Social Media-- More Profoundly Impactful Than You Think

The worst thing I can think of in terms of the impact of social media on society is portrayed in the short film (above) by Werner Herzog, "From One Second To The Next."

A study by Joseph DiGrazia, Karissa McKelvey, Johan Bollen and Fabio Rojas at the University of Indiana illustrates how Twitter conversations can be used to predict election outcomes, whether they are determiniative or not. Rojas, an associate professor of sociology at Indiana State, explained what they found in an OpEd for the Washington Post on Sunday.

Digital democracy is here. We no longer passively watch our leaders on television and register our opinions on Election Day. Modern politics happens when somebody comments on Twitter or links to a campaign through Facebook. In our hyper-networked world, anyone can say anything, and it can be read by millions.

This new world will undermine the polling industry. For nearly a century, conventional wisdom has argued that we can only truly know what the public thinks about an issue if we survey a random sample of adults. An entire industry is built on this view. Nearly every serious political campaign in the United States spends thousands, even millions, of dollars hiring campaign consultants who conduct these polls and interpret the results.

Digital democracy will put these campaign professionals out of work. New research in computer science, sociology and political science shows that data extracted from social media platforms yield accurate measurements of public opinion. It turns out that what people say on Twitter or Facebook is a very good indicator of how they will vote.

How good? In a paper to be presented Monday, co-authors Joseph DiGrazia, Karissa McKelvey, Johan Bollen and I show that Twitter discussions are an unusually good predictor of U.S. House elections. Using a massive archive of billions of randomly sampled tweets stored at Indiana University, we extracted 542,969 tweets that mention a Democratic or Republican candidate for Congress in 2010. For each congressional district, we computed the percentage of tweets that mentioned these candidates. We found a strong correlation between a candidate’s “tweet share” and the final two-party vote share, especially when we account for a district’s economic, racial and gender profile. In the 2010 data, our Twitter data predicted the winner in 404 out of 406 competitive races.

Why does this happen? We believe that Twitter and other social media reflect the underlying trend in a political race that goes beyond a district’s fundamental geographic and demographic composition. If people must talk about you, even in negative ways, it is a signal that a candidate is on the verge of victory. The attention given to winners creates a situation in which all publicity is good publicity.

This finding is remarkable because it doesn’t depend on exactly what people say or who says it. We measured only the total discussion and estimated each candidate’s share. It is this relative level of discussion that matters for tracking public opinion in electoral contests. Furthermore, social media data mimic what polls measure. For example, in Ohio’s 3rd Congressional District, we found that Republican Mike Turner got 65.4 percent of his district’s tweet share. In the final election, he got 68.1 percent of the two-party vote. The tweet prediction was off by 2.7 percentage points — a figure that is within the margin of error of any poll.

This finding has profound implications for the democratic process. There are many nations that remain mired in poverty and do not have the infrastructure required for extensive polling. Furthermore, these nations often have governments that are suspicious of polling and try to suppress it. For these reasons, it is very hard to monitor elections. In contrast, as long as citizens have access to the Internet, they can talk about their views in a less-restricted manner. The “grassroots” buzz found in social media can be studied, and it will reveal how elections are conducted and if the state is respecting human rights. And as with U.S. elections, even if the people who use social media are not completely representative of the public, the amount of attention paid to an issue is an indicator of what is happening in society. Important events generate scrutiny that can be measured and studied.

Social media analysis is also important for elections in the United States. Polling favors the established candidates because it is relatively expensive. In contrast, social media analysis is cheap. Anyone with programming skills can write a program that will harvest tweets, sort them for content and analyze the results. This can be done with nothing more than a laptop computer.

Please follow the Blue America-endorsed candidates. We have two for governor: Heather Mizeur (D-MD)- @heathermizeur and Barbara Buono (D-NJ)- @BuonoforNJGov and this is the list of congressional candidates we've endorsed so far:

Alan Grayson (D-FL)- @AlanGrayson
Lee Rogers (D-CA)- @LeeCRogers
Nick Ruiz (D-FL)- @NRIII
Carl Sciortino (D-MA)- @carlsciortino
Daylin Leach (D-PA)- @DaylinLeach
Rush Holt (D-NJ)- @RushHolt
Raul Grijalva (D-AZ)- @RepRaulGrijalva

Keith Ellison (D-MN)- @KeithEllison

Brian Schatz (D-HI)- @SenBrianSchatz
Jay Stamper (D-SC)- @Jay_Stamper
Jeff Merkley (D-OR)- @SenJeffMerkley
Ed Markey (D-MA)- @EdMarkey
Al Franken (D-MN)- @AlFranken

And this growing influence of social media on the workings of politics isn't just true in the U.S., of course. Al Jazeera carried a fascinating report about how Twitter forced Mococco's dictator, who calls himself Mohammed VI, to reverse a decision pardoning a child rapist.

The pardoning of a paedophile by Morocco's king last month ignited a public outcry, causing some who had been apolitical to demand radical changes in the country and a serious reform of its justice system.

"This woke up my conscience," said Khalil El Abbadi, a 34-year-old engineer from Casablanca. "Voicing our beliefs has become an obligation and a necessity."

The rare show of outrage came after the release of Daniel Galvan Vina, a Spanish citizen convicted of raping and filming 11 Moroccan children. Moroccans from across the social spectrum, many of whom did not belong to any political movement, publicly voiced their outrage over the pardon, prompting King Mohammed VI to reverse his decision.

Abbadi protested alongside many of his countrymen-- the first time he has dared to openly show his indignation against the ruler. He said that following the news on Twitter exposed him to realities that he was not aware of, that were missing in the traditional media. He empathised with the families of the victims and weighed the damage to the nation's reputation.

"I had a feeling of rage, of humiliation and above all, a sense of being a second-class citizen," he said. "In this country, the dignity of the citizens is not the priority of the state."

The Moroccan king pardoned 48 prisoners on the annual Throne Day in July as a courtesy gesture a few days after the Spanish monarch, King Juan Carlos, visited the North African country. Galvan Vina was among those released. But the Moroccan media, the government and most political parties remained largely silent about the decision, while protests exploded across Morocco.

One demonstration in Rabat, the capital, was violently suppressed by the authorities. But by then, after days of pressure, the king decided to reverse course and revoked the pardon. Galvan Vina was swiftly arrested in Spain and now awaits a decision on extradition proceedings to Morocco.

While the pardon may seem to have been reversed simply to keep the peace, analysts say it signals a significant shift in Morocco's societal values and has shaken the sense of the king's infallibility. This unprecedented direct dialogue between the king and the people in Morocco has also revealed weaknesses in state institutions, a topic that had been completely absent from public debate.

"The king had to release a statement justifying his actions," said Abdellah Tourabi, historian and editor of the monthly magazine Zamane. "This non-structured movement without an ideology, advocating for equality and rejecting authoritarianism, snatched justifications from the king... These people will be watching and already showed their capacity of mobilisation."

The king called the pardon a mistake, and said he did not know a paedophile was among those given clemency. In a statement about the decision, the king hinted that the pardoning procedure would be reformed-- something protesters have been demanding, due to the process' lack of transparency and rumours that pardons may be bought.

...So far, many Moroccans seem prepared to keep pressure on the king and his regime. "I want to live in a country where the interests of the citizens are at the centre of the concerns of the state," said Abbadi, the Casablanca-based engineer.

He is not the only one who will be taking action and watching. Using Twitter, a user named "Lambertiste" wrote: "In the future, I wish good luck to paedophiles and lax judges. Impunity is over. Each case will be followed, closely."