HILLARY CLINTON READY TO END BID FOR THE PRESIDENCY
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I was never thrilled about all that baggage and trash around her-- the Terry McAuliffes, Mark Penns, Howard Wolfsons, Sandy Bergers, Richard Holbrookes-- but I've always harbored an affection for her and before the primary season really got under way I thought it was 50/50 between Obama and her in terms of who would make a better president. Even as her campaign turned more and more Rovian by the day, I always harbored a great deal of good will for Hillary herself and wouldn't have minded all that much if she wound up beating McCain instead of Obama. I suspect that Hillary Clinton would have made a decent president and even if Obama is 100 times as inspiring and 100 times as charismatic, the idea of shattering the ultimate glass ceiling for more than half the citizens of this country, is pretty inspiring in and of itself. But that baggage and trash...
Anyway, last night one of the CNN talking heads-- it was on in another room so I was just listening while blogging-- started talking about how two of her confidantes had said that she wants to be Obama's running mate. I think Obama should get to pick his own running mate and I wonder, as some wag on CNN did, if the "dream ticket" wouldn't turn into a nightmare ticket. That'll be his call though. If he wants my advise, he'll go with benign Clintonista Wes Clark, at once reaching out to the "other side" and also shoring up his national security and military cred.
Over at HuffPo today, very well-connected Lawrence O'Donnell claims she's dropping out "by June 15." He claims a "senior campaign official and Clinton confidante" told him there would be a nominee by June 15 and that Hillary is a reasonable person. I guess we can assume that that last assurance means she doesn't plan to rip Obama's throat out. "Everything about our conversation implied," writes O'Connell, "that he had already had this reality-based discussion with Hillary."
Today Amy Sullivan in Time makes the case that Hillary no longer has a case to make. I guess that was the genesis of the tear in Bill Clinton's eye last night. It's pretty much over-- nearly as much as Vito Fossella's political career.
No matter how hard she and her steadfast backers try, the exit polling from Indiana and New Carolina are not going to help make the case for her going on. In order for Clinton to persuade superdelegates to back her over Obama, she needed to demonstrate that she was the less divisive candidate who could win over general election swing voters in states like Indiana. Her aggressive campaign, however, has led to a growing gap-- now between 15 and 20 points in Indiana and North Carolina-- in the perception that she has been more unfair in her attacks than Obama has.
Clinton's recent embrace of a "gas-tax holiday"-- an idea dismissed by others in her party as a bit of ineffective pandering-- also reinforced questions about her trustworthiness. In Indiana exit polls, a full quarter of Clinton's own supporters said that they did not think she was honest. Just as Obama suffered in Ohio for looking like he was too political on NAFTA, Clinton's position on the gas tax issue riled Indiana voters, who consistently raised it in conversations with reporters the weekend before the primary vote.
Perhaps the most disturbing indicator for Clinton was the fact that 15% of those who voted for her on Tuesday said they would not back her in November (7% of Obama voters said they would not support him in the general election). Some conservative commentators like Rush Limbaugh have urged Republicans in the remaining primary states to prolong the process by casting votes for Clinton, who they think would be an easier opponent for John McCain. Numbers like this, which some pundits claimed meant that Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos" helped put Clinton over the top in Indiana, are watched closely by superdelegates and do not ease their concerns about Clinton's electability.
In today's New Republic John Judis writes that the primary is over. She "might still run in West Virginia and Kentucky, which she'll win handily, but by failing to win Indiana decisively and by losing North Carolina decisively, she lost the argument for her own candidacy. She can't surpass Barack Obama's delegate or popular vote count. The question is no longer who will be the Democratic nominee, but whether Obama can defeat Republican John McCain in November. And the answer to that is still unclear. Obama is going to need Hillary now to undo some of the harm her campaign has done to Obama-- to make sure that at least Democrats know he didn't ever take any oaths on the Koran and that he isn't anti-American or Muslim or just a puppet of Jeremiah Wright.
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Labels: Democratic presidential race, Hillary
7 Comments:
She fought the good fight (well, not really) but it is now time. Leave with some dignity and while your campaign has not destroyed the party. We can forgive all if you do no more harm. Bye Now!!
Most of the facts that you cite here are incorrect. See Jerome's recent posts on why the gas tax was a winner for her. And the exit polls should give any SD's pause vis a vis white voters. What she did lose was younger women and some indies. And she had no way to make up for the 400k early NC voters. As for Heath Shuler, you wanna stack him against Mister One-State George McGovern?
The bottom line, though, is that HRC could not persuade more Democratic voters that she was more electable, and they will regret it come the fall. Paul Begala put it best--we can't win with just eggheads and AA's.
A few things...
I think she'll stay in until June 3, if only to try to raise enough money to retire her campaign debt.
She will NEVER be Obama's running mate, and for anyone to think so is just absurd. Imagine being president, and having both Hillary AND Bill always under foot, trying to tell you the best way to do things. I'm not saying that Obama shouldn't consult with Clinton, or even consider either or both Clintons for his Cabinet. But as Vice president? No thanks.
And as for the fall, I don't think the right wing spin machine will work this year, for a variety of reasons I blog about. And if anyone thinks this will be a close election between Obama and McCain doesn't get that Obama isn't a DLC candidate. Howard dean is running the show at the DNC, and Obama's political people have demonstrated incredible instincts this year.
McCain doesn't stand a chance.
Milt
http://www.pleasecutthecrap.com
Howie, I love Wesley Clark. Still upset that he wouldn't bother to, you know, learn anything about domestic issues when he tried to run for President. He would be a great choice for Obama's VP. You're a genius.
Sad to hear that you hold an affection for a person who can not seem to be able to tell the truth.
That is the problem with the elite "progressives" a little thing like consistency of values does not apply to you.
One of the things I like about Obama is that he seems to be doing pretty well while staying clear of mainstream "progressive" bloggers.
I really like the trend of your writings but just can not understand how you fail to see how far flung many of your associations are.
Hillary can never be in a position that would end her up in the Presidency. She can not be trusted and is part of what Democrats need to rid themselves.
Exactly How well does anybody know Obama?? The Clintons have been around more than Obama, so of course it is easier to say that she can't be trusted or is a liar, which is what Obama uses to his advantage. He has a successful campaign. Successful campaigns do not guarentee successful presidencies. Hard workers do. And Hillary has exhausted herself campaigning. Barack Obama only "woos" many people with his "charisma". But Is He Working Hard?? I don't think so.
You said..."even if Obama is 100 times as inspiring and 100 times as charismatic, the idea of shattering the ultimate glass ceiling for more than half the citizens of this country, is pretty inspiring in and of itself."
Well, what do you know? You have just described the anti-Christ!
You're either a Republican or a person born during the riots of the 60's.
FYI, the race is far from over, there are millions of votes to go and many states, she is leading in WV by 2/3 of the vote.
Hillary will be our next president.
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