Friday, July 19, 2019

In General, Americans Are Not Fond Of The Political Class-- Especially Not Mitch McConnell

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Bevin (R-KY) is the least liked governor and McConnell (R-KY) is the least liked senator

The Economist ran a YouGov poll this week and, among other things, asked for favorables and unfavorables of the Democratic 2020 candidates: Here's the favorable ratings (+ in parentheses what percentage of people don't know who they are) for each candidate:
Biden- 42% (16%)
Bernie- 41% (16%)
Elizabeth Warren- 39% (23%)
Kamala Harris- 36% (28%)
Cory Booker- 33% (33%)
McKinsey Pete- 32% (38%)
Beto- 30% (33%)
Julian Castro- 28% (41%)
Amy Klobuchar- 27% (43%)
Kirsten Gillibrand- 26% (40%)
Andrew Yang- 23% (50%)
Tulsi- 20% (51%)
Bill de Blasio- 19% (42%)
Jay Inslee- 19% (59%)
Tim Ryan- 19% (56%)
Frackenlooper- 19% (55%)
Michael Bennet- 18% (63%)
Tom Steyer- 17% (57%)
Delaney- 17% (60%)
Marianne Williamson- 15% (56%)
Howard Schultz- 14% (57%)
Steve Bullock- 14% (67%)
Mike Gravel- 13% (68%)
Seth Moulton- 13% (67%)
Joe Sestak- 12% (68%)
Wayne Messam- 10% (72%)
But who are these people being interviewed for these polls? Have you ever thought about that? The Economist just describes them as U.S. adult citizens-- Democrats, Republicans, Independents... They aren't likely voters although 70% says they are registered to vote. 62% live in their own home or one owned by their family and 36% live in a rental. 28% describe themselves as liberals, 27% as moderates and 32% as conservatives. 38% never got more education than high school, 32% got some college, 19% are college grads and 11% did some post graduate work. 65% said religion is important in their lives and 35% said it isn't.

But is there more we can know about them? I think so. The 32nd question tells you an awful about who takes these kinds of polls-- and perhaps they are just like our fellow citizens. Draw your own conclusions:




And now a look at how high DISAPPROVAL is for the country's leaders. The numbers in parentheses are, basically, "who the hell is that?":
Señor Trumpanzee- 51% (5%)
Mitch McConnell- 49% (27%)
Nancy Pelosi- 48% (15%)
Mike Pence- 44% (16%)
Chuck Schumer- 44% (27%)
Kevin McCarthy- 32% (47%)
Democrats in Congress- 39%
Republicans in Congress- 32%
And one more-- the annual "which senators suck the worst" poll. Respondents are only asked about their own state's senators. And every year, the most hated senator in America-- by his own constituents-- is Mitch McConnell (R-KY). And this year is no different. 36% like him and a whopping 50% hope he gets hit by a truck in the next 5 seconds and is never heard from again. There aren't many senators who are underwater the way McConnell is (more of their constituents hating them than liking them. Here's the list:
McConnell (R-KY)- minus 14%
Bob Menendez (D-NJ)- minus 8%
Susan Collins (R-ME)- minus 3%
Thom Tillis (R-NC)- minus 2%
Roy Blunt (R-MO)- minus 2%
Meanwhile, there are only 17 senators with an over 50% favorability:
Bernie (I-VT)- +62%
Angus King (I-ME)- +62%
Pat Leahy (D-VT)- +61%
John Barrasso (R-WY)- +57%
John Hoeven (R-ND)- +57%
Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)- +56%
Mike Enzi (R-WY)- +54%
Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH)- +54%
John Thune (R-SD)- +54%
Ed Markey (D-MA)- +53%
Mitt Romney (R-UT)- +53%
Mike Rounds (R-SD)- +53%
Chris Coons (D-DE)- +52%
Maggie Hassan (D-NH)- +52
Brian Schatz (D-HI)- +52%
Jack Reed (D-RI)- +51%
I'd say this is the most important take-away from the study, because Collins is going to have a really tough reelection battle next year, perhaps one she probably can't win. Democrats and Independents have both turned against her far more than in previous cycles:



Last week PPP conducted a private (unreleased) poll to see how Colorado Democrats-- who have two native sons in the race-- are feeling about the presidential primary. It didn't go well for the native sons:
Status Quo Joe- 22%
Bernie- 19%
Elizabeth Warren- 15%
Frackenlooper- 7%
Michael Bennet- 5%
And one unrelated chart that I've been saving on my desktop all week. This one shows which presidential candidates-- from both parties-- got the most individual donors from Iowans so far. Bernie isn't only crushing Status Quo Joe; he's crushing Trump as well:



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Wednesday, June 19, 2019

Trump's Over-Hyped ABC News Interview Bombed-- Is No One Paying Attention To The Liar-In-Chief Anymore?

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Trump and ABC News expected a ratings bonanza for last Sunday's hour-long special with George Stephanopoulos. It sure wasn't Game of Thrones; instead it was a stinker. It came in 3rd in the time slot, with just 3.91 million viewers. By way of comparison, the big ratings winners that night were the 2019 U.S. Open Golf Championship (7.29 million) and 60 Minutes (4.67 million in the same time slot). Trump managed to beat out a rerun of America’s Funniest Home Videos (3.50 million). The week before, ABC had run Celebrity Family Feud in the slot and that had 6.1 million viewers. Anyone think Trump gives a hoot about ratings? He's bigger than that, right?

The BBC review was interesting. Their DC correspondent, Anthony Zurcher, noted that when Trumpanzee started waxing eloquent about his tax returns, his chief of staff coughed to warn Trump to be careful. Trump reacted badly. "When Mick Mulvaney, acting White House chief of staff," wrote Zurcher, "coughed in the background of the Oval Office interview, Mr Trump became visibly upset and asked his top aide to leave the room. 'Let's do that over, he's coughing in the middle of my answer,' Mr Trump said. 'I don't like that, you know. I don't like that. If you're going to cough, please leave the room,' the president added, pointing and shaking his head in disapproval. 'You just can't, you just can't cough.' The exchange happened as Mr Trump defended his decision not to turn over his "fantastic financial statement" to the US Senate, adding that he 'might' reveal it someday."

For people waiting for the flat-out lies... well, they didn't have to wait long. [PolitiFact hasn't gone through all the lies yet, but they did publish an essay on how GOP pundits have been lying about the interview in an attempt to make Trump's comments and behavior look less criminal and treasonous but if you're interested, you'll have to avail yourself of the link and check it out yourself. Time to get back to the BBC and one of the mega-whoppers of the hour.]
The Trump campaign has fired several of its hired pollsters after leaks showed Mr Trump losing to Democrats next year in several key battleground states, according to US media.

But in the interview, Mr Trump denied there were any unflattering popularity figures, maintaining that his team's internal polls "show I'm winning everywhere."

He dismissed leaked opinion surveys showing Democratic White House hopeful Joe Biden leading in swing states such as Michigan and Wisconsin. Mr Trump stated that "those polls don't exist."

On Monday, he returned to the theme on Twitter, saying: "Only Fake Polls show us behind the Motley Crew"-- a reference to the crowded Democratic presidential field.




Trump argued that no president has ever been as mistreated as himself, including Abe Lincoln, who was shot dead.

"If you can believe it, Abraham Lincoln was treated supposedly very badly," he said. "But nobody's been treated badly like me."

Mr Trump, who calls himself a student of history, has previously drawn comparisons with the 16th president. During a rally last September in Montana, Mr Trump said Lincoln's legendary Gettysburg Address "was excoriated by the fake news."

And during his first election campaign, Mr Trump claimed: "With the exception of the late, great Abraham Lincoln, I can be more presidential than any president that's ever held this office."

Trump smiled and shrugged when ABC asked about reports of Navy pilots seeing unidentified flying objects.

"They do say, I mean, I've seen and I've read and I've heard, and I did have one very brief meeting on it," said the president. "But people are saying they're seeing UFOs.

"Do I believe it? Not particularly."

When ABC asked him if the US president would be made aware if there was evidence of extraterrestrials, Mr Trump did not directly answer the question.

He said: "Well, I think my great pilots, our great pilots would know. And some of them really see things that are a little bit different than in the past, so we're going to see, but we'll watch it."

With election season nearing, the Republican president indicated he would launch a new plan to revamp the nation's healthcare system.

"Obamacare has been a disaster," Mr Trump told ABC as he was driven in the presidential limousine dubbed The Beast.

He promised that the plan for "phenomenal healthcare" will be unveiled "in about two months, maybe less."

Mr Trump last week teased details at an unrelated White House event, saying: "Nobody knows what it is. It's going to be a big surprise, but it's going to be a very pleasant one."

Trump, who once promised to completely eliminate the national debt over two terms in office, defended its continued climb under his own watch.

"They doubled the debt on nonsense," he said of the Obama administration.

But when the interviewer noted the debt has not stopped accumulating during Mr Trump's presidency, he responded: "Sure. But I have to rebuild the military."

He added: "We have beautiful new F-35s and F-18s and new rifles, new uniforms."

Since Mr Trump took office, the US has added over $2tn (£1.6tn) to the federal debt, and it now stands at more than $22tn.

Another stiff: Hillary and Clinton the Broadway show, starring Laura Metcalf and John Lithgow folded after just over 100 performances, a month early. Reason: underwhelming ticket sales. The play, which cost $4.2 million to produce, began performances in March and drew mixed-to-positive reviews, but has struggled to fill seats, reaching only 36 percent of its gross potential in the last two weeks. Its cumulative box office stands at $4.7 million. That wasn't the first indication the public has had enough of the Clintons for a while. Recall last December when ticket prices for the Bill and Hillary 13-stop paid speaking tour were cut in half, and then in half again-- and in the futile hope to have some people in the seats, sold for just 10% of the original asking price?

People are not happy about politicians in general and have the feeling that we're being ripped off by then. A few, here and there, have been shot. That's a little extreme but ignoring them? Sounds about right, especially when it comes to putting more of our money in their pockets.

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Thursday, July 27, 2017

Worst President Ever Wants To Raise Taxes On The Internet To Get Even With The Washington Post's Owner

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The vindictive asshole Trump's supporters elected looks like he may be headed towards letting them down again-- this time over taxes. Who ever thinks about Republicans raising taxes. An effective multi-decade p.r. effort has persuaded Americans that Republican don't raise taxes-- although they certainly do. Trump's inclination to raise taxes on internet purchases, though, does't have anything to do with economics, just with his war against the muckraking journalists at the Washington Post, which is owned by Amazon founder and CEO Jeff Bezos.

Yesterday, at a Financial Services subcommittee hearing (Senate Appropriations Committee), Joe Manchin (D-WV) asked Trumpist Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin about internet taxes. As anyone who has bought anything on Amazon knows, Amazon does charge sales taxes-- at least in the 46 states that have sales taxes. But the Trump Regime claims that third party vendors on Amazon don't charges sales taxes. The Putin-placed ignorant and irrational asshole in the White House refers to that on Twitter as an "Amazon no-tax monopoly.

Trump is still furious at the Washington Post for making him into more of a laughingstock by exposing the fake Time Magazine covers he has hanging on the walls of his cheesy resorts and golf clubs. He;s pressuring Mnuchin to do something to cause Bezos pain.

Getting the feeling that Trump's time in the White House is likely to expire soon? BuzzFeed Editor-in-Chief Ben Smith penned a piece yesterday, Trump Is Failing As A President. But He’s Succeeding As Reality TV that gets right to the meat of the matter. When Señor Trumpanzee "was just starting out as a candidate for the presidency," he wrote, "he used to confuse ratings and polls. It was a meaningless eccentricity from a showbiz candidate going nowhere, a sign of the unreality of his campaign and of his own strange place in American culture. Now, it’s clear how badly a cosmopolitan media that may not have watched The Apprentice missed Trump’s continuous appeal. The sneers of New York tycoons who considered Trump a fraud, and of their media friends, couldn’t drown out the volume of the television, of The Apprentice and later the Celebrity Apprentice."
This isn’t an accident. Trump’s late publicist Jim Dowd recalled that, as a television actor, Trump, paid particular attention to markets in the midwest and south. "The Donald Trump post-first season of The Apprentice all of a sudden became a very popular figure on Main Street, U.S.A.," Dowd told Frontline. "So it was Wall Street before, and then it became Main Street to the point where we showed up in Denver for an event, and we had to have a separate room just for The Apprentice fans."

Jeff Zucker, Trump's erstwhile benefactor-- then of NBC, now leading #FakeNews CNN-- bet on The Apprentice in the waning days of the network's upscale, white Must-See-TV Thursday lineup, which included Friends and Will & Grace. But Trump, who Dowd said once served him and Apprentice creator Mark Burnett Oscar Mayer bologna so they could toast to a successful day of publicity with the sandwich meat, proved to have an unexpected appeal.

Trump wasn’t quite as bad a businessman as his detractors like to think-- their calculations of this return-on-investment typically leave out the staggering sums he dropped on his lifestyle. But he was a truly great publicist, and, it turned out, stellar television actor.

Now Trump is failing as a president by every measure-- popularity, global influence, a basic grasp on the levers of power. Perhaps most fatally, his incoherence has prevented him from projecting power through the federal government. He has been essentially irrelevant to the Republican health care agenda, except to draw out the process when Congress might have otherwise put the issue aside after the first disastrous attempt in the spring.

But the same instincts that have scuppered his presidency made for unbelievable, tremendous television.

"I’d be lying if I said I didn’t feel a frisson of anticipation when logging into Twitter early in the morning, knowing that the president of the United States could be tweeting about literally anything, no matter how strange or self-sabotaging,” the Trump critic and conservative writer who goes by the name Allahpundit wrote recently. "Is he going to start riffing on Obama’s birth certificate again? Might he be ready to flame Rosie O’Donnell?...Increasingly, The Trump Show isn’t a distraction from the Trump presidency. It is the Trump presidency.”

The ratings for the Trump show bear this theory out. They are, in a word, terrific: Fox News is still No. 1, even in its post-Bill O'Reilly incarnation; CNN, Zucker's kingdom, and Trump's stated enemy, keeps hitting quarterly highs in ratings; and MSNBC has directly benefited from Fox News' implosion, coinciding with Rachel Maddow's rise as the #resist hero. (Here’s a litany of other beneficiaries.) The television executives who felt qualms about syndicating the unfiltered Trump show through the Republican primaries are now cleansing their consciences with episode after episode of The Americans, produced for free by the American government.

This is classic reality television, down to its defining conventions. Perhaps the most memorable trope of reality TV-- popularized in the United States by Trump’s old Pygmalion, Burnett-- is the confessional interview. Those are the moments when a cast member directly addresses the camera, to tell us how they really feel. This is what happens on a Bachelorette date, when Rachel turns to the audience to say she needs Peter to assure her that he'll be ready for marriage at the end of this, or when one of the Real Housewives is filmed in formal dress in an ornate room and snipes about the lies of her castmates.

That moment-by-moment insight into the inner lives of the cast of Survivor: White House doesn’t always include those on-camera revelations, though Trump’s public disappointment with Jeff Sessions-- in interviews, on TV, at the White House and always with tension or even a tease about what could happen-- fits the genre perfectly.

More often, the confessionals come through leaks from the supporting characters: We know about Steve Bannon’s enmity for Jared Kushner, and his complex and shifting relationship with Reince Priebus. We know about Sean Spicer’s frustration, Rex Tillerson’s pique. Everyone is mad at Don Jr.! It’s an emotional mess.

And that twisting, ever fluid dynamic extends to each breaking news development. The country has been rapidly conditioned to wait for the drama of the emotional reaction-- the kind of torqued up authenticity on which reality TV thrives.

The White House reality show goes off the rails when it shifts into more scripted moments. In June, cabinet members heaped stilted praise on Trump for the cameras, and the audience winced.

"To me, that cabinet meeting, that was scripted,” one Emmy-nominated reality producer told BuzzFeed News. “It felt unreal, it felt fake, it felt inauthentic, it felt produced."

The ratings though-- the ratings are terrific. Better, in fact, than on The Apprentice as it aged. Jim Dowd, whose job as a publicist required he tell Trump about the show's diminished numbers, found himself unable to do it: "There’s about 10 people who cover ratings in terms of the publications that matter most," Dowd said. "And he would want to make sure I called all those 10 people and told them, 'No. 1 show on television, won its time slot,' and I’m looking at the numbers and at that point, say Season 5, for example, we were No. 72. I can’t tell that to him. I can’t say that. Maybe I should have, maybe I should have gotten Jeff Zucker involved, but he became kind of a monster when it came to these ratings."

Here, however, it’s hard to turn away.

And the recent rise of Anthony Scaramucci marks a kind of recognition that this is a show. Scaramucci is a television figure, a money manager known best for a conference he organized, and who played the role of hedge fund titan as Trump played real estate baron. A former talk show host who seemed to be working toward a CNBC show, he was hired for his cocksure grace in front of the camera.

Scaramucci recently suggested he’ll be adding an over-the-top morning show (as we say in the biz! BuzzFeed News recently announced one!) to the lineup. There could be “a desk on the White House lawn.” But that’s a crowded space. And the biggest TV show in history is already happening.

The rise of Trump has so many roots. Pundits routinely understate, though, the centrality of his television celebrity. And they miss its continuing power: Trump may not, yet, have figured out how to be president-- but he has monopolized our attention, dominated the narrative and the story, and it would be mistake to dismiss that power. A president doesn’t have to accomplish traditional things (policy, programs, reforms) to change the culture. What if once we start viewing major American institutions as players in the Trump Show, we can’t stop?

He’s failing at what used to be thought of as the presidency, but succeeding at reality television like no one ever has before. The question is whether there’s still a difference.

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