Tuesday, September 02, 2014

Only One Thing Can Save House Dems From DCCC Incompetence-- Even Worse Republican Incompetence


Lame and lamer

This morning Alex Isenstadt's column in Politico, Homestretch made the case that the Republicans are blowing their chance to make the mammoth gains in the House many predicted they could. Despite the lamest and least competent DCCC chair in the history of the universe who has no strategy except a failed collection of tactics, the Republicans aren't in position to take advantage of their best moment to move in for the kill. "Tepid fundraising, underperforming candidates and a lousy party brand," he wrote, "are threatening to deprive House Republicans of the sweeping 2014 gains that some top party officials have been predicting this year. No one now expects them to net the 10-12 seats once predicted and they will probably only gain half that. If they can't beat Steve Israel, they can't beat anyone-- and it's unlikely the Democrats will ever have as incompetent a DCCC chair again. Isenstadt says there's a Beltway consensus forming round 4 points and that 3 of them bode poorly for the GOP:
Republicans are convinced they’ll be significantly outspent by Democrats-- in contrast to the 2010 midterm election when the GOP overwhelmed their opponents with an avalanche of cash.

GOP strategists are particularly worried about the performance of a handful of candidates who are well positioned to win but seen as running poor campaigns. Three candidates are mentioned repeatedly: Florida Rep. Steve Southerland, Nebraska Rep. Lee Terry and Virginia Republican Barbara Comstock.

Nearly a year after the government shutdown, Republicans privately say the party’s tattered public image is dragging down candidates in key races.

Despite the GOP’s troubles, Democrats remain anxious that the political environment could deteriorate still further before Election Day. They say two of their vulnerable incumbents, New Hampshire Rep. Carol Shea-Porter and Illinois Rep. Bill Enyart, may soon be lost causes and are scrambling to prevent that list from growing.

The GOP’s House prospects have fluctuated throughout the election cycle. For much of last year, it was widely assumed Republicans would pick up roughly the half-dozen seats they now look poised to gain, but President Barack Obama’s troubles this year raised hopes among party leaders they could do significantly better than that. As recently as July, National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Greg Walden was quoted as saying Democrats faced a “wave” and were about to get “blown away.”

…Democrats have gradually narrowed their focus to protecting jeopardized incumbents and are likely to seriously invest in only the dozen or so candidates seen as realistic contenders for Republican-held seats. At the start of the cycle, for instance, national Democrats had been talking up the candidacies of Ann Callis, a former county judge running for an Illinois seat, and Amanda Renteria, a former Capitol Hill aide seeking a California seat. Neither candidate is now seen as likely to win, and neither is receiving as much attention.
But Callis and Renteria aren't the only Red-to-Blue candidates the DCCC has already kicked to the curb. The DCCC and it's House Majority PAC have committed to spending big bucks for only a small handful of challengers. These are the only (non-incumbent) candidates they've reserved TV time for:
Jackie McPherson (AR-01)- $625,000
Michael Eggman (CA-10)- $1.1 million
Pete Aguilar (CA-31)- $625,000
Andrew Romanoff (CO-06)- $1,996,000
Gwen Graham (FL-02)- $785,000
Staci Appel (IA-03)- $1,453,000
Jim Mowrer (IA-05)- $670,000
Ann Callis (IL-13)- $1,753,000 (cancelled? only $21,700 spent)
Jerry Cannon (MI-01)- $940,000
Pam Byrnes (MI-07), and Bobby McKenzie (MI-11)- $1,140,000
Brad Ashford (NE-02)- $215,000
Aimee Belgard (NJ-03)- $1,290,000
Domenic Recchia (NY-11)- $950,000
Aaron Woolf (NY-21)- $820,000
Martha Robertson (NY-23)- $465,000
Kevin Strouse (PA-08) and Manan Trivedi (PA-06)- $3.1 million
John Foust (VA-10)- $3,537,000
Red-to-Blue candidates without DCCC ad buys: Patrick Henry Hayes (AR-02), James Lee Witt (AR-04), Pat Murphy (IA-01), Emily Cain (ME-02), John Lewis (MT-AL), Rocky Lara (NM-02), Erin Bilbray (NV-03), Kathleen Rice (NY-04), Nick Casey (WV-02) and, of course, Sean Eldridge (NY-19), who at least got boxes and boxes of bagels and cream cheese from Steve Israel. Disappeared entirely from the Red-to-Blue page are Mike Obermeuller (MN-02), Jennifer Garrison (OH-06), Michael Wager (OH-14), Joe Bock (IN-02), Elisabeth Jensen (KY-06), Clay Aiken (NC-02), Suzanne Patrick (VA-02), Bill Hughes (NJ-02), Glen Gainer (WV-01), and George Sinner (ND-AL).

Grassroots candidates who built their own substantial field operations aren't dependent on the vicissitudes of the DCCC bosses. They can win their campaigns without the massive ad buys that didn't do Alex Sink a bit of good in Steve Israel's disastrous FL-13 special election. And that's exactly what Blue America candidates Kelly Westlund and Paul Clements, running, respectively, for Wisconsin and Michigan seats occupied by Sean Duffy and Fred Upton, have been doing. Neither gets the time of day from Steve Israel… and both are in winnable districts, far more winnable than some of the red toilets he's flushing away millions of dollars. If you'd like to help Paul and Kelly and the other Blue America House candidates build their field operations into wins for November, here's the place.

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At 5:32 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

GOP vileness why Clinton won twice. Dubya doubled down on that vileness, else Obama would be a footnote like Jesse Jackson. Now, we expect Hillary -vile as SHE is- to still be the better option over some Repub.

When do we get someone to vote FOR?

@neoconned on Twitter


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