Can David Brat Be Ousted In November?

Ali on the left is running as a Whig. Spanberger has the mic and Ward is on the right

VA-07 is mostly famous because a nutty tea-party character, Dave Brat, defeated Eric Cantor, House Republican’s #2 leader in 2014, Canter had spent $2,940,932 in the primary alone and Brat spent $1,469,113 in both the primary and the general election. The district runs from north of Culpeper down to the suburbs west and northwest of Richmond and along the 360 in the west and as far as the Fort Pickett Military Reservation in the south. Most of the voters live in small towns around Richmond, like Glen Allen, Short Pump, Tuckahoe, Midlothian and Bon Air. Of the 10 counties, just 4 have the big voting populations: Henrico, Chesterfield, Hanover and Spotsylvania.

Trump did worse than McCain (54.3%) and worse than Romney (54.6%) but Hillary didn’t benefit. Trump beat her 50.5% to 44.0%, worse than Obama both times he ran. The PVI is R+6, which isn’t impossible for a Democrat in a wave election. Brat beat Eileen Bedell 217,968 (57.%) to 158,692 (42.1%). By the end of the 2017 FEC reporting deadline there were 7 Democrats competing to take on Brat, two of whom, Dan Ward, a Marine veteran and Abigail Spanberger, an EMILY’s List thing and former CIA agent, had raised enough money to run competitive races. (One, Helen Ali, has just decided to quit the Democratic primary and run as a Whig.)

The DCCC isn’t targeting it but if the wave is big enough, the district could flip. Gillespie’s margin of victory in the gubernatorial race was just 3.7 points. Local Democrats are optimist and say the district has the right blend of Democratic energy and Republican lethargy to become competitive in November.

“The district has suburban voters who are rejecting Trump, Democratic voters who are newly energized, and disaffected Republicans fleeing Dave Brat’s Tea Party-ism,” said Jesse Ferguson, a veteran Democratic operative who got his start in Virginia politics.

“It is an uphill race. But it’s not pushing a boulder up the hill.”

Republican officials concede the district may be competitive, and some are increasingly worried about the status of Brat’s campaign and the challenge he may face.  Former Rep. Tom Davis, a Virginia Republican who previously ran his party’s campaign committee, said he doesn’t consider it a top-tier race, but noted that Brat could be vulnerable to a wave election.

“I think David’s got to run through the tape,” Davis said. “This is the kind of year where the Republicans see a big storm coming. They just don’t know, if it’s a strong windstorm, if it’s a category one or a category five.”

…[Ward and Spanberger] concede there are few policy differences between them, particularly on the major issues: Both support an assault-weapons ban and universal gun background checks, and both back Medicare X, a public option proposal from Sen. Tim Kaine, though neither opposes single-payer health care. In interviews, both emphasized the need for broadband Internet access in the rural parts of their district. The difference between them is mainly one of approach and style.

In a candidate forum Monday hosted by the Richmond University College Democrats, Ward consistently turned his attention to the Trump administration, criticizing the president and framing the race through the lens of what he argued are Republican abuses of power.

“Our institutions are what protect our democracy and our institutions are under assault from the inside out,” Ward said in an interview prior to the forum. “These folks are like termites, they’re doing it from the inside out. We need to take the House of Representatives.”

Spanberger, meanwhile, said in an interview that while there are very few issues she agrees with Trump on, she aims to be more muted in her criticisms of the current administration, instead focusing more on the ins and outs of policy and her positive vision for the district.

“He talks a lot about Trump, and a lot about standing up to Trump, and I talk a lot about putting us back on the right path. They’re very different pivots,” Spanberger said.

To win this district requires surging Democratic turnout and crossover support from Republicans, and both candidates are developing strategies for support from across the parties. Ward argued his background as a farmer would help him win votes from rural Republicans.

“I’ve always thought in order to win in this district it was going to take a rural veteran,” he said.

Spanberger argued she also has strong crossover appeal given her background, though her base of support could hail from the heavily Republican suburban area where she lives.

“We have across the board been able to attract a lot of those people,” Spanberger said. “People will say, ‘Even though you’re a Democrat…’

“It’s about bringing civility to the conversation and being a Democrat who’s willing to talk to Republicans, being a Democrat who’s willing to talk to independents,” she added.

For Republicans, there are major signs of concern in the district that, historically, has not been competitive. Last fall, Democrats knocked off three GOP incumbents in the House of Delegates whose seats overlap the district, and both Spanberger and Ward outraised Brat in the fourth quarter of 2017, though he led them in cash on hand. A Brat spokesman declined to comment or make the congressman available for an interview to discuss the race. The two-term lawmaker recently told Politico: “All I talk is policy.”

To avoid a competitive race, Davis said Brat would have to mend fences with establishment Republicans in his district four years after defeating Cantor.

“Has he built bridges or has he just gone back to his base? He can’t win this with base voters,” Davis said. “He’s going to need some more moderate Republicans that he’s not traditionally catered to.”

Nationally, Brat has built bridges-- Speaker Paul Ryan’s PAC maxed out a $5,000 donation to his campaign last year, along with those of more than a hundred other incumbents, and Rep. Steve Scalise, the Republican whip, is headlining an annual breakfast fundraiser for Brat next month.

Still, Republican operatives are prepared for the race to become competitive and believe an injection of outside money could prevent a damaging loss.

“Do I think that Brat is vulnerable? Yes. But Brat will be saved from electoral defeat because national Republicans will save the seat,” said the national strategist familiar with Virginia, who requested anonymity to speak frankly. “It won’t be anything that he’s done or will do because he’s not really putting himself in a position to win.”

Both Democrats are themselves potentially vulnerable to outside attacks. Republicans have made two things central to their campaigns this year: talking up their tax cuts, and linking Democrats to Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi.

On the tax bill, Spanberger criticized it as “wholly irresponsible” because it added to the national debt, and said she doesn’t support making the individual tax cuts, which are currently set to expire in a decade, permanent. Ward said he supports repealing the entire tax law outright. Though Republicans are likely to run ads saying Ward would back tax hikes if he becomes the nominee, he said he welcomes that debate.

The “tax break these folks have received has been nominal,” he said of middle-class cuts compared to those for the wealthy and corporations. “It’s been pennies compared to where most of the money is going.”

On the other issue, Pelosi, the candidates diverge. Spanberger praised the former speaker, but said she would “very much like to vote for someone else,” and said the party needs new leadership. She acknowledged, however, that Republicans were “100 percent” likely to still run ads linking her to Pelosi if she becomes the nominee, and admitted they might be somewhat effective regardless of her position.

Ward, on the other hand, said he’d have no problem backing Pelosi as leader-- though he said he could also vote for a challenger depending on who emerged. When asked about ads linking him to Pelosi and the potential to damage his campaign, he responded: “Let them run the ads.”

“Why do we Democrats allow Republicans to demonize our people?” he said. “If we acquiesce to that pressure to replace Nancy Pelosi as speaker, whoever follows her is going to be Demon No. 2, and we have to stop giving them that space.”

Voters Don't Want To See Ryan OR Pelosi As The Next Speaker-- Are We Helpless To Guarantee That?

Most voters want them both gone already

The most current generic congressional vote polling-- by Fox News, NBC/Wall Street Journal, PPP, ABC/Washington Post, Quinnipiac, NPR?Marist, Reuters/Ipsos, and Economist/YouGov-- show the Democrats outpolling the Republicans by, on average 9.6%. Ironically, the poll with the worst news for the Republicans was done by Fox. Among registered voters 50% would like to see Democrats leading Congress and just 35% would prefer to see Republicans running Congress after the next election. That same Fox poll also shows the Democratic Party with a 51%/44% favorable/unfavorable rating while the Republicans have a 40%/55% favorable/unfavorable rating.

John Rogers, the monkey the House Republicans hired to run their version of the DCCC, the NRCC, told The Hill that Republicans would benefit from the years-long attempts to use Nancy Pelosi against Democratic congressional candidates. He admits that the NRCC's main weapon to try to hold onto the House is by making every race about her. "In reality," he said, "next fall is going to come down to whether or not you want to reinstitute Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House."

It's true that the Republicans have become a one-trick pony with that narrative and have every intention of using it again, the way they used it against Jon Ossoff in Georgia this year. Ossoff wads an extraordinarily weak and pointless candidate-- a real DCCC special-- and it was predictable that he would be vulnerable to that kind of idiotic attack. The DCCC doesn't seem capable of the kind of single-minded aggressiveness it takes to turn the tables on the GOP by making Ryan into the kind of villain the Republicans have made Pelosi into. The irony there is that Ryan is already more disliked nationally than Pelosi is-- even after years of Republican slander against her!

Ryan's unfavorable rating is now at 49.3%, compared to Pelosi's 48.7%. When questioned about the GOP efforts to tie Democratic candidates to Pelosi, a DCCC spokesman responded that "Speaker Ryan is increasingly unpopular as he forces the most vulnerable House Republicans to walk the plank on jacking up healthcare costs and increasing middle-class taxes to fund handouts for the rich and large corporations. The midterms will be a referendum on Republicans, and it’s clear that they are failing to come to terms with that reality."

But some of the GOP incumbents most closely tied to Ryan-- take Sean Duffy in Wisconsin as an example-- aren't even being targeted by the DCCC which can't see further than going after Republicans in districts Hillary won. What makes that one-dimensional strategy even more pathetic is the horrifying DCCC recruiting, which focuses on everything people hate about Democrats-- particularly their ties to Wall Street and their wishy-washy Republican-lite stands.

I reached out to several campaigns to ask candidates and campaign managers what they plan do about the NRCC threat. Most wanted to keep it off the record. You can see why from this response from one of the best and most admired campaign managers in the country: "I respect Pelosi, " he told me this morning, "but it's time for her to pack it in-- past time. She's hurting the party's chance to decisively win the midterms and put a check on Trump. I know it's not fair, but the Republicans have succeeded in demonizing her, especially with independent voters... We're going to have to tell our voters that we don't want her or Ryan as Speaker.. We feel bad about equating them both but not even Democrats in [our district] want to see her back with the Speaker's gavel... I agree with you that Hoyer and Crowley would be much worse party leaders but most voters have never heard of either one of them and the Republicans can't use them against candidates... unless they read some obscure blog like yours."

Tom Guild is Oklahoma City knows he's definitely going to face a barrage of ads conflating him with Pelosi. He doesn't seem worried. "Because of the extreme dysfunction in Congress today," he told me today, "I’m going to wait and see who the candidates for House Democratic Leader/Speaker are before deciding which person to support. It would be hard to do worse than Paul Ryan has done as the leader of House Republicans. I want a progressive who can pass an increase to the minimum wage, single payer health care, a massive infrastructure bill to rebuild our crumbling infrastructure while creating millions of good paying jobs, direct and hasten the transition to renewable energy sources, and invest in America before looking for new overseas military adventures. I will take this decision seriously and am not in anyone’s hip pocket. Where have you gone Joe DiMaggio (or his closest living iteration in Congress)? Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you."

Katie Hill has obviously thought this over, but is it enough? She told me that "From the very beginning, I have been clear that my loyalty is and will always be to the people of the 25th district-- not to party, not to donors, not to corporations or special interests. We know the Republicans will use every line of attack they can think of, but I am indisputably a political outsider and a homegrown candidate, not someone brought in by the Democratic party to run in this district. The voters of the 25th have been getting to know and trust me through our videos and through my presence in the community. They know I am honest and straightforward, and not afraid to stand up to anyone who tries to back me into a corner or do wrong by our community-- no matter who that comes from. I consider that trust sacred and will always honor it. I know my community will understand that, and will not be fooled by the RNC trying to equate me to or pretend that I am beholden to anyone else."

James Thompson, currently running for Congress in a Kansas rematch, has a very different perspective on this than anyone else because he just went through the experience a few months ago. "I ran for Congress in the 4th District of Kansas in the very first Special Election after Trump was inaugurated," he told us. "The DCCC claims they did not help my race because they did not want to 'nationalize it.' Yet, as soon as I received the nomination from the Kansas Democratic Party to run for Congress, the Republican Party 'nationalized' the campaign by immediately tying me to Leader Pelosi, saying she hand-picked me and that I was her puppet. Ron Estes and the Republicans in Kansas, led by the KOCH brothers ultra-conservative political machine, never met a lie they didn’t like. I had never met, nor even spoke with, Nancy Pelosi and yet was being branded like a bull with her unpopularity here in Kansas. She sure never helped my race, and the mere mention of her name hurt my campaign. The same ads used against Ossoff, were used against me by simply switching out his picture for mine. The night of the special election, Leader Pelosi called and offered her condolences for my loss. She was warm, friendly and sympathetic and I greatly appreciated her taking the time out of her busy schedule to call me. While I respect her as a person and her accomplishments as Speaker of the House, her time in leadership needs to end for the good of the Democratic Party. With better leadership from the party, we may have been able to harness the progressive wave sweeping the country and possibly win some of the Special Elections. The Democratic Party needs an infusion of new progressive leadership like Keith Ellison and Ro Khanna. Regardless of whether it is true, Republicans will brand every Democrat with the Pelosi brand in hopes of sinking campaigns in 2018 with the mere mention of her name. New leadership needs to take over and lead the fight for a 50 state strategy. If Leader Pelosi is still in office when I get to Congress, I will vote for new leadership that will ensure the Democratic Party fights in all 50 states."

One of our best congressional candidates: "Off the record, I'll be frank and say I think we need new leadership, I'm just not sure who." Another great congressional candidate who asked for anonymity told me "Off the record, I do not want Nancy Pelosi anywhere near my campaign. Thanks, but no thanks. She is toxic." Another candidate knows exactly who he wants to replace Pelosi and I think he'll be announcing it soon.

David Gill, the Blue America-backed candidate in the central Illinois district held by Ryan puppet Rodney Davis, is certainly not going to vote for Ryan (if he's even still in Congress when Gill gets there in 2019). He told us that "If the Republicans try to attack me as a lapdog for Mrs. Pelosi, we will laugh and let voters know how utterly ridiculous that is. I defeated her chosen candidate in the primary of 2012, and I am in the process of trying to defeat her chosen candidate in the 2018 primary. Additionally, no U.S. House candidate in Illinois history has ever collected more signatures for an independent Congressional campaign than I did last year. Those 11,000+ signatures will make it very clear to voters that my votes in Congress will not be dictated to me by Mrs. Pelosi or anyone else."

Jared Golden is running for the Maine seat held by Trump rubber stamp Bruce Poliquin. He's the Majority Whip of the state legislature and he has a clear understanding about how legislative bodies work. One of his primary opponents happens to be straight out of Pelosi's coterie of super-wealthy elites. And he didn't mince any words. "It’s time for a new generation of leaders in Washington. My support will go to the leader that shows me they care about and understand the priorities of working class people-- it’s got to be someone serious about rebuilding an economy that doesn’t leave small rural states like Maine behind. I want to serve with leaders that demonstrate they have the courage to fight for progressive values and the ability to work across the aisle to deliver results. We need service-driven leaders who will do what’s best for this country and I believe that’s to fight for the great majority-- working and middle class people."

Derrick Crowe, the Blue America-endorsed candidate in the Austin-San Antonio district Lamar Smith is giving up, told us that "Jon Ossoff lost because he refused to fight for key progressive values, concern-trolled government spending like a Republican, and didn't live in the district. His campaign also lacked message discipline and kept throwing spaghetti at the wall to see what would stick. When that's the campaign you run, you let the other side define you, and you don't sufficiently inspire your base to close the gap for you. To put it mildly, that's not the campaign we're running here in TX-21. A vote for me is a vote for a clear set of progressive values that puts us on the side of the working class against corporate power and the billionaires. Anyone who wants my vote for Speaker of the House will have to demonstrate that they are the best vehicle to advance those values in Congress."

Jenny Marshall, the progressive Democrat running for the Piedmont seat Virginia Foxx occupies toked us that "People are looking for a person that can relate to the everyday struggles of average Americans. They need to know that their representative is not bought and paid for by corporate interests. We are separating ourselves from candidates who do not support like progressive issues like single payer health care, campaign finance reform including eliminating corporate donations to campaigns. These issues are important for our communities and they need to know that they have a strong choice that supports what they need."

Doug Applegate has a similar perspective-- as well as some creepy Pelosi candidate backed by big money in his primary. When I asked him if Issa and the GOP Machine will try to conflate him with Pelosi, he laughed and said, "You’ve got to be kidding me. Since nearly beating Darrell Issa after the DCCC came in late in the race only 67 days before election day 2016, corporate and establishment Democrats have only indicated that the last person they want to join their club is a Marine Colonel. While Dem Hill members insist they won’t endorse until after the primary, multiple conservative Democrat Congressmen endorse Mike Levin whose corporation received an 'undisclosed payment/investment' from Exxon in the summer of 2016. Despite that bump from the biggest carbon fuel producer, Levin still insists that he’s an environmental lawyer.  As a former Clinton aide and Qualcomm heiress, a crowbar couldn’t pry Sara Jacobs away from moneyed corporate Democrats and Pelosi. I’m not a corporate Democrat; I’m not an establishment Democrat. I’m a Marine Colonel who will fight for change, for a new labor movement, for single payer healthcare, for public preschool to public university regardless of parental income, for ending oil subsidies that will free market forces to reach 100% renewable energy by 2027 and for real change. The only label you will ever stick on me is 'he’s a Marine Colonel who will fight like hell for change.'"

Time For The DC Parties To Dump Ryan And Pelosi For Their Own Good

About a year ago, Pew released a survey about party affiliation in the U.S. One conclusion you would have drawn is that registered voters who identify as independent might soon outnumber both Republicans and Democrats-- combined. More recently-- like last week-- a Harvard-Harris Poll showed net favorability for some of the country's most prominent political leaders. The only leaders from either party with statistically more positive support than negativity are Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. People-- as in registered voters-- absolutely hate both Trump and Hillary, Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI), House minority leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY). The public rejects these people-- yet they still are managing to control the levers of power in Washington. The whole corrupt, money-fueled system stinks to High Heaven.

It's hard to imagine Pelosi being able to hold on much longer. Her support inside the House Democratic caucus is finally evaporating. Virtually no one I speak to-- neither incumbents nor challengers-- want to see her leading the party again and the only thing that keeps her in place are the alternatives-- all of which are far worse than she is: Steny Hoyer, Joe Crowley, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Tim Ryan-- or is he on to the presidential sweepstakes now? I called an even dozen House candidates yesterday and even the ones-- about half-- who said they would vote for her as Speaker in 2018, refused to let me use their names. "She's pretty toxic among the independent voters here," one candidate told me. "I don't have anything against her but it isn't just Republicans who hate her. Many Democrats want to see her just move on and make room for someone else... Her time is over."

Yesterday was even worse for Paul Ryan in that regard. Dave Weigel, reporting from Minnesota for the Washington Post went to a Republican candidates' primary forum and found that GOP candidates are as sick of Ryan as Republican voters are. When the a member of the audience asked the 5 Republican congressional candidates if they plan to vote for Ryan to lead their party, 4 refused to back him. Watch at the 56 minute mark:

“I think he’s going in the wrong direction,” said state Rep. Tim Miller.

“I would prefer someone else,” said commercial pilot Dave Hughes.

“We’ll see who runs for speaker,” said businessman Jim Hagedorn.

“He might not even run for speaker,” said St. Louis County Commissioner Pete Stauber.

...Public polling, however, has seen Ryan’s favorable rating and approval rating tumble since the start of the Trump presidency. According to HuffPost’s poll tracker, Ryan’s approval rating was barely underwater, 35/41, the week of Trump’s inauguration. Today, it’s underwater by close to 20 points, 30/49; Pelosi’s rating is 29/49. A Bloomberg poll, conducted shortly before the effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act failed in the Senate, found 61 percent of Republican voters approving of Ryan, with every other voting bloc viewing him negatively.

“His numbers are no better than mine,” Pelosi said after Democrats lost a special election in Georgia’s 6th District. “The difference is we don’t engage in the politics of personal destruction.”

Republicans remain confident that Pelosi, who after Hillary Clinton’s defeat has become the focus of most negative conservative ads, is far more polarizing than Ryan. The Democrats’ 2018 House map, skewed by gerrymandering in key Rust Belt states and parts of the south, sets up races in suburbs where Pelosi remains toxic.

But the reluctance on display in Minnesota came from candidates running in three of the cycle’s 12 Trump/Democrat districts-- places where 2016 voters broke Republican for president, but sent a Democrat back to Congress. Trump’s surge among rural white voters nearly took out Rep. Tim Walz (D-MN), whose 1st District in the southern part of the state backed Barack Obama by 1.4 points, then backed Trump by 14.9 points.

Hagedorn, who was nearly elected by that swing, was among the candidates who refused to take a stand on Ryan this week. Saying he did not want to alienate any potential supporters, even “Washington Republicans,” he suggested that it was too early to ask candidates who they’d back for speaker.

...Only one of those candidates, trucking company owner and 7th District hopeful Matt Prosch, said he would back Ryan for speaker. His rivals, Hughes and Miller, veered between criticism of Ryan and hope that he could redeem himself.

“We’ve got to have to have leadership that ensures we do the will of the people,” Miller said. “Whoever that is, I’d support that.” Hughes, who lost to incumbent Rep. Collin C. Peterson (D-MN) in 2016, suggested that he was “not impressed” with Ryan and would see who else ran.

Stauber, who has no primary challenger as he seeks to defeat Rep. Rick Nolan (D-Minn.), was just as lukewarm about Ryan. “When I’m in Congress, I’ll let you know, because people can change their views, change their ways,” he said. “People have the ability to change, and I hope he does.”

Answers like that could come back to haunt Republican candidates. In 2016, the CLF and the affiliated American Action Network spent $4.8 million on advertising against Nolan, a resilient campaigner who held on by just 2,072 votes. This year, as the CLF has focused on defending incumbents, it’s made clear that Republicans who buck Ryan won’t get help. That was demonstrated first when Rep. David Young’s (R-IA) initial opposition to the ACA repeal effort ended the CLF’s investment in his district.

“Our mission is to ensure that Paul D. Ryan remains Speaker after 2018,” said CLF executive director Corry Bliss. “Obviously in allocating resources to accomplish that goal, CLF will prioritize friends and family first.”

Stauber, the goon running against progressive Democrat Rick Nolan said that "I won’t ask Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren to come to my district." He better hope Nolan doesn't either. The sprawling 8th district, which goes from the exurbs not of Minneapolis west to Brainerd and north to Hibbing, Duluth and the Canadian border. Although Obama won the district comfortably both times he ran, MN-08 Democrats couldn't have asked for a worse candidate than Hillary Clinton. The blue collar district flipped to Trump and gave him a 54.2% to 38.8% win. Clinton underperformed Obama by 13 points. Bernie won the MN-08 caucuses by a gigantic margin-- 65.2% to 34.8%. District-wide, he had 12,096 caucus votes to Trump's 3,324. Bernie beat Hillary in every single one of the district's 18 counties and he beat Trump in all 18 as well. Stauber better hope Nolan doesn't invite him to the district. Bernie is, after all, the most popular national political leader in the district. I'm sure Nolan would love to see Bernie debate Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell or, best of all, Señor Trumpanzee, right up in Duluth.