next retailer to drop the Ivanka brand next.” (The current favorites are TJ Maxx at 4-to-1, Walmart at 5-to-1 and Amazon at 6-to-1.)

Perhaps the most unusual-- and certainly most lurid-- wager is the 4-to-1 odds offered by Paddy Power that the alleged Russian video of Trump outlined in the dossier compiled by a former British intelligence agent will appear on a pornographic website.

“Trump's character has captured the imagination of the public” overseas said Davey, who compared following his presidency to “watching your favorite soap [opera].”

Anyone who bet on Flynn being the first of the Trump monstrosities to be thrown overboard, would have won tonight. He was asked to walk the plank-- and he did so, just hours after Kellyanne Con-man announced on live TV that he still had Señor Trumpanzee's full confidence. No one knows when we'll find out how much the Russians had been paying him, but you can bet on that coming out soon too. Trumpanzee has named Lt. General Joseph Keith Kellogg, Jr. (Ret) as Acting National Security Advisor. And... Jared Kushner-in-law is searching for a Flynn replacement. I'm not kidding. No bets, though, at least not yet, on an assassination attempt or on Trump dying from stress, over-eating or... God's mercy on our country.

Joe Scarborough on Kellyanne Con-Man: "Counselor to the president Kellyanne Conway’s assertion that former national security adviser Michael Flynn enjoyed 'the full confidence of the president' just hours before he offered his resignation is proof that President Donald Trump’s former campaign manager is 'out of the loop' and acting recklessly, MSNBC host Joe Scarborough said Tuesday morning. 'She goes out and lies and you find out about those lies a couple hours later,' Scarborough said, addressing Morning Joe panelist Willie Geist. 'Or if she's not lying, Willie, she is-- actually what I’ve heard she is-- so out of the loop. She's in none of the meetings and she just goes out without talking without having the facts.'"

UPDATE: What About Trump?

While Paul Ryan and his congressional Republicans are trying to cover this up and just "move on," no one else thinks this episode began or ended with Flynn. Time for Congress to get busy and get to the bottom of what kind of contacts the Trumpists have had with Putin. As Michael Moore tweeted this morning, "Let's be VERY clear: Flynn DID NOT make that Russian call on his own. He was INSTRUCTED to do so.He was TOLD to reassure them. Arrest Trump." And Tom Steyer made much the same case: "Flynn's ties to Russia are a problem -- Trump's ties are a bigger problem. What did he know and when did he know it?" Adam Schiff is the ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee. Here's his statement:

Putin's response, channeled through his now clearly owned and operated Wikileaks shills: "Trump's National Security Advisor Michael Flynn resigns after destabilization campaign by US spies, Democrats, press." According to a report in this morning's Washington Post, "The heads of the foreign affairs committees in both Russia’s upper and lower houses of parliament chalked up Michael Flynn’s resignation to a dark campaign of Russophobia in Washington, and said it would undermine relations between the White House and the Kremlin." And from the Russian Embassy, already discredited lies... burger anyone? With paper towels:

It was Bannon who gave Flynn the final shove out the door, according to this morning's NY Times. "Stephen K. Bannon, the president’s chief strategist, asked for Mr. Flynn’s resignation-- a move that he has been pushing for since Friday, when it became clear that the national security adviser had misled Mr. Pence." Flynn was reported to be "sullen." Flynn's crackpot son, Michael, Jr., the one who made up the story about Hillary running a child molestation ring out of a DC pizzeria, tweeted that his father was done in by a "disinformation campaign." And then immediately deleted the account.

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At 9:16 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

First, any web site that puts up any video of drumpf doing anything or lying (meaning it has sound) is, by definition, a porn site.

What are the odds that before drumpf dies, is murdered or is forced out he starts a war? two wars? three? more? builds concentration camps?

May I point out that Nixon survived for 6 years and got re-elected before impeachment was inevitable... and that was when we still had a free-ish press who did actual, you remember, journalism?

Drumpf could stay for 4 AND GET RE_ELECTED in today's America. totally up to him.

At 11:29 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Apparently the world, not afflicted enough by hundreds of $trillions of financial derivatives, is now immersed in essentially political derivatives to "analyze" our situation.

We're approaching 13-dimensional fake news, aided and abetted by DWT?!?

John Puma

PS: Yes, bye bye Flynn!!!
The only question is how MUCH worse will be his replacement!

At 5:48 AM, Anonymous Hone said...

Flynn's actions were treasonous but it is absolute b.s. for him to take the fall without Trump being included, and assuredly Bannon. There is no way Flynn waltzed into this conversation about potentially lifting Russian sanctions without being given explicit instructions to do so and having the full backing of President-elect Trump and Bannon. Trump and Bannon were also committed treason and should be held accountable, but of course nothing will happen in this regard with this Congress. Hey, Kissinger continues to get away with his similarly treasonous actions during the Vietnam War, and Hillary still has him on a pedestal.

At 8:58 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Next up (excerpt from USA Today

"Rep. Bill Pascrell, a Democrat who serves on the Ways and Means Committee, has asked the committee’s chairman, Rep. Kevin Brady of Texas, to order the Treasury Department to provide tax returns to the committee. Brady's office did not respond to a request for comment Friday.

After privately examining returns — Pascrell is seeking 10 years' worth — the committee could decide to share them with the full House, which would in effect make them public. The 1924 law gives congressional committees that set tax policy the power to examine tax returns. It was used in 1974 when Congress looked at President Richard Nixon's returns, and in 2014 when the Ways and Means Committee released confidential tax information as part of its investigation into the Internal Revenue Service's handling of applications for nonprofit status."

At 7:10 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

As to impeachment... forget it. Ryan controls what does and does not reach the floor. Until der fuhrer says he'll veto the cuts to sustenance programs that gives ryan his boner, ryan will protect him.

ryan wants to kill the elderly, poor, kids, minorities and the sick because he hates them and they're 'spensive to keep alive. That's what drives him. Until drumpf stops being his vehicle for this, he'll keep him.


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