New Day Dawning In War-Ravaged Mali Today? I'd Wait Before Buying A Ticket To Timbuktu

A Muslim Keita dynasty ruled Mali from 1235 until the Empire collapsed with the death of Mahmud IV in 1610. As a stamp collector in my teenage days I recall a Keita ruling Mali when it first gained independence in 1960. That was Modibo Keita and I don't think he was part of the royal lineage. In fact, he was a socialist. In 1968 he was overthrown in a military coup and imprisoned, where he died 9 years later.

And that brings us to Ibrahim Boubacar Keita-- IBK-- who is about to become the new Malian president. He was Prime Minister from 1994-2000 and and President of the National Assembly of Mali from 2002 to 2007. No idea if he was related to Modo-- let alone Mahmud IV-- but he came in a strong first in the presidential elections last month, but missed an outright majority among over two dozen candidates. He won 39.79% and the second place finisher, Soumaila Cisse won 19.7%. Today is run-off day and Keita is expected to win big. Almost all the losing candidates have endorsed him.

This West African country's pivotal election is aimed at unlocking some $4 billion in aid promised by international donors after more than a year of turmoil including a coup, followed by an Islamic insurgency that swallowed up a region the size of Afghanistan and a subsequent French-led military intervention that brought thousands of foreign soldiers to Malian soil. The chaos has scattered hundreds of thousands of people-- some of whom are casting ballots from refugee camps in neighbouring countries.

Keita, who is running on a slogan of "for the honour of Mali," pulled in 39.79 per cent of first round votes, while former finance minister Soumaila "Soumi" Cisse won 19.70 per cent. It's a reversal of fortune from 2002, when the two ran for president but Cisse, not Keita, made it to the second round.

Keita's resume also includes a 2007 presidential bid as well as a wide array of government positions-- foreign minister, prime minister and speaker of the National Assembly.

"He has this reputation as somebody who is strict. He doesn't shy away from a fight," said Bruce Whitehouse, a Bamako-based Mali specialist who teaches at Lehigh University. "He's this sort of old-school politician who knows how to get things done, and knows how to build alliances. I don't think anybody sees him as any kind of visionary or innovator but he may just be sort of the man who can hold things together in some basic way."

Keita, 68, has been nicknamed Kankeletigui or "a man of his word," lending a sense of reassurance and stability to the country that has been in a state of upheaval since early 2012.

Colleagues describe Keita as a longtime statesman who values protocol and formality within government. As foreign minister, he once admonished a public servant for showing up to his office with his top shirt buttons left open. Government buildings, he said, were a place for suits and ties.

Word spread and the next day everyone showed up at the ministry in buttoned up attire.

"IBK is a proud man and someone who enforces the symbol of the state," said Mohamed Sleimane, who worked with him in the 1980s at a non-governmental organization.

Keita is seen as the candidate of choice among the junta leaders who overthrew Mali's democratically elected president in March 2012. Although they ultimately handed over power to a transitional civilian government, the coup leaders are believed to still wield considerable influence.

...Keita has won little support from Tuareg separatists in Mali's distant north, some 950 miles (1,500 kilometres) from the capital, Bamako. Rebels tried to block his campaign stop in the provincial capital of Kidal, driving pickup trucks onto the runway and later pelting his parked jet with stones.

But there are hopes that Keita will have the negotiating skills needed ahead of talks with northern rebels from the National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad, the name they have given to the region.

The Tuareg rebel group signed a reconciliation with a rival rebel group late Friday.

"I am supporting IBK because he has said that he will put together a national dialogue before making a decision on the crisis, while Soumaila Cisse has already declared that he will not give autonomy to northern Mali," said NMLA official Mohamed Ousmane Ag Medoune.

If Keita does win, his strong personal profile could also help solidify his mandate, said Paul Melly, an African affairs specialist at the London-based policy institute Chatham House.

"Those who have talked to him say that he does recognize that Mali requires fundamental change and he does have the personal clout to lead such a reform," he said. "But the challenges are huge; rebuilding popular trust in the political class will not be easy. Much will depend on whether he can form an effective ministerial team and deliver real improvements in the lives of Malians."

Keita's first order of business be will right up his alley: normalization, starting with relations between the central government and the Tuareg rebels in the Sahara. The Tuaregs-- who are basically brutal, primitive savages who hold slaves-- want to get as much autonomy as they can for their region. The rest of the country-- who the Tuaregs consider good candidates for slavery-- resent them and don't want to grant them any more autonomy. And then there's Seydou Keita, the country's star football player: