Saturday, December 26, 2015

Poor Jeb And Marco Are Being Taken To The Cleaners By Self-Serving Professional Campaign Operatives


On Friday, we noted that the more poor Jeb spends on his mundane TV ads, the lower his support is driven. He doesn't read DWT and it certainly not what the 15% rake-off crew is telling him.

Because the poor fella has the most conventional and stultified mind of anyone running this cycle, he's decided that what his failing campaign needs is to spend more of his idiot-donors' money on more ineffectual ads... and in New Hampshire, where the barrage he's already run has worked least. Boston's Republican newspaper reports that the Jebster SuperPAC plans to dump another $14 million into incredibly expensive ads-- "a clear sign that Bush operatives, despite criticism over already spending more than $35 million nationally on commercials for just 4 percent in the polls, are doubling down on a strategy of massive TV buys." Meanwhile, one of the billionaire-funded SuperPACs funded that supports Bush-lite is spending another $6.1 million, Christie's desperate campaign is spending $4.9 and even poor Kasich is in for $1.4, presumably to beat up on Herr Trumpf some more.
But the political bombardment-- especially in a cycle with so many candidates on the ballot-- may only make it harder for campaigns to stand out, said Tobe Berkovitz of Boston University, a former political media buyer.

“Unless you come out with a really good ad, most of this is like water off the back of a duck,” Berkovitz said. “You get to the point of sheer tonnage that it’s hard to break through the clutter.”

Bush, who’s struggled to shine with his debate skills, appears to be banking on TV to better convey his message.

Bush’s independent super PAC Right to Rise has already reserved two 30-second ads during the Super Bowl-- which will be played just two days before the New Hampshire primary-- on Boston CBS affiliate WBZ at a total cost of $600,000. Right to Rise has also blocked off ad space in Boston during the NHL Winter Classic, the Golden Globes and multiple NFL playoff games in January.

Bush will also have a huge presence on New Hampshire powerhouse affiliate WMUR.

Both the Bush campaign and his super PAC have reserved a combined 253 TV spots on WMUR at a cost of $459,830 the week before the New Hampshire primary, according to filings.

That includes 10 ads a day from 5 to 8 p.m. on weeknights on WMUR during, among others, local news, ABC World News Tonight, Chronicle NH and Inside Edition.

...Andy Smith of the University of New Hampshire suggested there’s a simple “untold” motivator for buying Super Bowl ads-- the commission (typically 15 percent) the media firms get from each sale.

“Fifteen percent of a couple-million-dollar ad during the Super Bowl is a whole lot better than 15 percent of an ad on Saturday morning on WMUR,” Smith said. “There’s money to be made by people running the campaigns, and you can’t forget about that.”
Reminder: Cruz, the surging second-plcae candidate has spent $1,253,726 in ads and scored 18% among Republican voters in the most recent national polling. Jeb is in 7th place with 3% after spending $38,109,644 (nearly $5 million of which went towards rake-offs from professional campaign hucksters who, apparently, aren't very good at their jobs) and Rubio, who has slipped to 10% has spent $17,799,911. Herr Trumpf has spent virtually nothing for his 39% first place position but the value of the free media that is being lavished on him is certainly worth more than Jeb's and Marco's ad budgets combined. Perhaps the two of them should start tossing around words like "putz," "fakakta," "drek," "shtoop" and start referring to Herr Trumpf as a "meshugana," a "beheima" and an "alter kocker." It would probably get them some attention.

The Chaos Candidate shows how future GOP primaries will be waged

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