Friday, March 27, 2009

Old Whine In New Bottles-- Tedisco Campaign Stumbles And Falls Behind


Is Tedisco's nosedive all part of Steele's grand strategy?

Everyone thought the congressional race in New York's Republican-leaning 20th CD (PVI is R+3) would be a slam dunk for Jim Tedisco, the Minority Leader of the New York State Assembly. The Democrats came up with a totally unknown, cut-and-paste Blue Dog, some guy from Missouri named Scott Miller or Scott Murphy or something like that... just some self-funder with no real shot. Early polls showed Tedisco absolutely swamping him. But after weeks and weeks of inept, negative campaign ads from the Republicans and, especially, from extremist GOP front groups trying to turn the election into a referendum about President Obama's policies, polls started to shift away from Tedisco and towards Miller or Murphy or whoever the guy from Missouri is. Today, with just 4 days to go before election day, Miller or Murphy has pulled ahead and now leads Tedisco by 4 points.

What happened? It can't be the tepid ads the DNC started running, first with Biden and then with Obama tepidly endorsing Miller (or Murphy; I should look it up since he's probably going to be a Blue Dog congressman voting to sabotage Obama's programs who I'll be denouncing for the next couple of years). I have a feeling it was just the sheer ineptness of the Grand Obstructionist Party (AKA- The Party of No).

Tedisco's Republican colleagues haven't done him any good. And I don't just mean Michael Steele's strategic disaster of a campaign, which even Tedisco himself denounced. Republicans on the national stage look mighty clownish these days. Just yesterday, the House Republican leadership horribly botched an attempt to offer an alternative budget. It turned into a p.r. nightmare as they all stumbled all over each other and got laughed at by the national media.

With far right sad sack Mike Pence rushing to grab the spotlight, Paul Ryan was thrown under the bus before he could explain what the clowns were trying to accomplish. By the end of their news conference, everyone was laughing loudly as they dug a deeper and deeper hole for themselves. Ryan's explanation: "The problem is that somewhere along the line, someone got the mistaken impression that we were going to roll out a budget alternative today." How could that have happened? John Boehner, Ryan's boss: "Two nights ago the president said, 'We haven't seen a budget yet out of Republicans.' Well, it's just not true because-- Here it is, Mr. President." You know, people in NY-20 apparently have TVs and radios and read newspapers. They may be unsure about what they do want, but they sure know it isn't more of what we just experienced under George Bush and this crew of stale holdovers and ritual obstructionists.

The local paper, while pointing out that President Obama enjoys a high favorability rating among NY-20 voters (65%), has a less nationalized perspective on why Tedisco is losing, something that goes back to the chess master at the RNC:
Tedisco’s campaign is viewed by voters as more negative by a 44-25 percent margin, while Murphy’s campaign is seen as more positive by a 42-25 percent margin.

Forty-two percent of voters credit Murphy with waging the more positive campaign, compared to 25 percent who say that describes Tedisco. Similarly, by a 44-25 percent margin, voters say Tedisco has been running a more negative campaign than Murphy. Nearly one in five voters says it’s both candidates. More than two-thirds of Democrats say Murphy’s campaign is more positive and Tedisco’s more negative. Republicans see it more even, with 36 percent saying Murphy’s been more negative and 29 percent saying Tedisco. Independents say Tedisco’s more negative by 42-25 percent margin.

And NY-20 isn't the only constituency where Republican Party obstructionism is backfiring on the Party of No, the same way it did in 1934 when the Republicans tried to sink FDR's efforts to rescue the nation from the last depression right-wing ideology-run-amuck caused. At that time the Republicans saw their once mighty advantage in the Senate shrink by 10 more seats (after a shocking drubbing in 1932) to a pathetic rump: 25 Republican obstructionists left in the Senate. Even Harry Reid sees that the pattern this year is leading in exactly that direction again. Now new polling from Missouri shows that voters there aren't buying GOP snake-oil either.
Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) leads both of her potential Republican opponents in the race to replace retiring Sen. Kit Bond (R-Mo.), according to a new poll conducted by a GOP pollster.

Carnahan leads Rep. Roy Blunt (R) by a narrow 47 percent to 44 percent. The Democrat leads former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman by a wider 47 percent to 39 percent margin.

Is this what voters will be thinking about when they go to the polls? Looks that way.

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At 3:38 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Democratic Candidate Scott Murphy is using controversial Republican figures to get voters to come out to the polls on Tuesday. Let's see if the times union does it's job and asks Murphy about this.

Scott Murphy for Congress truth about bonuses

Scott Murphy for Congress tax problem

Scott Murphy for Congress against death penalty


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