Sunday, April 03, 2016

State Of The Race: Wisconsin, New York, Pennsylvania


This morning CBS put out YouGov tracking polls for Wisconsin, New York and Pennsylvania, three big states with a combined 208 delegates at stake for the Republicans and 597 delegates for the Democrats. Wisconsin's primary is this Tuesday. New York's is 2 weeks later (April 19) and Pennsylvania voters come up to bat a week after New York on April 26.

OK, first the easy part-- the horserace stuff. Wisconsin first:
Republican winner-take-all primary

Cruz- 43%
Trump- 37%
Kasich- 18%

Democratic primary

Bernie- 49%
Hillary- 47%
New York is the next big prize for each party:

Trump- 52%
Cruz- 21%
Kasich- 20%

Democrats' closed primary:

Hillary- 53%
Bernie- 43%
And finally, Pennsylvania, the biggest of 5 northeastern states voting on April 26,

Trump- 47%
Cruz- 29%
Kasich- 22%
They didn't poll for the Democratic primary. Now let's get into some of the more interesting questions that were asked of Republican voters:

1- For each of these candidates, please say if you feel they are honest and trustworthy, or not?


Trump- Honest 42%, Dishonest 58%
Cruz- 61%, Dishonest 39%
Kasich- 69%, Dishonest 31%

New York:

Trump- Honest 60%, Dishonest 40%
Cruz- 43%, Dishonest 57%
Kasich- 69%, Dishonest 31%


Trump- Honest 56%, Dishonest 44%
Cruz- 51%, Dishonest 49%
Kasich- 73%, Dishonest 27%

2- Which candidate will do best at defeating Hillary in November?


Trump- 42%
Cruz- 39%
Kasich- 19%

New York:

Trump- 59%
Cruz- 19%
Kasich- 22%


Trump- 56%
Cruz- 25%
Kasich- 19%

That's amazing since it probably points up how out of touch the voters are with the polls that show Kasich is the best bet to beat Hillary, by far, where as Cruz has a chance and Trump has virtually no chance at all (at least as of now). This mirrors low-info Democratic voters who don't understand that Bernie is the far more electable candidate and would beat any of the Republicans and do far better against any of them than Hillary does. Three more questions for Republicans in each state:

Wisconsin Republicans

New York Republicans

Pennsylvania Republicans

Tragic that CBS is still waiting for a press release before adding Paul Ryan into the polling even though even they know he's the probable nominee. Democratic voters in Wisconsin and New York were asked if they felt the two candidates are honest and trustworthy or not. Among Wisconsinites, 81% of Democrats said Bernie is honest and 5% said he isn't. Hillary didn't fare as well. Only 56% think she's honest and trustworthy and 24% are aware she isn't. Among New Yorkers 73% find Bernie honest and trustworthy and 8% don't. Only 52% of New York Democrats are foolish enough to describe Hillary as honest and trustworthy, while 28% were smart enough to understand that she's basically an untrustworthy liar. She may be less horrible than Trump or Cruz or Kasich or Ryan but she's still a political hack who doesn't tell the truth.

By the way, among Wisconsin Dems, 54% want more progressive policies than Obama's, 39% want the same and 7% want less progressive policies. And among New York Dems, 52% want more progressive policies, 41% are satisfied with Obama's and, just like in Wisconsin, 7% want less progressive policies. There is only one way to prevent less progressive policies and that would be nominating and electing Bernie and a more progressive Congress, both of which can be accomplished if enough people chip in here:

Goal Thermometer

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At 9:58 AM, Blogger Unknown said...

Check last sentence for error. Thanks for your work!

At 9:58 AM, Blogger Unknown said...

Check last sentence for error. Thanks for your work!


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