Monday, November 14, 2016

More Clarification About What Happened In House Races Last Tuesday


As far as I can tell, aside from 2 run-offs in Louisiana-- between 2 Republicans in the 3rd district and between a Democrat and a Republican in the 4th district (Boustany and Fleming both having given up their House seats for unsuccessful Senate runs)-- there's only one House race still undecided: CA-49 where tens of thousands of votes are still being counted to determine whether incumbent Darrell Issa (R) or challenger Doug Applegate (D) will represent the suburban San Diego district. Only 4,000 votes separate them and the most recent batch of counted ballots has narrowed the total slightly in Applegate's favor.

Interestingly, the vote is still too close to call not just in CA-49's congressional race but in CA-49's presidential race and in presidential outcomes in 25 other congressional districts around the country. Three House districts in Arizona (McSally's, Sinema's and the Kirkpatrick district that was won by fake-Democrat Tom O'Halleran) may have been won by Trump or by Clinton. The count goes on. In California it's 8 seats (Issa's, Ami Bera's, Jeff Denham's, David Valadao's, Steve Knight's, Raul Ruiz's, Mimi Walters' and Dana Rohrabacher's). There are 4 Illinois districts where the contest between Trump and Clinton remain uncalled: Lipinski's, Roskam's, Bustos' and Hultgren's. There are 3 district's in New Jersey they're still counting: Garrett's (which is now Gottheimer's), Leonard Lance's and Rodney Frelinghuysen's. Others: Erik Paulsen's district in Minnesota, the Vegas seat Jacky Rosen just won in Nevada, the old Steve Israel Long Island North Shore district that was won by Democrat Tom Suozzi, Kurt Shrader's district in Oregon, 2 suburban Philly districts, Pat Meehan's and Ryan Costello's, Will Hurd's in Texas and Dave Reichert's swingy Washington state district.

Not counting those still-uncalled districts, these are the ones where voters split their tickets and voted for one party's presidential candidate and the other party's congressional candidate. (There are 6 districts where voters went for a Republican for Congress and Hillary for president and there are 8 districts where voters went for a Democrat for Congress and for Trump.)
CO-06- Mike Coffman (R) and Hillary
FL-26- Carlos Curbelo (R) and Hillary
FL-27- Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) and Hillary
IA-02- Dave Loebsack (D) and Trump
KS-03- Kevin Yoder (R) and Hillary
MN-01- Tim Walz (D) and Trump
MN-07- Collin Peterson (D) and Trump
MN-08- Rick Nolan (D) and Trump
NH-01- Carol Shea-Porter (D) and Trump
NY-18- Sean Patrick Maloney (D) and Trump
NY-24- John Katko (R) and Hillary
PA-17- Matt Cartwright (D) and Trump
VA-10- Barbara Comstock (R) and Hillary
WI-03- Ron Kind (D) and Trump
Republicans managed to win one Democratic seat, Blue Dog Brad Ashford's in Omaha (although he has the worst voting record of any Democrat in Congress and voted with the Republicans far more than with the Democrats so... better off without him). Democrats needed to take 30 Republican seats to win back the House and it was widely thought that they would win between 12 and 20. But they didn't come close. Below is a list of all the new (and newish) members who will be sworn in in January. The bolded names represent a party switch. The Democrats only won 9 Republican seats, a disastrous outcome, which could change to 10 if Applegate beats Issa. Pelosi blames James Comey for how terribly her incompetent DCCC performed and will soon be dancing around with Ben Ray Lujan declaring how brilliant he is for not losing even more races.
AZ-01- Blue Dog (ex-Republican) Tom O'Halleran replaces New Dem Ann Kirkpatrick
AZ-05- Andy Biggs replaces Matt Salmon
CA-17- Corrupt conservaDem Ro Khanna replaces progressive Mike Honda
CA-20- Jimmy Panetta replaces Sam Farr
CA-24- New Dem Salud Carbajal replaces New Dem Lois Capps
CA-44- Nanette Barragan replaces Janice Hahn
CA-46- Blue Dog Lou Correa replaces Blue Dog Loretta Sanchez
DE-AL- Lisa Blunt Rochester replaces New Dem John Carney
FL-01- Matt Gaetz replaces Jeff Miller
FL-02- Republican Neal Dunn replaces Blue Dog Gwen Graham
FL-04- John Rutherford replaces Ander Crenshaw
FL-05- ConservaDem Al Lawson replaces progressive Democrat Corrine Brown
FL-07- Blue Dog Stephanie Murphy replaces Republican John Mica
FL-09- New Dem Darren Soto replaces progressive Alan Grayson
FL-10- New Dem Val Demings replaces Republican Daniel Webster
FL-11- Daniel Webster replaces Rich Nugent

FL-13- Charlie Crist replaces Republican David Jolly
FL-18- Republican Brian Mast replaces New Dem Patrick Murphy
FL-19- Francis Rodney replaces Curt Clawson
GA-03- Drew Ferguson replaces Lynn Westmoreland
HI-01- New Dem Colleen Hanabusa replaces progressive Mark Takei
IL-08- Raja Krishnamoorthi replaces Tammy Duckworth
IL-10- Blue Dog Brad Schneider replaces Republican Bob Dold
IN-03- Jim Banks replaces Marlin Stutzman
IN-09- Trey Hollingsworth replaces Todd Young
KS-01- Roger Marshall replaces Tim Huelskamp
KY01- James Comer replaces Ed Whitfield
MD-04- Anthony Brown replaces Donna Edwards
MD-08- Jamie Raskin replaces Chris Van Hollen
MI-01- Jack Bergman replaces Dan Benishek
MI-10- Paul Mitchell replaces Candice Miller
MN-02- Jason Lewis replaces John Kline
NE-02- Republican Don Bacon replaces Blue Dog Brad Ashford
NV-03- Democrat Jacky Rosen replaces Republican Joe Heck
NV-04- Democrat Ruben Kihuen replaces Republican Cresent Hardy
NH-01- Democrat Carol Shea-Porter replaces Republican Frank Guinta
NJ-05- Blue Dog Josh Gottheimer replaces Republican Scott Garrett
NY-03- Democrat Tom Suozzi replaces Blue Dog Steve Israel
NY-13- Adriano Espaillat replaces Charlie Rangel
NY-19- John Faso replaces Chris Gibson
NY-22- Claudia Tenney replaces Richard Hanna
NC-13- Ted Budd replaces (Renee Ellmers)
PA-08- Brian Fitzpatrick replaces Michael Fitzpatrick
PA-16- Lloyd Smucker replaces Joe Pitts
TN-08- David Castoff replaces Stephen Fincher
TX-15- Vicente Gonzalez replaces Ruben Hinojosa
TX-19- Jodey Arrington replaces Randy Neugebauer
VA-02- Scott Taylor replaces Scott Rigell
VA-04- Democrat Don McEachin replaces Republican Randy Forbes
VA-05- Tom Garrett replaces Robert Hurt
WA-07- Pramila Jayapal replaces Jim McDermott
WI-08- Mike Gallagher replaces Reid Ribble
WY-AL- Liz Cheney replaces Cynthia Lummis
So did the DCCC at least come "close" in any of the races where they spent big bucks? Let's count "big bucks" as anything over a million dollars and let's count "come close" to a loss with 45% or more. These are the DCCC big money races with the results:
PA-08- $7,238,618- Steve Santarsiero- 45.5%
NV-03- $6,850,028- Jackie Rosen won
FL-26- $6,101,294- Joe Garcia- 41.2%
VA-10- $6,068,688- LuAnn Bennett- 47.1%
TX-23- $5,301,699- Pete Gallego- 46.8%
CA-10- $4,708,313- Michael Eggman 47.6%
NV-04- $4,516,112- Ruben Kihuen won
CO-06- $4,970,827- Morgan Carroll- 42.4%
FL-07- $4,437,951- Stephanie Murphy won
NJ-05- $4,090,077- Josh Gottheimer won
ME-02- $4,035,982- Emily Cain- 45.1%
NY-22- $3,563,474- Kim Myers- 40.4%
MN-03- $3,783,284- Terri Bonoff- 43.1%
CA-49- $3,231,961- Doug Applegate N/A
IA-03- $3,197,753- Jim Mowrer- 39.8%
CA-25- $3,176,482- Bryan Caforio- 45.7%
AZ-01- $3,001,713- Tom O'Halleran won
MN-02- $2,837,602- Angie Craig- 45.2%
CO-03- $2,920,096- Gail Schwartz- 40.8%
FL-13- $2,553,435- Charlie Crist won
MI-01- $2,482,393- Lon Johnson- 39.7%
NY-19- $2,404,546- Zephyr Teachout- 45.3%
CA-21- $2,000,462- Emilio Huerta- 41.4%
IL-10- $1,983,222- Brad Schneider won
CA-24- $1,658,266- Salud Carbajal won
IA-01- $1,466,452- Monica Vernon- 46.1%
NY-24- $1,428,213- Colleen Deacon- 39%
IN-09- $1,403,035- Shelli Yoder- 40.5%
KS-03- $1,351,966- Jay Sidie- 40.6%
NY-01- $1,069,507- Anna Throne Holst- 41%

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At 6:29 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

IS there any truth to this? Democrats have one final shot to flip a Senate seat

Kim Kaufman


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