Orange Orangutan Will Have More Bad News For Americans Tonight

Last week Kaiser Health released their latest polling data on where Americans stand on healthcare. They found that "attitudes towards the Affordable Care Act (ACA) have shifted with a larger share reporting a favorable opinion towards the law (48 percent) than reporting an unfavorable opinion (42 percent). This is the highest level of favorability of the ACA measured in more than 60 Kaiser Health Tracking Polls since 2010 and is largely driven by a change in the views of independents, among which 50 percent now view the law favorably... The vast majority of Americans say it is either 'very important' (55 percent) or 'somewhat important' (29 percent) for ACA replacement plans to ensure that states that have received federal funds to expand Medicaid continue to receive those funds, with majorities of Democrats (95 percent), independents (84 percent), and Republicans (69 percent) saying it is important. And that's just one of a dozen recent polls showing the same thing. Pew's results show that 54% of Americans approve of the Affordable Care Act and only 43% disapprove. The Huffington Post tracker poll-- which combines the results of all recent polls-- shows that 47.8% favor Obamacare and 42.8% oppose it, the momentum clearly growing in favor.

So how his our contrarian authoritarian in the White House reacting? With Mnuchin and Mulvaney now confirmed and in place, Trump is bellowing about sharply increasing military spending and cutting spending on domestic programs-- especially ones the far right doesn't like-- healthcare and environmental protections. Yesterday he told all federal agencies to factor an increased share of the budget for military spending into their own budget requests for the next fiscal year. Cuts won't include Medicare and Social Security before the 2018 midterm elections but they will be "drastic" everywhere else. "Trump," reported the NY Times "will demand a budget with tens of billions of dollars in reductions to the Environmental Protection Agency and State Department, according to four senior administration officials with direct knowledge of the plan. Social safety net programs, aside from the big entitlement programs for retirees, would also be hit hard... [T]his plan-- a product of a collaboration between the Office of Management and Budget director, Mick Mulvaney; the National Economic Council director, Gary Cohn; and the White House chief strategist, Stephen K. Bannon-- is intended to make a big splash for a president eager to show that he is a man of action."

Trump’s top advisers huddled in the White House this weekend to work on his Tuesday night prime-time address. They focused on a single, often overlooked message amid the chaos of his first weeks in the White House: the assertion that the reality-show candidate is now a president determined to keep audacious campaign promises on immigration, the economy and the budget, no matter how sloppy or disruptive it looks from the outside.

“They might not agree with everything you do, but people will respect you for doing what you said you were going to do,” said Jason Miller, a top communications strategist on the Trump campaign who remains close to the White House.

“He’s doing something first, and there’s time for talk later,” Mr. Miller added. “This is ultimately how he’s going to get people who didn’t vote, or people who didn’t vote for him, into the fold. Inside the Beltway and with the media, there’s this focus on the palace intrigue. Out in the rest of the country, they are seeing a guy who is focused on jobs and the economy.”

The budget plan, a numerical sketch that will probably be substantially altered by House and Senate Republicans-- and vociferously opposed by congressional Democrats-- will be Mr. Trump’s first big step into a legislative fray he has largely avoided during the first 40 days of his administration.

Thus far, instead of legislating, he has focused on a succession of executive orders on immigration and deregulation written by Mr. Bannon’s small West Wing team.

Resistance from federal agencies could ease some of the deepest cuts in the initial plan before a final budget request is even sent to Congress. And Capitol Hill will have the last word.

To meet Mr. Trump’s defense request, lawmakers in both parties would have to agree to raise or end statutory spending caps on defense and domestic programs that were imposed by the 2011 Budget Control Act.

...In putting together their budget plans, White House officials are operating under the assumption that the rate of the United States’ economic growth this year will be 2.4 percent, according to one person who has been briefed on the matter. That is slightly ahead of current projections, but it is well below the 3 percent to 4 percent growth that Mr. Trump promised during the campaign.

For next year, the operating assumption is only slightly higher, that person added, a sign that the budget process will not be too out of step with economic reality.

The turmoil that has engulfed Mr. Trump’s West Wing is largely of his own devising-- part of a calculated effort by Mr. Bannon to move boldly despite his team’s lack of experience, and despite the reluctance of many mainstream Republicans to work for a president whom many of them opposed in the party’s brutal primaries.

...Lawmakers in both parties have complained that the president’s big words are not yet matched by detailed policy prescriptions or a legislative affairs team capable of executing such undefined promises as repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act or rewriting the tax code.

The budget outline will give Mr. Trump an opportunity to add some specifics to an agenda that has been defined by bellicose speech and the broadest possible policy strokes.

Still, aides said Mr. Trump did not plan to change his style for Tuesday’s address. The speech, they said, is likely to have more in common with his clipped inaugural address-- in which he declared, “The time for empty talk is over”-- than the fine-print litanies of policy proposals favored by President Bill Clinton or the high-flung invocations of national purpose preferred by President George W. Bush and Mr. Obama.

Mr. Trump’s team, conscious of his recent reversals and a first-month approval rating that is among the lowest ever recorded, has emphasized his determination to break the partisan gridlock and inaction that has kept congressional approval ratings in the 15 to 30 percent range for years.

At the start of an interview last week with Sean Hannity of Fox News at the Conservative Political Action Conference, Kellyanne Conway, the president’s counselor, called him “President Action, President Impact, Donald J. Trump.”

In a round-robin of Sunday show interviews, Stephen Miller, Mr. Trump’s policy adviser, maintained that the president had accomplished more in his first month than most of his predecessors had in their entire administrations.

In reality, most of Mr. Trump’s executive actions have had no more effect on actual policy than news releases. And his nail-in-the-coffin order on the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal came well after the agreement had been put on life support by labor protests and liberal opposition.

One West Wing official, who requested anonymity to speak candidly about strategy, said the administration craved the split-screen television images of Mr. Trump at round-table discussions with business executives every few days on one side, and the vehement protesters of his administration on the other.

But his critics say such photo opportunities are all an act, a not-very-entertaining real-life rendition of The Apprentice by an ineffective rookie president.

“This man is not a doer,” said Representative Nancy Pelosi, the House minority leader, who will host a Monday “pre-buttal” of Mr. Trump’s Tuesday speech. “Oh, please. He has nothing to show for what he’s been doing in office for 40 days. It’s all been squandered.”

So... what can we expect during the Trumpanzee congressional address tonight? I've been talking to the Democrats who most hate what he's doing to America and no one seems to be planning anything like what South Carolina neo-fascist slob Joe Wilson did during Obama's first State of the Union. Luis Gutiérrez (D-IL), who came up with the idea for boycotting the inauguration says he's going to tonight's speech. "This year," he said, "I do not plan to applaud this President or leap to my feet to give him a standing ovation --  even in the unlikely event he says something I agree with. No, I am not boycotting, but I am planning to essentially sit on my hands. I plan to listen to every word with rapt attention, but zero enthusiasm. I hope many of my colleagues feel similarly and join me in listening quietly... The core American values of equality, fair treatment, a day in court, and a government that is accountable to the people who vote --  these are all values that the Trump Administration flouts with arrogance and disdain. So, I will be there, with my guest, but I don’t plan on angling my way to the aisle, I do not plan to shout 'You Lie' even when he does, and I will also not be putting my hands together in support of his speech. He has a great deal of work to do for me to applaud him."

Gutiérrez's will be bringing Chicago immigration attorney Fidaa Rashid who works with a mostly Middle Eastern clientele-- those most directly targeted by Trump’s Muslim Ban-- as his guest tonight. She was born in the U.S. to parents who were refugees from Gaza. Raúl Grijalva's guest tonight will be Jacqueline García de Rayos, daughter of Guadalupe García de Rayos, the 20 year Arizona resident who went in for a routine check-in with immigration officials last month and was arrested on the spot and deported the next day, the first of Señor Trumpanzee's "bad dudes" to be deported. Jerry Nadler, Jared Polis and Mark Pocan are bringing DACA recipients as their guests and Pramila Jayapal is bringing Aneelah Afzali, Founder of the American Muslim Empowerment Network (AMEN).

Today's greatest graphic

Jim Murphy, an international gambling expert, has been writing about sports betting as well as handicapping theory and practice for over two decades. He's well-known as an odds making consultant for sports and "non-sport novelty bets" focused on the entertainment business, politics, nontraditional events, things like how many people would get whacked in the season premiere of The Sopranos. Today he's offering odds on what could happen at tonight's the State of the Trumpanzee Union.

Much like the Presidential Inauguration, the process as we know it today is a mishmash of precedent combined with a healthy dose of political self importance. Several weeks before the address, the Speaker of the House formally ‘invites’ the President to speak to the joint Congress. Like a hot Hollywood party, the number of people who can attend and how many guests they can bring is strictly limited. Every member of Congress gets a ‘plus one’ and can invite one guest. The Speaker of the House can invite 24 guests who sit with him in his box. Even the President is limited in the number of guests he can invite-- the First Lady gets in by virtue of her position but 24 guests are allowed to join her. The Cabinet, Supreme Court justices, assorted members of the Diplomatic Corps, and Joint Chiefs of Staff are also in attendance and are the only attendees with the exception of the President and Speaker of the House that get "reserved seating." Congress has "first come first serve" seating.

Before we look at Murphy's odds, keep in mind that in betting lingo, a negative number (generally representing the "Favorite") = how much you have to bet to profit $100. A positive number = how much you profit if you bet $100.

Will Trump mention ‘fake news’ in his address to Congress?

Yes: -110
No: -110

Will Trump mention ‘Russia’ in his address to Congress?

Yes: +130
No: -150

Will Trump mention ‘Neil Gorsuch’ in his address to Congress?

Yes: -300
No: +250

Will Trump mention ‘Chuck Schumer’ in in his address to Congress?

Yes: -300
No: +250

Will Trump mention ‘9th Circuit’ in his address to Congress?

Yes: +450
No: -600

Will Trump mention ‘Twitter’ in his address to Congress?

Yes: +250
No: -400

Will Trump mention ‘Vladimir Putin’ in his address to Congress?

Yes: +175
No: -200

Will Trump mention the Academy Awards or any award winner in his address to Congress?

Yes: +450
No: -600

Will Trump’s address to Congress be disrupted by a protester?

Yes: +210
No: -250

Will Donald Trump be President on 12/31/17 at 11:59 PM Eastern?

Yes: -750
No: +500

Number Donald Trump Tweets that include the exact word ‘dishonest’ from 2/27/17 at 12:01 AM Eastern through 3/5/17 at 11:59 PM Eastern?

Over 2.5: +130
Under 2.5: -150

Number Donald Trump Tweets that include the exact word ‘fake’ from 2/27/17 at 12:01 AM Eastern through 3/5/17 at 11:59 PM Eastern?

Over 4.5: -120
Under 4.5: +100

Number Donald Trump Tweets that include the exact word ‘great’ from 2/27/17 at 12:01 AM Eastern through 3/5/17 at 11:59 PM Eastern?

Over 3.5: -150
Under 3.5: +130

Number Donald Trump Tweets that include the exact word ‘illegal’ from 2/27/17 at 12:01 AM Eastern through 3/5/17 at 11:59 PM Eastern?

Over 1.5: +110
Under 1.5: -130

Number Donald Trump Tweets that include the exact word ‘sad’ from 2/27/17 at 12:01 AM Eastern through 3/5/17 at 11:59 PM Eastern?

Over 1.5: +120
Under 1.5: -140

Which of these Donald Trump appointees will be the next to leave their job (fired or resigned)?

Sean Spicer: +450
Rex Tillerson: +750
Jeff Sessions: +750
Betsy DeVoss: +750
Kellyanne Conway: +750
James Mattis: +1150
Rick Perry: +1150
Steve Bannon: +1150
Ben Carson: +1150
Alexander Acosta: +1500
Elaine Chao: +2100
Ryan Zinke: +2100
Sonny Purdue: +2100
Steven Mnuchin: +2750
Wilbur Ross: +2750
Tom Price: +2750
John F. Kelly: +2750
Reince Priebus: +2750
Mike Pence: +4500

Will construction begin on Trump’s wall between the US and Mexico during 2017?

Yes: +500
No: -700

Will a US State declare independence before 12/31/18?

Yes: +7500
No: -12500

You Can Now Bet Money That Trump Will Be Impeached-- Real Money, Not Bit-Coins-- And Bye-Bye, Michael Flynn

According to the latest Gallup tracking poll only 40% of Americans approve of the job that Trump is doing, while 55% disapprove. That 55% has been growing every week since Trump was sworn in. The numbers are unprecedented. He's the most disliked newly inaugurated president in American history. And last week, PPP's latest presidential survey showed that the number of people ready for impeachment proceedings against Trump to begin has risen again-- now to an astronomical 46%. In a private DWT poll, we found that most of our readers think overt half the country will want to see Trump impeached before spring is over. Putin may still be happy, but Americans have gotten sick of Trump a lot sooner than they ever have of any other president.

Sunday, Politico reported that betting houses are already wagering on how soon Trump will be impeached. (I may not be getting this exactly right, but when Bill Maher asked Al Franken something like that on his show Friday, Franken said the because Republicans control both the House and the Senate it could be months before they work up the courage to start the process.) According to Politico's report "Gambling houses all over the world are taking in action on whether Trump, inaugurated just last month, will resign or be impeached. And the odds aren’t as long as you might think."

Ladbrokes, the British oddsmaking giant, has Trump’s chances of leaving office via resignation or impeachment and removal at just 11-to-10, or just a little worse than even money. The odds of Trump being impeached this year in the House of Representatives are only 4-to-1, according to the Irish bookmaker Paddy Power, despite GOP control of the chamber. You can win $180 on a $100 bet with Bovada, the online gaming site, that Trump won’t make it through a full term-- though the bet is off if Trump passes away during the next four years.

PaddyPower

All in all, Trump has meant big business for the international gambling industry. There’s always been betting on politics-- mostly as a novelty around election season-- but professional bookies say Trump’s unlikely victory and tumultuous transition mean that gamblers are jonesing to wager on his presidency.

“From a betting perspective, Donald Trump’s presidency has triggered a massive boom for these kinds of markets,” said Alex Donohue, the PR manager of Ladbrokes. “With Donald Trump, everything he does, it can be turned into speculation, and that can be turned into gambling.”

...Any actual movement on impeachment wouldn’t come until Americans have turned on Trump en masse. And while Trump is the least-popular newly elected president in modern history, he retains a core of support that has yet to abandon him... Lewis Davey, a spokesman at Paddy Power, called the early days of Trump’s presidency a “roller coaster” and noted the widespread public interest in betting on its future.

“With such little political experience and a rocky start in the White House, it’s understandable people have their doubts on Trump,” Davey said. “We’re currently offering 4-to-1 for Trump to be impeached in the first six months.”

...Paddy Power offers some even more exotic options, pegged to recent White House stumbles. After Trump counselor Kellyanne Conway referenced the fictional “Bowling Green massacre,” there’s an active wager for the next Trump staffer “to quote a fake terror attack.” The favorite there is Sean Spicer, the White House press secretary, at slightly worse than even money (5-to-6).

Spicer is also the favorite to be the first Trump staffer or appointee to leave his post. The odds of Spicer, the former Republican National Committee communications director, leaving by the end of March are 4-to-1, according to Bovada. Bettors can get 10-to-3 odds if Spicer leaves in the second quarter of this year, 9-to-1 in the third quarter, 12-to-1 in the fourth quarter and 4-to-7 odds of making it into 2018.

“Trump is the gift that keeps on giving,” Paddy Power’s Davey said. “We’ve got a bonanza of betting specials on The Donald. When Trump took to Twitter [last week] to defend [daughter] Ivanka after Nordstrom dropped her clothing line, we were out with a [betting] market on next retailer to drop the Ivanka brand next.” (The current favorites are TJ Maxx at 4-to-1, Walmart at 5-to-1 and Amazon at 6-to-1.)

Perhaps the most unusual-- and certainly most lurid-- wager is the 4-to-1 odds offered by Paddy Power that the alleged Russian video of Trump outlined in the dossier compiled by a former British intelligence agent will appear on a pornographic website.

“Trump's character has captured the imagination of the public” overseas said Davey, who compared following his presidency to “watching your favorite soap [opera].”

Anyone who bet on Flynn being the first of the Trump monstrosities to be thrown overboard, would have won tonight. He was asked to walk the plank-- and he did so, just hours after Kellyanne Con-man announced on live TV that he still had Señor Trumpanzee's full confidence. No one knows when we'll find out how much the Russians had been paying him, but you can bet on that coming out soon too. Trumpanzee has named Lt. General Joseph Keith Kellogg, Jr. (Ret) as Acting National Security Advisor. And... Jared Kushner-in-law is searching for a Flynn replacement. I'm not kidding. No bets, though, at least not yet, on an assassination attempt or on Trump dying from stress, over-eating or... God's mercy on our country.

Joe Scarborough on Kellyanne Con-Man: "Counselor to the president Kellyanne Conway’s assertion that former national security adviser Michael Flynn enjoyed 'the full confidence of the president' just hours before he offered his resignation is proof that President Donald Trump’s former campaign manager is 'out of the loop' and acting recklessly, MSNBC host Joe Scarborough said Tuesday morning. 'She goes out and lies and you find out about those lies a couple hours later,' Scarborough said, addressing Morning Joe panelist Willie Geist. 'Or if she's not lying, Willie, she is-- actually what I’ve heard she is-- so out of the loop. She's in none of the meetings and she just goes out without talking without having the facts.'"




UPDATE: What About Trump?

While Paul Ryan and his congressional Republicans are trying to cover this up and just "move on," no one else thinks this episode began or ended with Flynn. Time for Congress to get busy and get to the bottom of what kind of contacts the Trumpists have had with Putin. As Michael Moore tweeted this morning, "Let's be VERY clear: Flynn DID NOT make that Russian call on his own. He was INSTRUCTED to do so.He was TOLD to reassure them. Arrest Trump." And Tom Steyer made much the same case: "Flynn's ties to Russia are a problem -- Trump's ties are a bigger problem. What did he know and when did he know it?" Adam Schiff is the ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee. Here's his statement:

Putin's response, channeled through his now clearly owned and operated Wikileaks shills: "Trump's National Security Advisor Michael Flynn resigns after destabilization campaign by US spies, Democrats, press." According to a report in this morning's Washington Post, "The heads of the foreign affairs committees in both Russia’s upper and lower houses of parliament chalked up Michael Flynn’s resignation to a dark campaign of Russophobia in Washington, and said it would undermine relations between the White House and the Kremlin." And from the Russian Embassy, already discredited lies... burger anyone? With paper towels:

It was Bannon who gave Flynn the final shove out the door, according to this morning's NY Times. "Stephen K. Bannon, the president’s chief strategist, asked for Mr. Flynn’s resignation-- a move that he has been pushing for since Friday, when it became clear that the national security adviser had misled Mr. Pence." Flynn was reported to be "sullen." Flynn's crackpot son, Michael, Jr., the one who made up the story about Hillary running a child molestation ring out of a DC pizzeria, tweeted that his father was done in by a "disinformation campaign." And then immediately deleted the account.